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Iran's strategic patience in negotiation with Trump pays off after US midterm election - analysis
Israel must engage more with both Trump and Congressional Democrats, while being ready to act solo against Iran, in order to ensure its survival.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the day he addresses a special session of the Conference on Disarmament at the United Nations, aside of US-Iran talks in Geneva, Switzerland, February 17, 2026.
(photo credit: Pierre Albouy/Reuters)
ByYONAH JEREMY BOB
NOVEMBER 4, 2026 12:29
Updated: NOVEMBER 4, 2026 17:05
There’s no denying it. Israel and the US clobbered Iran in both June 2025 and early 2026, and the Trump administration outplayed Tehran with its counter-blockade in recent months.
Yet following the US midterm election on Tuesday, if the regime wants, it can now simply outlast US President Donald Trump.
In January, the Democrats will be able to pressure Trump with investigations, hold up appointments, and even freeze defense budgets to force him out of the mix with Iran.
This is a battle Trump can postpone but cannot really win. That is because it is clear that both Democrats and Republicans – see the results in Texas, South Carolina, and other states the Democrats almost never win – heavily soured on the war or, to be more precise, its impact on their gas prices.
US President Donald Trump waves as he arrives on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, US, October 25, 2026. (credit: Annabelle Gordon/Reuters)
Iran regime prefers to avoid long-term concessions on nuclear program
This was a coldhearted calculation that the regime made at various points. It could have started rebuilding the country and improving the economy much earlier if it had made concessions on the nuclear program.
Instead, it preferred to hold onto the remnants of its nuclear program and not make any long-term concessions.
To put this ridiculous decision in rational terms: Iran has not been able to enrich uranium since June 2025. It may be a year or more before it can enrich uranium again, even if US pressure is lifted.
What would it have lost if it had conceded to a three-year uranium freeze? Nothing or maybe a few months.
But many Westerners never understood the messianic and fanatical character of the regime. They do not care about their people’s suffering – no matter how low the rial currency dips.
The regime killed more than 10,000 of its own people – according to some, tens of thousands – in January and at other periods in 2026 simply to prevent protests from possibly getting out of hand, which might have later threatened its iron rule.
Their leaders’ patience works in years and decades, not weeks and months. They fought a losing war with Iraq in the 1980s for eight years – until the sides agreed to a ceasefire in which Iraq’s superior firepower did not dictate the terms.
ANYONE WHO advised Trump that a four- or six-week war, or four or six months of a counter-blockade, would for sure crack the regime did not study their history.
So, now what?
Trump could still attack Iran with Israel. This could push back the regime’s nuclear and ballistic-missile programs some more. It could also reduce Iran’s overall military power and further weaken pieces of the regime.
Or Trump could opt for a weak deal with Iran, seeing the writing on the wall, having lost Congress, or get forced into such a deal later.
And even if Trump and Israel attack Iran in the coming days or weeks, the regime will not be toppled in that time period, and it can still resist any deal it does not want to agree to.
What are Israel's interests?
So, what are Israel’s interests?
First, Israel must realize that whether or not there is a third round of war with Iran, Washington and Jerusalem are about to diverge on the Islamic Republic.
Israel should act to get the best deal possible on the nuclear issue – which Trump cares about, and the Democrats also will not want to look overly weak – as opposed to ballistic missiles, which even Trump cares less about.
The Jewish state should make clear what its redlines are to both Trump and the incoming ruling Democrats, so that if Iran breaks those redlines in the future – on the nuclear or ballistic-missile issues – there will be little surprise, and the damage to US relations will be mitigated.
Israel could even cut a secret deal with Trump and congressional Democrats about giving them a period of weeks or months to cut a deal with Iran in two years or four years, before it decides to attack, so that opposition to an attack, if it becomes necessary, will be reduced.
Most importantly, Israel must both simultaneously carry out far more dialogue and coordination with the US and European allies regarding Iran than it has done in recent years. It also must remember that if “judgment day” comes, the Jewish state must always be ready to act alone to ensure its survival.
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