Soner Cagaptay • 1stVerified • 1stBeyer Family Fellow @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy | Historian | Author | Public Speaker | Turkey | Middle East | Balkans | Cultural GeographyBeyer Family Fellow @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy | Historian | Author | Public Speaker | Turkey | Middle East | Balkans | Cultural Geography5d •
Considering recent successful attempts to disband violent, ethnic nationalist groups (ETA and IRA in Spain and the UK, respectively, and the "real"—i.e., smaller, but more violent and ideological off-shoots of said groups), Turkey faces a challenge vis-a-vis a potential "Real PKK".
Spain and the UK succeeded against ETA and IRA violence, only after convincing their neighbors (France for Spain & Ireland for the UK) to deny these violent groups, and their "real" off-shoots, safe haven. In this regard, Turkey has 100 percent Syrian cooperation to deny the PKK/YPG operational space.
However, Iran is not on-board regarding Turkey's PKK strategy. In fact, statements announcing the PKK's self-abolishment curiously don't mention PJAK, the group's Iranian branch. PJAK could survive, post-PKK abolishment, morphing into a "Real PKK"—with Tehran's support.
Iraq is partly on-board regarding Turkey's PKK strategy. KDP in the Kurdish north backs Ankara's effort to disband the PKK. And while Iraq's current government (sort of) backs Ankara, that could change in November, should a more pro-Iran government rise to power in Baghdad.
While the PKK has disbanded itself, it's uncertain if YBS, the group's off-shoot among Yazidis in Sinjar in northern Iraq, will follow path. This leaves Turkey with two groups that could evolve into "Real PKK": PJAK (in Iran) and YBS (In Iraq, but backed by pro-Iran forces).
If Ankara wants to fully defeat the PKK's potential "real" offshoots, it will need come to an understanding with Iran regarding influence in the Fertile Crescent. And if that fails, Ankara may choose to twist Iran's arm to convince it to deny space to the PKK off-shoots.
Spain and the UK succeeded against ETA and IRA violence, only after convincing their neighbors (France for Spain & Ireland for the UK) to deny these violent groups, and their "real" off-shoots, safe haven. In this regard, Turkey has 100 percent Syrian cooperation to deny the PKK/YPG operational space.
However, Iran is not on-board regarding Turkey's PKK strategy. In fact, statements announcing the PKK's self-abolishment curiously don't mention PJAK, the group's Iranian branch. PJAK could survive, post-PKK abolishment, morphing into a "Real PKK"—with Tehran's support.
Iraq is partly on-board regarding Turkey's PKK strategy. KDP in the Kurdish north backs Ankara's effort to disband the PKK. And while Iraq's current government (sort of) backs Ankara, that could change in November, should a more pro-Iran government rise to power in Baghdad.
While the PKK has disbanded itself, it's uncertain if YBS, the group's off-shoot among Yazidis in Sinjar in northern Iraq, will follow path. This leaves Turkey with two groups that could evolve into "Real PKK": PJAK (in Iran) and YBS (In Iraq, but backed by pro-Iran forces).
If Ankara wants to fully defeat the PKK's potential "real" offshoots, it will need come to an understanding with Iran regarding influence in the Fertile Crescent. And if that fails, Ankara may choose to twist Iran's arm to convince it to deny space to the PKK off-shoots.
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