WPR : How a Rising China Has Remade Global Politics January 13, 2023

 

How a Rising China Has Remade Global Politics

January 13, 2023

As much as any other single development, China’s rise over the past two decades has remade the landscape of global politics. Learn more when you subscribe to World Politics Review (WPR).

As much as any other single development, China’s rise over the past two decades has remade the landscape of global politics. Beginning with its entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001, China rapidly transformed its economy from a low-cost “factory to the world” to a global leader in advanced technologies. Along the way, it has transformed global supply chains, but also international diplomacy, leveraging its success to become the primary trading and development partner for emerging economies across Asia, Africa and Latin America. But Beijing’s emergence as a global power has also created tensions. Early expectations that China’s integration into the global economy would lead to liberalization at home and moderation abroad have proven overly optimistic, especially since President Xi Jinping rose to power in 2012. Instead, Xi has overseen a domestic crackdown on dissent, in order to shore up and expand the Chinese Communist Party’s control over every aspect of Chinese society. Needed economic reforms have been put on the backburner, while unfair trade practices, such as forced technology transfers and other restrictions for foreign corporations operating in China, have resulted in a trade war with the U.S. and increasing criticism from Europe.

Chinese President Xi Jinping leads other top officials pledging their vows to the party during a gala show ahead of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, June 28, 2021 (AP photo by Ng Han Guan).

Meanwhile, China’s “quiet rise” has given way to more vocal expressions of great power aspirations and a more assertive international posture, particularly with regard to China’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Combined with Beijing’s military modernization program, that has put Asia, as well as the United States, on notice that China’s economic power will have geopolitical implications. The COVID-19 pandemic initially opened up opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence, but has since called into question both China’s credibility as a responsible stakeholder and the future of the supply chains that have fueled its economic success story. All of these trends are now likely to gather momentum now that Xi has been reappointed to a third term as Communist Party chairman, breaking the two-term precedent set during China’s reform and opening period. But as he concentrates power into his own hands, Xi also assumes greater responsibility for China’s successes—and its failures. With challenges piling up, there is no guarantee that China’s rise won’t lose steam, due to outside pressure from Beijing’s competition with Washington or mistakes and unforced errors of its own. And the recent protests across China, which led to the abandonment of Xi’s draconian “zero COVID” policies, served as a reminder that despite his and the CCP’s grip on power, they are still ultimately accountable to the Chinese people. WPR has covered China’s rise in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. Can China sustain its economic miracle in the face of demographic and environmental challenges—and competition with the U.S.? Will the recent protests and Xi’s subsequent about-face on his “zero COVID” policies weaken his grip on power? Is China seeking to reshape the rules-based international system to better reflect its interests, or is Beijing’s goal to undermine and replace it? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Latest Coverage China’s Influence Operations Fall Flat in Central and Eastern Europe Over the past decade, China has targeted Central and Eastern Europe with its influence operations, cultivating leaders, building ties with regional media and developing telecom infrastructure. Yet despite these efforts, and as the war in Ukraine rages on, Beijing has seen its soft power and popularity in the region wane. China Under Xi Jinping Many observers in the West assumed that integrating China into the global economy would lead to domestic liberalization and international moderation. Instead, under Xi, China has pocketed the gains of its economic rise, while cracking down on what little domestic dissent had emerged under previous leaders. He’s now been appointed to a third term as party chairman, breaking the two-term precedent set since China’s reform and opening period. But with challenges piling up at home and abroad, he might find the current landscape harder to navigate. How the recent anti-lockdown protests in China were both different than and similar to the protests of 1989 that culminated in Tiananmen Square, in China’s Short-Lived Zero-COVID Protests Could Have a Lasting Impact How the recent protests against zero-COVID measures exposed Beijing’s pandemic messaging as propaganda, in China’s COVID Protests Put the Lie to Xi’s Triumphalism Why Xi’s consolidation of power is a problem for China—and the world, in Xi’s Grip on Power Is Now China’s Biggest Domestic Challenge What the leadership appointments at the CCP’s recent Party Congress say about Xi’s governing priorities, in Loyalty Trumps Competence in Xi’s China U.S.-China Relations As optimism about China’s rise began to fade at the end of the Obama administration, the U.S. foreign policy community quickly embraced a bipartisan consensus on the need to get tough on Beijing. But former President Donald Trump’s trade war, amid calls for a broader “decoupling” of the two countries’ economies, did not deliver decisive results. Since taking office, the Biden administration has tried to maintain pressure on Beijing while opening channels of engagement, but those efforts have failed to meaningfully improve relations. More recently, the Biden team has increased the pressure on Beijing, particularly when it comes to competition over the technologies that will determine global power dynamics in the 21st century. Why the gathering U.S. consensus on China could be creating more problems than it solves, in Washington’s Hawkish China Consensus Is Reaching a Point of No Return What Beijing’s growing challenges at home and abroad mean for how the U.S. should approach competition with China, in Rising or Falling, China Is a Serious but Manageable Competitor Why improving the tone of U.S.-China relations won’t be enough to resolve their differences, in Biden and Xi Will Struggle to Repair U.S.-China Relations What’s driving efforts by both sides to open channels of communication between Washington and Beijing, in Amid Tensions, the U.S. and China Seek to Lower the Temperature

Foreign Policy & the Belt and Road Initiative China has a long history of aid and investment in the developing world. Now its Belt and Road Initiative of global infrastructure investment is making inroads not only in Asia and Africa, but also Europe. But Beijing is increasingly using the leverage its economic partnerships generate to advance its political interests, at times by using boycotts and other coercive tactics to bully governments that cross it. That, combined with Beijing’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, is now creating a backlash that is undermining China’s global image—and influence. Why a recent partnership agreement between China and Saudi Arabia may be more talk than action, in China and Saudi Arabia Are Making a Big Show of Upgrading Relations Why London’s relations with Beijing are unlikely to improve anytime soon, in Sunak Will Have Trouble Improving U.K.-China Ties, Even if He Wanted To Why Europe should be rethinking its approach to China, in China’s Protests Are a Wakeup Call for the EU, Too How China is outpacing Russia in Central Asia, in China Is Taking Advantage of Russia’s Weakness in Central Asia China’s Military Modernization—and Taiwan Once primarily a personnel-heavy and ill-equipped land army, the Chinese military has overhauled itself into a force capable of fighting on land and sea, in the air and space, as well as in the cyber domain. And its cutting-edge equipment is increasingly supplied by a Chinese defense industry that has itself become a global player. That has raised concerns among neighbors and rivals, particularly when it comes to the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan to unify the island with the mainland by force. Why fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are overblown, in China Has Nothing to Gain From Invading Taiwan Why China’s attempts to intimidate Taiwan are backfiring, in China’s Saber-Rattling Won’t Make Taiwan Shift Course How China’s military show of force after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan upped the ante with Taipei—and Washington, in China’s Response to Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Is Rewriting the Playbook How China’s rapid advances in military capabilities are making its neighbors wary, in China’s Military Advances Have Come With Some Political Downsides