CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) Daily News Brief - May 12, 2025 - covering the United States’ and China’s move to dramatically cut tariffs, as well as... A ceasefire between India and Pakistan Hamas’s plan to free an Israeli-American hostage The dissolution of Kurdish insurgent group PKK

 

Daily News Brief May 12, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the United States’ and China’s move to dramatically cut tariffs, as well as... A ceasefire between India and Pakistan Hamas’s plan to free an Israeli-American hostage The dissolution of Kurdish insurgent group PKK

Top of the Agenda The United States and China will reduce tariffs on each others’ goods for ninety days while they continue trade talks. The two countries announced the major reprieve in a joint statement following two days of negotiations in Geneva over the weekend. The United States will drop its main tariff level on Chinese imports from 145 percent to 30 percent, and China will reduce its duties on U.S. goods from 125 percent to 10 percent. “Neither side wanted a decoupling,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today.    The details. The new level of 30 percent on Chinese goods reflects a reduction in Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariff to 10 percent plus the continuation of a 20 percent tariff that Washington applied in response to fentanyl-related exports. As part of its concessions, China said it would revoke non-tariff retaliatory measures imposed since April 2. These include export curbs on rare earths.   Looking ahead. The countries also agreed to establish a trade consultation mechanism. Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China and Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will represent the United States. Shipping industry experts predicted a rush to put in orders during the ninety-day pause. Trade between the countries dropped sharply after tit-for-tat duties that began in early April.

“Beijing realized that, if the tariff tension hikes up, American shelves are going to run out of stuff, American factories are going to run out of the intermediary input. And you started to see the pressure bubbling up in the United States as well...The Chinese officials have said there is not going to be a winner from the trade war, and they know that they cannot win from the trade war. Not just because of shrinking exports, but also because of pressure on the stability of the currency [and] domestic stability from unemployment.” —CFR expert Zongyuan Zoe Liu, The President’s Inbox

The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship CFOTO/Future Publishing/Getty Images Recent U.S. administrations have imposed a suite of restrictions and punitive measures aimed at addressing rising economic competition with Beijing, CFR.org editors write in this Backgrounder.

Across the Globe India-Pakistan truce. Top military officials from the countries are meeting today after a truce announced on Saturday mostly held. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington helped mediate the talks that ended four days of fighting; Pakistan also cited support from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom (UK). Both sides declared military victory.   Hamas to free Israeli-American. Hamas agreed to release hostage Edan Alexander as part of a “good faith” gesture in response to mediation efforts by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, Trump wrote yesterday on social media. A senior Hamas official said that the group is ready to make a deal to end the war and exchange prisoners. The Israeli prime minister’s office said the country remains committed to all of its war objectives.   Kurdish insurgent group disbands. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) announced today it will disband and disarm after forty years of insurgency against Turkey, saying it has “completed its historic mission.” The group had announced a unilateral ceasefire against Turkey in March. The conflict has hampered economic development in southeast Turkey for decades. Next steps for disarmament were not immediately clear; the PKK is designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and Western allies.    Zelenskyy to travel for talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would go to Istanbul on Thursday in an effort to begin peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin there. Putin suggested meeting in Turkey after Zelenskyy called for a thirty-day ceasefire last week. The last time the two leaders met in person was in December 2019.   Bangladesh bans political party. The interim government announced a ban on the Awami League Saturday while lawsuits against the party run their course. A UN fact finding committee said in February that members of the party and law enforcement officials killed 1,400 people in demonstrations last year. The party, whose most recent leader fled to India in August after a student-led protest movement, called the interim government and the ban illegitimate on its social media page.   Iran nuclear talks. Three hours of talks in Oman yesterday between U.S. envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were “difficult but useful,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said. Araghchi said Iran was willing to temporarily alter the total amount and the purity of its uranium enrichment to build confidence, but it would not forsake domestic enrichment completely. Both sides agreed to continue talking.   UK to cut legal migration. The UK government announced it will restrict work visas for lower-skilled jobs, toughen requirements for permanent settlement in the country, and end the ability to recruit care workers internationally. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the changes would include an increase in domestic workforce training. They come after the anti-immigration party Reform UK made gains in recent local elections.  Detained Tufts University student released. Turkish graduate student Rümeysa Öztürk was released from Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention on Friday, after a judge said she had raised a “substantial claim” that her constitutional rights were violated. The Trump administration is seeking to deport Öztürk, saying she was potentially undermining U.S. foreign policy. The administration produced no evidence against Öztürk other than an op-ed criticizing Tufts’ response to the Israel-Hamas war, the judge said.

Previewing Trump’s Persian Gulf Visit Leah Millis/Reuters Trump’s choice of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar for his first foreign trip is a signal that the Trump White House regards the Gulf as a critical actor in its approach to foreign policy, CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook writes in this Expert Brief.

What’s Next Today, the Africa CEO Forum begins in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Today, the Philippines holds a midterm election. Tomorrow, the Cannes Film Festival begins. Tomorrow, Trump is due to begin a trip to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

The Stability of Nations and the Next World Order Luc Gnago/Reuters Ranking the stability of nations can be used to better understand the world order that is forming. It’s defined by a robust competition to provide public goods, AlphaGeo’s Parag Khanna said in this CFR meeting.

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