RAND policy currents : China Likely Won't Attack Taiwan Anytime Soon

 

AND RESEARCH AND COMMENTARY ON THE ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST NOV 23, 2022

Photo by EyePress News/Reuters

China Likely Won't Attack Taiwan Anytime Soon U.S. government and military officials have increasingly cited 2027 as Chinese President Xi Jinping's potential deadline to invade Taiwan. Some have even warned that an attack could happen next year. But according to RAND's Derek Grossman, 2027, let alone 2023, is likely too soon. Why? First, Xi's latest rhetoric on Taiwan has been quite reserved. Second, Beijing may have concerns about its ability to successfully conduct joint operations against Taiwan. Third, key U.S. allies appear poised to assist American military efforts to prevent China from conquering Taiwan. At least for now, China is not signaling a war, Grossman says. And rather than start one, Xi is more likely to dial up the use of coercive measures against Taiwan, including diplomatic, economic, and military pressure coupled with cyber and psychological operations. Read more »