The NATO Summit
July 6, 2026
Starting tomorrow, Ankara will host a two-day NATO Summit. Looking broadly at Türkiye’s relations with its allies, the problems are the country’s steep democratic decline and the AKP government’s Islamist agenda, including its relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Nevertheless, for the West, these are no longer an issue but a “given” that can be ignored in a strictly transactional relationship.
Our European partners are delighted that Türkiye’s accession process is dead and buried. And since Ankara partnered with Israel to oust Syria’s President Assad, Türkiye’s relationships with the aforementioned groups are tolerable for Washington, as long as Ankara remains mindful of the limits. However, there is an overarching problem of a lack of mutual trust between Türkiye and the West.
Beyond these, there is one specific question: How to deal with the lasting negative consequences of Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400s?
The downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber on November 24, 2015, led to tensions between Ankara and Moscow, putting their decades-long cooperation in danger. Following the incident, President Putin directed harsh accusations against Ankara because the Turkish government immediately denied Russia’s charges and then continued with its bravado, upping the ante. This, however, could not continue. Six days after the downing of the Russian aircraft, the then Prime Minister Davutoğlu rushed to Brussels.
He and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg held a joint press conference during which the latter supported Türkiye’s version of the incident, reiterated its right to defend its borders, and urged calm.
Davutoğlu stressed that the Turkish-Syrian border is also a NATO border, that the violation was not only of the Turkish border but also of a NATO border, and he thanked all NATO Allies for their solidarity with Türkiye.
In brief, it seemed that the downing of the Russian Su-24 helped Türkiye and NATO to remember one another, and NATO countries preferred to avoid an unnecessary confrontation with Russia.
Soon, bravado gave way to realities. Ankara had to recognize that confrontation with Russia was not sustainable. In June 2016, Turkey apologized for the incident, and an effort to restore the relationship was launched.[i] However, misfortunes were not over. On 19 December 2016, Andrei Karlov, the Russian Ambassador to Turkey, was assassinated by an off-duty Turkish police officer with dubious links, at an art exhibition in Ankara.
In 2017, Türkiye signed a major weapons deal with Russia for the S-400s. NATO allies were critical of the deal, but Ankara said it was a sovereign decision. As Washington’s criticism grew more vocal, Ankara said it was a “done deal.”
Since Ankara’s underlying threat assessment for the purchase of the S-400 missile defense system remains unexplained to this day, one cannot but conclude that this was the price Türkiye had to pay to put relations with Russia back on track. Yet, ever since, the S-400s, sitting in our weapons depots, have become a major problem in Ankara’s relations with Washington, blocking Türkiye’s participation in the F-35 fifth-generation fighter program and more.
This week, President Trump will attend the NATO summit in Ankara. This is not a bilateral visit. Nonetheless, his praise for President Erdoğan has raised the Turkish government’s expectations for the summit to a high level. The meeting is thus presented as a turning point not only for the Alliance but also for Türkiye, enhancing the AKP government’s global standing, regardless of our democratic and economic decline. However, the government should bear in mind that President Trump is a dealmaker, that his gifts and even his verbal favors always come at a high price.
In the bilateral talks between Presidents Trump and Erdoğan, the F-35s, the sale of aircraft engines to Türkiye, and defense cooperation would be high on the agenda. Trump may also suggest improved relations with Israel. His host is likely to ask for a role in ending the war in Ukraine.
At present, the AKP government is focused on the NATO Summit. However, the Summit could be followed by critical domestic developments until the Parliament’s summer recess later in the month.
Looking back, I cannot help but remember President Obama’s visit to Ankara in 2009. At the time, Türkiye, a NATO ally engaged in political reform and accession negotiations with the EU, was the only hope in democratizing the Middle East. Obama arrived in Türkiye after attending G20, NATO, and EU-US summits in Europe. This was his first bilateral overseas visit.
The following paragraph from the speech he delivered before the Turkish Parliament on April 6, 2009, reflected the purpose of the visit:
“This morning I had the great privilege of visiting the tomb of your extraordinary founder of your republic. And I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Ataturk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy, and that is the work this assembly carries on today…” (emphasis added)
The message was clear: Türkiye, with its secular democracy, sets an example for the Islamic world. Türkiye must continue moving forward on this path, and others should follow.
Today, unfortunately, we are an integral part of the undemocratic Middle East, and when we look behind, we don’t see any followers.
In the early 1950’s, Türkiye’s ruling Democratic Party was boasting that it was transforming Türkiye into a “small America”.
In his new memoir, “Communion,” Vice President Vance blames secularism for social strife and proposes faith as the solution.[ii]
Under President Trump and his Team of Three, perhaps today’s America is on the path toward becoming a “big Türkiye”.
[i] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36643435
[ii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/03/jd-vance-says-christianity-can-help-overcome-america-divisions/
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