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This week's edition brought to you by
Cate Hansberry, Publications Editor
NOVEMBER 19, 2022 | Few issues are more critical to global stability than food security. As Americans prepare to feast next week, it’s worth remembering that 33.8 million people in the United States lived in food-insecure households last year. Globally, as many as 828 million people go to bed hungry every night. According to the World Food Programme, 2022 has been a “year of unprecedented hunger.” The global food security crisis feels overwhelming—but it is solvable, and our experts are on the case. Also on the table this week: a divided Congress, a US-China meet-and-greet, and what’s happening with Russia sanctions.
#1. Food for thought. Last weekend, in tandem with the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, leaders from government, industry, and civil society came together for the Atlantic Council’s first Global Food Security Forum. “We have everything we need in the world to make sure everyone gets fed,” said R&B star cum philanthropist John Legend during his performance at the event. The sentiment echoed the consensus of many of the experts in the room, and our foresight maven Peter Engelke distilled their findings in a post-forum analysis that serves as a tipsheet for G20 leaders on how to tackle the problem. Read more.
#2. When in Bali. Two of those leaders are Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, who met for three hours on Monday in Bali, with both pledging to restart stalled climate talks and rekindle the relationship between the two major powers. By all appearances the chat went well—Biden was quoted as saying there “need not be a new Cold War” after the meeting. But what was left unsaid? Our China watchers weighed in, with Jessica Drun wondering if Biden’s affirmations on Taiwan would “be sufficient in reassuring China” that US policy toward the island hasn’t changed. Read more.
#3. A house divided. Following the midterm elections, Democrats are holding onto the Senate by a thread, while Republicans will hold a narrow House majority. So what does this mean for the latter half of Biden’s term? Experts from across the Atlantic Council say it will be a mixed bag. Dan Negrea, who recently led the US State Department’s Deal Team Initiative, says the Republican-run House may find common ground with Biden on trade policy. Meanwhile Josh Lipsky says a fight is brewing over the debt ceiling. Josh, a former IMF advisor, cautions that Congress may “play chicken” with the debt limit despite the possibility of a global recession. Keep an eye out for a summer 2023 showdown—if the Democrats can’t hike the debt limit during a lame-duck session in the coming weeks. Read more.
#4. Cash dash. The GeoEconomics team’s new Global Sanctions Dashboard walks us through the latest sanctions against Russia and Iran, the implications of US semiconductor export controls against China, and projected sanctions trends in 2023. According to Charles Lichfield and Maia Nikoladze, Russia will continue to be a top target of US sanctions, but there are three factors to watch heading into next year to assess where US economic statecraft is heading—the battlefield in Ukraine, the effectiveness of oil price caps, and the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Read more.
#5. A heating debate. As Europe hunkers down for a cold winter, natural gas production in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq may be heating up. In a new report, Middle East and North Africa markets expert Ahmed Tabaqchali says the region is poised to nearly triple gas production by 2030 and more than sextuple it by 2040. Could this be a solution to the gas shortage? Maybe, says Ahmed. The confluence of Europe’s need to find alternatives to Russian gas and a recent ruling on Kurdistan’s natural resource law by Iraq’s highest court present a promising opportunity to change the future of oil and gas resources in the region—but first there is a long way to go to resolve conflicts among Iraq’s political class. Read more.
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