NYT - Russia -Ukraine War Briefing , january 13, 2023

 

January 13, 2023 Russia

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

The West is preparing to send modern tanks to Ukraine as the U.S. and its allies take on more risk to defend Ukraine and shift the balance of forces. The I.M.F. says a worldwide recession can be averted if China’s pandemic restrictions continue to be eased and Russia’s war in Ukraine does not worsen. Russia released a U.S. Navy veteran who had been detained since April in Kaliningrad. Get the latest updates here.

A frame from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry showing Russian howitzers in the Donetsk region. Russian Defence Ministry/EPA, via Shutterstock

A small, disputed Russian victory

The Russian Defense Ministry said today that its troops had captured Soledar, a small town in the Donbas, after weeks of fierce fighting. Ukraine rejected the claim and said its soldiers were hanging on.

Capturing Soledar would allow Russian forces to set their sights firmly on Bakhmut, a ruined city a few miles away. Russian troops and the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force, have been battling to encircle Bakhmut for months, highlighting how the war has turned into a difficult slog.

Analysts cautioned that a victory in Soledar would be unlikely to change Russia’s fortunes.

Russia has “overexaggerated the importance of Soledar, which is at best a Russian Pyrrhic tactical victory,” said the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group. It added that the battle would have contributed to “Russian forces’ degraded combat power and cumulative exhaustion.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that Soledar was “of great importance for continuing successful offensive operations” in the Donbas region, and that its troops had “completed” their capture of the town overnight.

“This is not true,” said a spokesman for Ukrainian troops in the east. “The fighting is ongoing.”

Smoke billowing during fighting in Soledar on Wednesday.Libkos/Associated Press

Russian forces in the area far outnumber the Ukrainian troops who remain, according to people on the Ukrainian side familiar with the matter.

A victory in Soledar would be Russia’s first tangible gain in the war since July, when its troops took control of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Donbas.

The claim of victory appeared to exacerbate a disagreement between the Wagner Group and the Russian army. A senior Wagner Group commander, Andrei Troshev, accused the defense ministry of stealing “other people’s achievement” after it failed to mention his fighters in the statement.

“Soledar was taken solely with the efforts of the Wagner Group fighters,” he said. “There is no need to insult the fighters by humiliating their effort.” Analysts say the infighting reveals a struggle for President Vladimir Putin’s favor as the military outlook in Ukraine darkens.

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Cargo trucks waiting to cross from Georgia into Russia on Wednesday. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Supplying Russia via Georgia

The war abruptly cut many of Russia’s trade links to Europe, but the country has found some alternatives. Georgia — a former Soviet republic of 3.6 million that fought its own painful war with Moscow in 2008 — has emerged as a particularly important conduit between Russia and the outside world, my colleague Ivan Nechepurenko reports.

Truck drivers in Georgia are enjoying a surge in business after many European companies shut down trade with Moscow to comply with sanctions or to protest the war. The trucks travel the quickest overland route from Turkey, which has become one of Russia’s main trade links to the West.

During the first six months of 2022, cargo transit between Turkey and Russia tripled in volume and much of it traveled on Georgian roads, according to TBC Capital, Georgia’s leading investment bank.

Truck drivers having lunch while waiting to cross the Georgia-Russia border.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

The lines of trucks waiting to cross the border were more than twice as long in December as they were a year earlier, according to the Russian Federal Customs Service. The traffic is far more than the border checkpoint can handle and the Russian customs service is working to expand the number of processing lanes.

It’s impossible to tell how much of the European cargo crossing Georgia is subject to European Union sanctions. But the country’s emergence as a key link in commerce to Russia highlights a potential loophole in E.U. sanctions policy.

Since May, Russia has received more than $20 billion worth of goods through the so-called parallel imports process — when something is brought to a country without the consent of the company that made it — the head of Russian customs said in an interview with state television. Much of the cargo consists of cars and equipment for factories.

What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

The show must go on at the National Opera and Ballet Theater in Kyiv: “Snow Queen” is taking the stage even though half of the theater’s ballet dancers have fled the country and air-raid sirens interrupt performances. The photographer Lynsey Addario captured these images of the funeral of a Ukrainian commander killed in battle outside of Bakhmut. Nicole Tung took these photographs near the Kreminna eastern front. Ivo Daalder and James Goldgeier write in Foreign Affairs that the likely outcome in Ukraine is a prolonged, grinding war that gradually becomes frozen along a line of control that neither side accepts.

Around the world

Israel’s proposed transfer of technology to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian missiles and drones has been delayed because of the change of government in Israel, Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel said.

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Elina Svitolina, the most successful Ukrainian women’s tennis player in history, is, like many prominent Ukrainians, a crusader, focused on raising money and awareness for her country.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be off on Monday for Martin Luther King’s Birthday. I’ll be back Wednesday. — Carole