Project Syndicate - The Democratic Turkey NATO Needs -- Jul 6, 2026 -- Özgür Özel

 Project Syndicate

The Democratic Turkey NATO Needs

Jul 6, 2026

Özgür Özel

At NATO's upcoming summit in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will seek to portray his country as stable, confident, and essential to Western security. But only the last one is true, which is why the restoration of democracy in Turkey is more than a domestic concern.

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ANKARA—When NATO leaders arrive in Ankara for their annual summit on July 7–8, they will be meeting in a country whose strategic importance is unquestioned, but whose democratic foundations are fracturing. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has governed Turkey for more than two decades—longer than any elected leader in the history of the Turkish Republic.

Today, Turkey stands at an inflection point. Given the country’s increasingly centralized and personalistic rule since 2003, the question is no longer whether change is needed, but whether citizens will be allowed to pursue it freely and fairly through democratic means.

With Turkey’s immediate region riven by wars and instability extending from Ukraine to the Middle East, it is clear to almost every Turkish citizen that their country’s future matters not only to them, but to global security. At the same time, many people in Turkey are fearful of their future, having lost confidence in a government that has struggled to provide economic stability, predictable governance, and confidence in public institutions. Inflation has devastated household incomes. Young people increasingly see limited opportunities. Foreign policy has become more transactional and less predictable. Confidence in the judiciary, the rule of law, and public institutions has steadily eroded.

The key question confronting Turkey today is one of legitimacy. Governments can sometimes survive economic downturns. But they struggle when citizens stop believing the political system is fair. Rather than competing on a level playing field, Erdoğan has increasingly relied on state institutions, particularly the judiciary, to weaken political rivals and preserve his hold on power.

Voters in Turkey have already signaled their desire for change. In the 2024 local elections, our party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), emerged as Turkey’s leading political force. Rather than accepting the message delivered by voters, the government intensified pressure on its political opponents.

Our party’s presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who has defeated Erdoğan-backed candidates repeatedly in Turkey’s largest city, has been imprisoned. More than 30 opposition mayors remain behind bars in pre-trial detention. Prosecutors are seeking a cumulative sentence measured not in years but in millennia. The government has even attempted to invalidate our party convention years after it was held in an effort to reshape the leadership of the main opposition. The distinction between legal process and political intervention has become increasingly difficult to discern.

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In the days preceding the NATO summit, the government’s increasingly defensive posture has been obvious. Authorities detained hundreds of innocent people in Ankara in sweeping operations ahead of the gathering. Officials describe these as anti-terrorism measures. Yet in a country where judicial independence has been severely weakened, such claims inevitably invite scrutiny. Reports indicate that those detained include activists, lawyers, journalists, academics, environmentalists, and elderly citizens.

The effort to manage appearances extended beyond arrests. Screens and barriers erected along parts of the route from the airport to the city center, reportedly to obscure visible signs of economic hardship, reveal a government more concerned with controlling perceptions than addressing underlying problems.

Erdoğan seeks to portray Turkey as stable, confident, and essential to Western security. At the Ankara summit he will emphasize Turkey’s geopolitical importance while presenting himself as indispensable in navigating an increasingly turbulent region. Yet governments secure in their legitimacy rarely feel compelled to treat peaceful dissent, civic activism, or the possibility of protest as threats to public order.

Merely holding power does not confer legitimacy. Erdoğan retains control of the state and its machinery, but his increasing reliance on judicial pressure, administrative coercion, and the seizure of businesses, institutions, and assets rather than democratic consent has cost him the confidence of millions of citizens.

This model of rule cannot be sustained indefinitely. Turkey has become deeply polarized and increasingly exhausted—socially, economically, and politically. The demand for democratic accountability has not disappeared. It has merely been deferred.

Turkey’s strategic importance is not in dispute. Its importance, both to NATO and within its region, stems not from its ability to solve every crisis, but from its position at the center of many of them—from Russia’s war against Ukraine to the instability stretching from Syria to Iran.

For that reason, Turkey’s political trajectory is not merely a domestic matter. A country of nearly 90 million people, a major military power, and a pivotal NATO member cannot indefinitely separate political legitimacy from national stability. Repression may create the appearance of order, but it cannot produce durable security.

Turkey’s allies must learn to look beyond the current government and the disorder it has caused, and engage not only with those who hold power today but also with the democratic future they no longer credibly represent. Governments and leaders come and go. Turkey and its people endure. And Turkey’s people are determined to build a country that is free and democratic at home, reliable abroad, and fully committed to the rule of law. That is the Turkey we are preparing to build: prosperous, confident in its institutions, and a strong, constructive actor in international peace and security.

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Özgür Özel

Özgür Özel

Writing for PS since 2026

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Özgür Özel is the leader of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party and a member of Parliament from Manisa province.

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