ANALYSIS

Russia Can’t Protect 

Its Allies Anymore

Moscow is overstretched in Ukraine—and Armenia is 

suffering the consequences.

By , a Central Asia fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 27, 2018.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 27, 2018. ALEXANDER NEMENOV / POOL / AFP) (PHOTO CREDIT SHOULD READ ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

A tentative cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan has held for the 

past week, following one of the deadliest-ever outbreaks of fighting 

between the two frequent belligerents on Sept. 12-14. But it is unlikely 

to hold; Azerbaijani forces who marched into Armenia continue to 

occupy part of its territory, in particular heights around the town of 

Jermuk. Rumors swirl of further offensives.

A key destabilizing factor is a power vacuum in the region, which has 

emboldened Azerbaijan to press its advantages. Its military supremacy 

over Armenia was conclusively displayed by their previous conflict, 

the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous ethnic Armenian 

enclave within the de jure borders of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s 2020 offensive—with key support from Turkey and Israel—

was settled only by an uneasy cease-fire mediated by Russia, which has 

a close relationship with Armenia. While the circumstances remain 

disputed, it appears that Russia threatened to intervene more forcefully 

if Baku did not agree. This marked an expansion of the Russian military’s

 presence into the South Caucasus region on a scale unprecedented since

 the Soviet collapse.

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