New Focus of Israeli Campaign Israeli air strikes and evacuation orders in the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek have prompted more than twenty thousand residents to flee to the nearby town of Deir al-Ahmar, a local official said yesterday. Israel’s strikes on what it said were Hezbollah targets in Baalbek come as talks about a potential cease-fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continue—and as Iran itself signals a readiness to respond to last Saturday’s Israeli attack. 

    Three Iranian officials including the top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said separately yesterday that Iran will retaliate against Israel’s strikes on its military facilities. It was not immediately clear if Iran would do so before the U.S. election next week; oil prices rose slightly today following the news. (NPR, Al-Arabiya, AFP, FT)

  Analysis  “At times, and especially lately, it can be easy to imagine that Lebanon is forever doomed to be a pawn in the long-running conflict between Israel on the one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other. But such a bleak outcome can still be ameliorated through inclusive diplomacy, a national dialogue, and an international commitment to rebuilding the Lebanese state,” the Carnegie Middle East Center’s Mohanad Hage Ali writes for Foreign Affairs. 

     “The negotiation of a Lebanon cease-fire will raise hopes that Lebanon can at last escape from Hezbollah’s domination. But that will be possible only if Lebanese political ‘leaders’ step forward and lead—step forward to demand that a president be elected, that U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 be enforced (and Hezbollah forces leave southern Lebanon), and that Hezbollah’s domination of the Lebanese state come to an end,” CFR expert Elliott Abrams writes for the Pressure Points blog.

   This Backgrounder details the role of the IRGC in Iran’s government.  Foreign Policy in the 2024 Election: CFR on Campus  Image As part of our Election 2024 initiative exploring the role of the United States in the world, how international affairs issues affect voters, and what is at stake as voters make their choices next week, CFR visited colleges and universities in four battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—to hold public forums with top experts on international issues and how they influence the lives of U.S. citizens. Watch the video

    Pacific Rim  Washington Warns North Korean Troops Are Approaching Ukraine Border As many as eight thousand North Korean troops are in the Russian border region of Kursk, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday. He added that Washington and Seoul agreed that China should “do more” to curb North Korea’s efforts to aid Russia. U.S. officials have assessed that China is uneasy about North Korea’s strengthening security partnership with Russia and State Department officials have raised the issue with Beijing in recent days, the New York Times reported. (Nikkei, NYT)  

   CFR’s Liana Fix and Benjamin Harris discuss how the North Korea-Russia alliance could escalate global conflict in this expert brief.   China/Vietnam: Vietnam publicly called on China to release fishermen and ships that China had reportedly illegally detained in the South China Sea, without specifying the details of their detention. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson urged Vietnam to improve the “education and management” of its fishermen. (Reuters)    South and Central Asia  U.S. Calls Canada’s Allegations Against Indian Home Minister ‘Concerning’ State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said Washington would continue to consult with Canada about its allegations that Indian Home Minister Amit Shah ordered a campaign against Sikh separatists living in Canada. On Wednesday, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan held a call with his Indian counterpart on a range of issues; the same day, Washington sanctioned nineteen Indian firms it said were supplying Russia in its war against Ukraine. (PTI, Indian Express) 

  Pakistan: A push to sell Pakistan’s state-owned airline was underwhelming yesterday, with only one potential buyer making a final bid that was 8.5 times lower than the government’s expected price. Pakistan is carrying out a large-scale privatization drive as it implements an economic reform package with the International Monetary Fund. (Bloomberg, PTI)    Middle East and North Africa  Iraq Elects Parliamentary Speaker After Nearly Yearlong Impasse The parliament chose Sunni lawmaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani as speaker after disputes between political factions had left the position vacant for almost a year. (Reuters)    Sub-Saharan Africa  Botswana’s Ruling Party Loses Presidential Election After Fifty-Eight Years in Power President Mokgweetsi Masisi “respectfully” conceded defeat today before final election results were announced. Preliminary results had his Democratic Party trailing in fourth place and a victory for opposition coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change. Botswana is the world’s second-largest natural diamond producer and a drop in global demand for diamonds has strained its economy. (Bloomberg, AP)  

   CFR Senior Fellow Michelle Gavin looks ahead at what challenges a new presidency in Botswana will face for the Africa in Transition blog. 

    Africa: The mpox situation in Africa “is not yet under control” though a global health emergency was declared in August, an official from the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday. Suspected mpox cases in 2024 number more than forty-eight thousand, a five hundred percent increase from last year. (Reuters)    Europe  Spain Flooding Has Killed 158 People Rescue teams are still searching across Spain in response to flash flooding that began after heavy rains on Monday. Many parts of the country received several months’ worth of rain in less than a day. Human-caused climate change has made such storms more likely, a partial analysis released yesterday by World Weather Attribution found. (NYT, AP)   Moldova: The country’s top court approved the results of a referendum vote in which Moldovans voted to enshrine European Union membership aspirations in their constitution. The court rejected claims from the pro-Russian opposition that the vote was flawed. (Bloomberg) 

   Americas  Mexico Sends Fuel Supplies to Cuba Amid Blackouts Mexico has sent almost half a million barrels of crude oil to Cuba in just a few days’ time amid fuel shortages and blackouts on the island, oil shipment data showed. Venezuela and Russia, who formerly supplied Cuba, have greatly reduced their supplies, a University of Texas at Austin analyst who tracks the shipments told the Associated Press. (AP)   Brazil: Two former policemen were sentenced to almost seventy-nine years and almost sixty years in prison for the 2018 drive-by killing of Rio de Janeiro councilwoman Marielle Franco. Franco was an advocate for racial justice and fought against police violence; her killing sparked mass demonstrations at the time. (AP, The Guardian) 

  U.S. Campaign 2024  Top Cybersecurity Official Warns of Foreign Influence Efforts in Post-Election Period It is “between that period when polls close and when the vote is certified” that foreign adversaries will likely be most active in trying to sow division and reduce confidence in the integrity of the election, Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Jen Easterly told Foreign Policy. One such tactic includes creating fake websites that purport to be news media, her deputy Cait Conley said. Election infrastructure in the United States “has never been more secure,” Easterly said; Conley said “the election community is more prepared than in any prior cycle.” (FP)    In this Expert Brief, CFR’s Kat Duffy and Jacob Ware discuss how the greatest risks to the election come from domestic extremists and declining public trust.  Friday Editor’s Pick  Time magazine follows Colombian President Gustavo Petro on his mission to quit fossil fuels for good—finding that the costs of this have some citizens on edge.  Council on Foreign Relations  58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065  1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006