Why can’t we have “peace”?
GZERO Daily
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Dear Onder,
Welcome to Mittwoch, that’s Wednesday in Europe’s largest economy, where there’s big political news …
In today’s edition:
What Trump’s Cabinet picks tell us so far
Can North Korea really help Russia reclaim Kursk?
Germany on the path to early elections
How Americans voted: 2020 vs. 2024
US flights to Haiti banned for a month
Exclusive from the Paris Peace Forum: Why is “peace” elusive?
Enjoy and thanks for reading.
– The Daily crew
What We’re Watching: Russian-North Korean efforts to retake Kursk, Germany’s road to elections, Backlash over state of aid for Gaza, Trump taps Musk for government efficiency role
Can North Koreans help Russia push Ukrainians out of Russia?
North Korea's state-controlled news agency KCNA announced on Tuesday that the country has ratified a strategic partnership agreement that allows Russia to use North Korean troops to help push Ukrainians from Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian, US, NATO, and South Korean officials have warned in recent days that Russia has amassed a force of about 50,000 troops to try to evict Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions – and they say the force includes 10,000-12,000 North Koreans.
The presence of North Korean soldiers could help Russia push forward with its offensive in Ukraine’s East. But beyond the ability of the North Koreans to draw Ukrainian fire away from Russian forces, it’s not clear how effective they will be on the battlefield. None of them has significant combat experience, and the Ukrainians they will be deployed to attack have been fighting in their country’s Donbas region for a decade.
In addition, throughout this war, Russian forces have faced command-and-control issues. It remains to be seen how Russian commanders can effectively coordinate real-time battlefield maneuvers with large numbers of non-Russian-speaking troops.
Germany to hold early elections
Under a plan agreed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the opposition, Europe’s largest economy is now headed toward early elections in February.
The move comes after weeks of fraying ties among the so-called “traffic light” coalition, an unwieldy tie-up of Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (red), the business-friendly Free Democrats (yellow), and the environment-oriented Greens (you guessed it).
The final straw, last week, was a spat over Germany’s budget. Scholz and the Greens wanted to relax Germany’s strict fiscal rules to create room to invest in infrastructure, defense, and Ukraine aid. The Free Democrats rejected that and proposed a more austerity-oriented budget of their own. Scholz, in turn, sacked Free Democrat Finance Minister Christian Lindner, which led to his party leaving the governing coalition altogether.
What happens now: Under the current deal, Scholz will hold a confidence vote in his government in mid-December, which – assuming he loses, as expected – will pave the way for February elections, which the parties want to hold on Feb. 23, 2025.
At the moment, polls show the opposition Christian Democratic Union as the clear frontrunner with 32% support, twice that of Scholz’s Social Democrats. The far-right Alternative for Germany polls second, at 17%.
Gaza aid at lowest point in a year despite US ultimatum to Israel
Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he will nominate former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to serve as US ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is also an evangelical pastor and the first non-Jew to hold the position in 15 years. He has been a stalwart supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself and of its settlements in the West Bank throughout his career.
The announcement comes a month after the US gave Israel a 30-day ultimatum to boost humanitarian aid flows to Gaza or risk American military aid declining, a deadline that the UN says Israel has failed to meet. Instead, Gaza aid is at its lowest level in a year, according to the UN, and famine is imminent. Israel has also largely failed to comply with Washington’s other two demands: resuming access for commercial trucks and ending the isolation of the North.
Israel blames UN aid agencies for failing to distribute the aid, while the UN accuses the Israeli military of not ensuring safe conditions for distribution. The US State Department said that military aid will not be curtailed because Israel has made progress on its demands and is not in violation of US law.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said during a meeting with leaders of Islamic nations on Monday that Israel is carrying out a “collective genocide” in Gaza. Although MBS and many of the leaders present have enabled severe human rights abuses of their own, his statement is likely in anticipation that the US will soon, either as a last-ditch triumph for Joe Biden or an early victory for Donald Trump, try to negotiate a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Statements like these bolster MBS’s credibility with Israel’s enemies in the region, while also gaining leverage that may translate to Israel making – potentially empty – promises to support future Palestinian statehood in exchange for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.
Trump tasks Musk, Ramaswamy to take on government efficiency
Donald Trump on Tuesday tapped Elon Musk, the richest person on the planet, and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to lead an effort to improve government efficiency.
The president-elect said they will lead the "Department of Government Efficiency,” though a new federal agency cannot be created without an act of Congress. It’s unclear precisely how the so-called agency will function, but Trump said it will “provide advice and guidance from outside of Government.”
The move raises immediate questions about conflicts of interests, particularly given the billions Musk’s companies receive in the form of lucrative government contracts. Musk’s companies have also recently been targeted by the federal government in at least 20 separate investigations or lawsuits.
We’ll be watching to see how this efficiency department takes shape, and whether there is any major pushback on Capitol Hill.
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Trump builds a team of hawks
Donald Trump’s second administration is rapidly taking shape. The president-elect has tapped a number of hardliners and loyalists for Cabinet roles and other key positions, offering a partial glimpse of what his biggest priorities will be post-inauguration.
Based on his picks so far, immigration will be at the top of Trump’s agenda as he appears poised to follow through with his campaign promises on this issue — including mass deportations and closing the border. Tom Homan, who served as acting ICE director in Trump’s first administration and oversaw the controversial family separation policy, has been chosen to serve as “border czar.”
Trump says Homan will be “in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.” Homan is an “immigration hawk” who is “very much in line with Trump’s worldview,” says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s US director.
The president-elect is also expected to select Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy, a move that “really elevates immigration as a key policy focus,” says Allen.
Miller, who helped shape Trump’s immigration policies in his first term, is a fervent supporter of mass deportations. “America is for Americans and Americans only,” Miller said at a rally for Trump at Madison Square Garden in late October.
Trump on Tuesday officially announced that he's picked South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who has also echoed his hawkish rhetoric on immigration, to be Homeland Security chief. “Kristi has been very strong on Border Security,” Trump said, adding that she would work closely with Homan to secure the border.
Trump’s foreign policy team is also coming together — and he’s moving to fill it with China hawks. He selected Rep. Mike Waltz, a Green Beret veteran, to be his national security adviser. He’s also reportedly set to pick Republican Sen. Marco Rubio to be secretary of state. And Trump on Tuesday announced that he's chosen John Ratcliffe, a loyalist who served as director of national intelligence in Trump's first administration, to be CIA director. All three are outspoken in their support for the US taking a hardline stance in its approach to China, which falls in line with Trump’s tough talk toward Beijing.
Rubio has expressed support for negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. But he’s also a proponent of maintaining alliances and could serve as a counterweight to isolationist voices in Trump’s circle on some issues.
“Rubio is going to advocate for something a little bit closer to what you would expect traditional Republican orthodoxy on foreign policy to be. He’s certainly a bigger fan or a bigger supporter of NATO than some other people in Trump’s orbit,” says Allen, while cautioning that he will still only be one voice in the room.
Rubio is also known for his hawkishness when it comes to Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela — and could make Latin America a much bigger priority for Trump 2.0. Tapping Rubio “suggests that Trump is going to take a more direct interest in Latin American policy this time around,” says Allen.
The Florida Republican was “basically the Secretary of State for Latin America in Trump's first administration,” says Allen, adding that Rubio’s huge interest in Venezuela will elevate the country as a foreign policy consideration for Trump.
GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to the UN, is “harder to pin down,” says Allen.
“She's been very adroit at elevating herself, but that’s created this sort of inconsistency in the policy she’s advocated for. It’s a little hard to know where she’s going to land,” adds Allen. “I think that ultimately she’s best thought of as someone who’s going to try to implement Trump’s policy, whatever it will be. But I don’t know that she’s going to have that heavy of a hand in actually setting the policy.”
Trump on Tuesday also announced that he's picked Fox News host Pete Hegseth to be defense secretary. Hegseth is an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq but lacks government experience, and this unorthodox choice is already facing major questions.
We’ll be watching to see who Trump taps for other crucial roles, particularly treasury secretary, as the president-elect has made a number of controversial trade proposals — including threats to impose tariffs on allies and adversaries alike.
Why is peace so elusive today?
The 7th annual Paris Peace Forum concluded Tuesday after two days of public and private conversations about the multiple crises and challenges the world is facing, including climate change, AI regulation, and food insecurity. But the “hot crises” of the moment, ongoing wars in several regions, were the focus of the most urgent talks.
Panels included dialogue on possible paths to a two-state solution in the Middle East, featuring Israel’s former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Palestinian Minister of Foreign Affairs Nasser Al-Qidwa, discussions about the ongoing civil war in Sudan, and Europe’s path forward in Ukraine following Donald Trump’s election.
Despite the Forum’s efforts to foster peace, the world is experiencing higher levels of armed conflict than we’ve seen in decades. The International Crisis Group reports that after a long period of relative stability, wars have been on the rise since 2012, and diplomatic solutions have largely failed in most of these crises.
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis has been in Paris covering the Forum and talking to experts and leaders on the ground, including Crisis Group President and CEO Comfort Ero. Tony asked Dr. Ero about the broader geopolitical tensions making peace so elusive right now.
“The problem is that you've got competing interests, competing visions, and it's not quite clear then how you begin to craft a clear path to peace,” Dr. Ero said. “Whether it's in Gaza, Haiti, Ukraine, [or] Sudan. Getting to the peace table is difficult.”
Watch their conversation here.
Graphic Truth
The votes are still being tallied following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, but looking at preliminary voter data gives clues to what happened in the American electorate last week.
The final vote numbers for Democrats are expected to continue to rise, especially since California is still being counted, and pollster Nate Silver projects that Kamala Harris will win around 75.7 million voters and Trump will win 77.9 million. But it is clear that Harris will not match Joe Biden’s Democratic turnout in 2020. A large portion of this can be attributed to Democrats having control over the White House this time around. History shows us that voters turn out at higher numbers when they are voting their opposing party out of office.
This is disheartening for Democrats considering they upped their spending from 2020, shelling out $1.51 billion compared to the GOP’s $1.03 billion. Breaking that down by cost per vote, Democrats spent $7 more than the Republicans did for each vote in 2024, and a vote for Harris cost $9 more than for Biden in 2020.
Exit polls also show that the Democrats lost votes among Black and Latino voters. Trump gained 19 points among Latino men and 8 points among Latino women. Among Black voters, three out of 10 men under age 45 went for Trump, roughly double the share he got in 2020.
Hard Numbers: FAA bans flights to Haiti, Pentagon leaker gets prison time, Archbishop of Canterbury resigns, Car attack kills dozens in China
30: The FAA on Tuesday banned flights from the US to Haiti for 30 days after a Spirit Airlines flight was damaged by gunfire as it attempted to land in Port-au-Prince on Monday. The flight was forced to divert to the Dominican Republic, and one flight attendant reported minor injuries. Haiti has been plagued by instability and gang violence for years. It’s estimated that gangs control 85% of the Haitian capital.
15: A federal judge on Tuesday sentenced Jack Teixeira to 15 years in prison. Teixeira, 22, is a former Massachusetts Air National Guardsman behind a massive leak of classified military documents largely pertaining to the war in Ukraine. He admitted to leaking the documents to online chat rooms and pleaded guilty in March to six counts of violating the Espionage Act.
100: The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, resigned Tuesday in the wake of a report that concluded he didn’t take sufficient steps against a British lawyer, John Smyth, who was described as “arguably the most prolific serial abuser to be associated with the Church of England.” Smyth, who ran Christian camps for boys and died in 2018, is believed to have abused more than 100 boys and young men in Britain, South Africa, and Zimbabwe for nearly half a century.
35: A 62-year-old man drove his car into a crowd of people at a sports center in southern China, killing at least 35 people and injuring dozens more, Chinese police said Tuesday. The incident occurred Monday, but the death toll was not reported by authorities until the next day — and it’s unclear why. The driver, who was apprehended and taken to a hospital, was reportedly upset over the terms of a divorce settlement.
This edition of GZERO Daily was produced by Writers Riley Callanan, John Haltiwanger, Alex Kliment, Willis Sparks, and Managing Editor Tracy Moran.
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