Putin’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week Looks Even Worse Through a China Lens

 Putin’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week Looks Even Worse Through a China Lens

A series of meetings reveal how Beijing is stealing Russia’s influence even in its own backyard.

By THOMAS CORBETT and PETER W. SINGER

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

Vladimir Putin just had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week. And it wasn’t just about losses in Ukraine or having to announce conscription at home. A series of meetings—and what was said and wasn’t said at them— has revealed just how much Russian influence is weakening even in its once spheres of influence, and how China is taking advantage. 

Start with Sept. 7, when the No. 3 man in China’s Politburo Standing Committee, Li Zhanshu, visited Russian officials on a previously planned tour of the country. Following the meetings, the Russian State Duma reported that Li said that “China understands and supports Russia on issues that represent its vital interests, in particular on the situation in Ukraine.” But Chinese state media told a different story, omitting any mention of Ukraine and declaring that Moscow firmly supports China on the Taiwan question. Much to China’s chagrin, a video soon emerged of Li saying that Beijing understands Russian “measures” taken to safeguard the country's “core interests” from pressure by the U.S. and NATO.

In short, it seems that both sides stated at the meeting that they understood the other’s main areas of contention with the West, but neither were willing to publicly admit their mutual support to the international community.  

Just a week later, it was a different story. China’s leader Xi Jinping met with Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan. As the Russian leader arrived to meet his counterparts, Ukraine was retaking the city of Izyum and gearing up to boot Russian forces from Kharkiv Oblast in a disordered and humiliating retreat. 

At this meeting, the Russian position had shifted. This time, Putin went out of his way to express support for China’s actions in the Taiwan Strait against “provocations by the United States,” while also openly accepting Chinese “concerns” about his own conflict in Ukraine. The Chinese side, noticeably, did not reciprocate. Far from offering public support for Russia’s war, Xi didn’t even use the word “Ukraine” in his remarks.

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It was just one part of a larger series of losses for Putin at the event. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who to this point has been relatively friendly, denounced Russia’s action in unusually direct language. And after years of flexing his power by making leaders await his arrival in public, Putin was twice forced to awkwardly wait around for other regional leaders. 

The visual theatrics underscore how Putin’s failed invasion is reshaping the balance of power. The effects are rippling out beyond the losses inside Ukraine itself and the embarrassing performance of the Russian military. While the Russian economy has avoided complete collapse in the face of sanctions, its exports of refined oil products has fallen 25 percent since February; more than 1,000 businesses have halted their operations in Russia; and imports have been cut in half, including those of semiconductors and other essential components. Russia’s economy is not expected to recover for at least eight years.  

While Beijing publicly expresses its continued friendship with Russia, actions speak even louder. China is taking every opportunity to make Russia more dependent on it, and extracting further concessions from its strategic partner. 

Part of this is a clear move for influence in regions where Russia has long held sway, going back to the Tsarist-era conquests of Central Asia. A key in this is promoting a variety of diplomatic, economic, and security initiatives that now have Beijing, not Moscow, in the power position. By promoting China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (an economic and security initiative centered in Asia), Xi is hoping to expand China’s influence and opportunity in a region where Russia is struggling to maintain its relevance.

On the diplomatic front, Xi was clearly the most important player at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Articles under his name were published in Uzbek and Kazakh newspapers lauding their relationships, while also “upgrading” China’s bilateral relations with Belarus. 

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