The ECONOMİST Graphic detail | Feeling blue - The Democrats’ extraordinary triumph, explained - Six charts show how they came out on top - Nov 4th 2026
Elections to House of Representatives, vote-share margin, % points
Democratic win
Republican win
In today’s polarised America, it would seem impossible to build a sizeable coalition of voters who agree on anything. But President Donald Trump achieved something remarkable in America’s midterm elections: he united much of the country in rebuking his presidency. On November 3rd the Democratic Party won the largest popular-vote victory for the House of Representatives since 1976, and took control of the Senate as well as dozens of statewide offices. Where did it all go so wrong for the Republicans?
Presidential election 2024 v House election 2026, vote share
Trump approval
The chart above shows where voters of 2024 ended up in 2026, according to a large poll published by the Civic Health and Elections Project (CHEP). It illustrates how Democrats won over new voters, who did not turn out in 2024, as well as a chunk of Mr Trump’s 2024 coalition. According to our polling with YouGov, Mr Trump has a -27 approval rating nationwide. In the CHEP data, 62% of respondents said they disapproved of the president. Of those who voted in 2024 or 2026, three-quarters backed Democrats this time.
Change in vote margin from 2024
US House elections 2026, by district
2026 winnerDemocratRepublicanSeat flip
The epicentre of the rout was in the Republicans’ own backyard—the South. In Texas, once the jewel in their crown, Democrats won elections to both the Senate and the governors’ office. Voters in Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932. In South Carolina, Mr Trump’s hand-picked nominee was defeated by a doctor who has never before held elected office. Democrats won by landslide margins in Senate elections in Georgia and North Carolina, too.
Turnout among black voters
US House elections turnout, by county
Southern states*
Other states
The swing was in part a result of turnout among black voters. Georgia elected a Democratic governor for the first time since 1998. Republicans may have been burned by the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v Callais ruling, which weakened voting-rights protections for African-American voters: in states in the deep South, turnout held up much better in black-majority counties than in white-majority ones; elsewhere, there was no such disparity.
Another remarkable swing came from Hispanic voters, whom Democratic strategists feared they had lost for good after the 2024 result. Along the southern border of Texas, James Talarico managed to win back counties that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but supported Mr Trump in 2024. In Florida, Democrats’ biggest gains were in Miami-Dade and Osceola—two majority-Hispanic counties that helped push the state to the right between 2012 and 2024. And in rural, majority-Hispanic Seward County, Kansas, Adam Hamilton improved on Kamala Harris’s margins by an eye-popping 52 percentage points.
Swing among Hispanic voters
US House elections 2026, by county
This may be explained in part by the Trump administration’s heavy-handed approach to immigration. Many voters who once identified with Mr Trump now see his enforcement regime as cruel and discriminatory. In counties where naturalised citizens make up a greater share of the electorate, the swing was even larger than you would expect from the Hispanic share of the electorate alone.
Demographic breakdown
Change in House vote margin 2024-26, % points
20242026
US overall
You can explore the swings among specific demographic groups in our charts above. Young voters under 30, for example, saw a 21-percentage-point move towards the Democrats. Among young men aged 18-24—a group that had swung towards Mr Trump in 2024—the shift to the left was 32 points. Democrats also managed to narrow the gap between America’s most- and least-educated voters. The party posted big gains in counties where the highest qualification of a large share of the electorate is below ninth-grade level. In the CHEP data, respondents without a college degree swung towards Democrats by 13 points.
The Democrats’ victory this year was of a magnitude that appears out of place in the 21st century. For those not yet tired of wave metaphors, may we suggest “Blunami” or “Demluge”. ■
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