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May 16, 2025 |
Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the Trump administration’s conflict mediation record so far and the U.S. push for deep-sea mining. |
But first, here’s a preview of three major European elections taking place on Sunday: |
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| Presidential candidates Nicusor Dan and George Simion during a live electoral debate ahead of the second round of Romania’s presidential election, in Bucharest, May 8, 2025 (photo by Alex Nicodim for NurPhoto via AP). |
Portugal’s general elections are expected to result in a nearly identical outcome to the vote just over a year ago, with the center-right Democratic Alliance, or AD, projected to win the most seats but fall short of a majority, while the Socialist party is likely to finish second and the far-right Chega party third. The AD has historically refused to enter a coalition with Chega, ruling instead as a minority government for the past year. |
In Romania’s presidential runoff election, far-right candidate George Simion will face off against the centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan. Simion finished far ahead of Dan in the rerun first round last month, riding a wave of discontent over the cancellation of the results from November’s first-round presidential vote. Still, polls have tightened ahead of the second round. |
Poland will vote in the first round of a presidential election to replace incumbent Andrzej Duda, who is term-limited. Aligned with the hard-right Law and Justice, or PiS, party, Duda has blocked much of the centrist Civic Coalition’s reform agenda since it took power in 2023. The vote will almost certainly head to a runoff pitting the preferred candidates of PiS and the Civic Coalition against each other. |
Our Take |
Often, the rise of far-right and illiberal populist parties in Europe is framed as a monolithic story, and the fact that these three elections are all coinciding on one day will likely invite more coverage along those lines. But while... |
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Given how hard the task can be, conflict mediators should take the wins when they can get them. This is something the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump just learned firsthand, as Washington stepped in to help deescalate a burgeoning conflict between India and Pakistan when the two countries appeared on the brink of all-out war. |
Even if the Trump administration only played a supporting role in nudging the two sides toward a ceasefire, those efforts should be applauded. Unfortunately, they also underscore the difficulty that Trump, and mediators in general, have in addressing conflicts, columnist Paul Poast writes. |
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On April 24, Trump signed an executive order that, though lacking in specifics, underscored his administration’s desire to explore and extract critical resources through offshore and deep-sea mining, both by expanding operations in U.S.-controlled waters and creating interstate partnerships to pursue projects in international waters. |
Trump’s executive order on deep-sea mining represents a new but also potentially hazardous frontier in the competition to control critical minerals needed for the green energy transition and next-generation tech. As Martha Molfetas writes, accessing these resources in the depths of international waters will come with environmental costs and uncertainty. |
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The U.S. and Iran met in Oman this past weekend for the fourth round of renewed talks over Tehran’s nuclear program. Both sides agreed to meet again. |
This week, we asked: Will the U.S. and Iran reach a new nuclear agreement within the next 60 days? |
The results? 61% of respondents predicted “No,” compared to 39% of respondents who predicted “Yes.” |
Read all our coverage of Iran here. |
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Armed men in civilian clothing carried out three separate attacks in a 24-hour span on Guyanese troops conducting patrols along the Cuyuni River, near the disputed border with Venezuela. The attacks come at a time when Venezuela has ramped up its claims to Guyana’s Essequibo region, even insinuating in recent years it would take the region by force. |
Although Venezuela’s saber-rattling, which began in earnest in 2023, largely died down last year, tensions have resurfaced intermittently, and incidents like this are a reminder that the rest of Latin America should remain vigilant about the issue. As James Bosworth wrote in December, the region should continue pushing de-escalation and directing strong messages at Caracas underscoring just how bad the consequences of a military offensive would be. |
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Former Gabonese President Ali Bongo, who was ousted in an August 2023 military coup, has flown to Angola with his wife and son, all of whom were detained until recently. The Bongo dynasty had ruled Gabon for 56 years prior to the coup, which was led by Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who also went on win the country’s recent presidential election. |
After taking power in 2023, Oligui framed his leadership as a break from the past and implemented reforms to that effect. But as Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé wrote in March, Oligui is in fact a card-carrying member of the Bongo clan, and as a result, the odds are slim that he will ultimately be the radical change that so many Gabonese yearn for. |
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Yesterday, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump fired nearly 600 employees at Voice of America, a government-funded news organization that delivers reporting to countries with limited press freedom. The move is the latest effort by the White House to dismantle VOA, despite a court ruling last month ordering the administration to maintain the organization’s news programming. As Amanda Coakley wrote last month, Trump’s efforts to shut down VOA marks the end of an era for the U.S. soft power that helped bring the Cold War to a close. |
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The respected U.S. academic Paul Chambers, who was arrested last month in Thailand in response to a complaint of lèse majesté—or insulting the monarchy—remains in the country with his case in legal limbo despite state prosecutors deciding not to press charges two weeks ago. As Joshua Kurlantzick wrote recently, Thailand’s military may have hoped Chambers’ arrest would chill criticism of the army and king, but that kind of harassment is unlikely to quash the broader popular movement seeking greater freedoms in the country. |
More from WPR |
Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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