NATİONAL SECURİTY JOURNAL The Treaty - Russia’s Strategy To Win in Ukraine: Casualties Don’t Matter to Putin - ByBrent M. Eastwood Published1 day ago ( May 20, 2025 )

 NATİONAL SECURİTY JOURNAL

The Treaty

Russia’s Strategy To Win in Ukraine: Casualties Don’t Matter to Putin

Brent M. Eastwood

ByBrent M. Eastwood

Published1 day ago  ( May 20, 2025 )

Putin with a Rifle. Image Credit: Russian State Media.

The Russian Way of War: Sustaining High Casualties –  Absorbing a high rate of casualties is the Russian way of war. And the Ukraine War proves it.

But before we get to the Ukraine conflict, here is some history to consider.

The Ukraine War Meets History

Despite dreadful losses in World War Two, the Russians were able to defeat Nazi Germany. Conflict in Afghanistan and Chechnya was less successful, and the Russian forces sustained many killed and wounded. Still, the government never really blinked, and despite a loss in South Asia, the Russians ended up winning against Chechen rebels. Now they face enormous casualties in the war against Ukraine.

The ability of Vladimir Putin to ignore the death and destruction of his military has astounded military experts and has shocked even the most casual of observers.

Nobody Is Stopping Putin’s War

Putin’s forces have remained strong in the Donbas and have consolidated and protected territorial gains there. Moscow may be able to keep this hard-fought ground if peace is ever achieved.

But despite the combat losses that would horrify liberal democracies, Russia’s authoritarian-style government can carry out a war for lengthy periods. There is no domestic political pressure to keep the country from fighting.

Ordinary Russians may be skeptical of the war’s aims and prosecution, but these doubters would never publicly articulate negative opinions.

Putin is free to do what he wants, and if that means fighting a war to the death, so be it.

The Statistics Are Difficult to Believe

Losses have been incredible, and they are not getting better. In the first four months of combat this year, Putin’s forces have suffered 160,000 casualties.

Now it is summer fighting season, and this period could be the most dangerous time for the dead and wounded in the history of the war. 2025 has been the worst year of casualty rates yet. Last year was difficult too. In 2024, Moscow was forced to deal with the reality of 45,287 deaths.

“So far, we have identified the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” BBC wrote. The news outlet even estimates that total is too low and could be as high as 237,000 people killed. When combined with the number of wounded, there could be as many as a million Russian casualties.

Cold War Tactics Are Still Being Used

Russia has never transformed its offensive war strategy from dysfunctional Soviet-era frontal attacks with mass armor and artillery.

They are stronger on defense and have adapted to loitering drones to punish Ukrainian positions, but operational and tactical breakthroughs from skillfully-led offensives were never in the cards. This has just been a costly war of attrition that has resulted in a stalemate.

Glide Bombs and Motorcycles: An Unlikely Combination

One aspect of the fight in which Putin’s generals have found success is the practice of launching deadly glide bombs from airplanes.

This has been a cheap and lethal tactic that has made Ukraine pay the price. Russia has also tried deploying suicidal troops on motorbikes combined with attack drones to advance past Ukrainian defenses.

There have been some success from these missions, but this is not the kind of massive, armored spearhead that could take Kyiv or other smaller cities beyond the front lines. Russia has advanced only in piecemeal attacks that have not been decisive.

How Ukraine Has Responded

Ukraine has been strong on defense. The defenders use mines to funnel the Russians into kill zones where the Ukrainians have pre-registered artillery targets. First-person view (FPV) drones have been extremely effective.

These flying hand grenades menace tanks and infantry, keeping the Russians from advancing. Plus, a massive attack with mechanized forces is impossible to execute. The massing of armored vehicles is spotted immediately by reconnaissance drones, eliminating any measure of surprise.

While Putin’s defense forces have lost thousands of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, the army can still live to fight on with aerial attacks from glide bombs and drones. The air force is intact primarily since fighter jets and bombers stay out of range of Ukrainian air defenses and fire the glide bombs and missiles from relative safety.

On the naval side, the Black Sea fleet has been rendered ineffective, but Putin still has many more ships and submarines that can be redeployed from other commands if needed. And he retains all of his nuclear weapons.

Summer Fighting Season Will Be Especially Deadly

This summer will surely see costly fighting if no ceasefire can be achieved.

The United States could walk away from the negotiating table, as Putin has been cagey and less inclined to pause the fighting. He believes any ceasefire will just be a period when Ukraine receives more weapons systems and ammunition from the West. The Ukrainians will also use the pause in fighting to improve their defensive positions and redeploy their soldiers to shore up weak points.

Russia wants the Donetsk completely and has been assembling forces to take the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors. The invaders have momentum in these areas, and Putin’s generals tell him this location could be a decisive point in taking more territory. Ukraine is weak here and would need to shore up its defenses or lose more ground.

That will be the future of the fight. Look for Ukrainian weaknesses along the frontline, while the Russians create mass and take territory to push the defenders back slowly. This can happen over the summer as Putin goes through the motions during peace talks.

There will be more Russian losses, which will continue to amaze observers. Putin and his generals are ready to take additional casualties and care little about how high the price is.

Welcome to the Russian way of war.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends . in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.