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Good morning, world. There’s a reason Donald Trump often references the January operation that captured Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, when making public statements about the war in Iran. He considers the midnight raid that toppled Maduro a success — or as he put it, “the perfect scenario.” More than three months later, it’s clear that Iran is very far from a perfect scenario. (More on this below.) But is the U.S. intervention in Venezuela as much of a success as Trump thinks it is? Today my colleague Anatoly Kurmanaev writes about how there have been some wins, but the big prize — oil contracts for U.S. companies — has not yet materialized. Also:
Venezuela was Trump’s model for Iran. So how’s Venezuela doing now?By Anatoly Kurmanaev In comparison with Iran, the Trump administration’s January operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro does look — from a U.S. perspective, at least — like a success. Instability was a big concern before the attack. Would toppling an entrenched autocrat plunge into chaos a country bristling with guns? Three months in, the answer is no. There has been no notable violence since the operation, and Maduro’s successor, Delcy Rodríguez, has secured a tight grip on the government and the armed forces. Nor has it led to America getting bogged down in a protracted ground occupation in the region. Most of the U.S. military forces that participated in ousting Maduro have since gone elsewhere. Venezuela has not received any U.S. government loans or significant aid so far. The U.S. appears to have a pliable partner in Rodríguez, and a new country firmly within its sphere of influence. Setting aside the multiple legal and ethical concerns raised by invading and capturing another country’s president, some of the fears about what could happen in Venezuela haven’t been realized, and there have even been some small wins. All this comes with a significant asterisk, however. It’s still early. But one big prize for the Trump administration — U.S. companies investing directly in Venezuela to develop its oil resources — remains elusive. Out of the shadow economy Venezuela’s transformation into a U.S. protectorate has been swift and dramatic. Rodríguez has been fundamental to that transformation, changing laws at America’s behest and rolling out the red carpet for U.S. officials and investors. Some of this has upsides for Venezuela, too. The country’s immense natural-resource wealth is now out of the shadow economy. U.S. refiners now buy more Venezuelan oil. America now buys at least some Venezuelan gold. The Trump administration has helped broker oil and mineral deals between the Venezuelan government and Western commodity traders. These changes have significantly increased the Venezuelan government’s revenue. It now sells resources at global prices, instead of through sketchy schemes filled with intermediaries. Some of that revenue is being used to buy American products under the trade scheme brokered by the U.S. government.
Maduro’s downfall has marginalized U.S. adversaries in Venezuela. Chinese, Iranian and Russian contractors are packing up. The flow of free oil to Cuba has stopped. Russian and Chinese state oil firms nominally continue pumping oil in Venezuela, but in practice the Venezuelan government now runs those fields. Venezuela itself has seen a limited, but noticeable, political thaw. Several hundred political prisoners have been freed, some opposition politicians have emerged from hiding and there have been some protests. But the administration has repeatedly framed Venezuela as a mission to secure the country’s oil for the United States. And by that metric, it hasn’t been a clean win yet. The Maduro counterfactual Some of the new laws that Rodríguez passed offer attractive investment terms to foreign investors. But U.S. firms have yet to take the bait. Venezuela has burned investors before, and for all the lavish praise Trump has bestowed upon Rodríguez, he has kept the country under comprehensive sanctions. A plethora of waivers issued by his administration to allow companies to do business in Venezuela has not convinced corporations to stake serious money on his vision for the country. Trump has repeatedly said that the U.S. would get Venezuelan oil. But the most obvious early winners of the changes for now have been international commodities firms such as Vitol and Trafigura, which are headquartered in tax havens and have been buying Venezuelan oil and reselling it to refiners. The largest buyer of Venezuelan oil last month was India, not the U.S., according to data from shipping analytics firm Kpler. As for the Venezuelans themselves, many welcomed Maduro’s ouster and are optimistic about the economic opportunities offered by the renewed alliance with the U.S. But so far, few of the dollars made from the U.S.-brokered sales of oil and minerals have trickled into the real economy. It has only been a few months, and things will likely keep evolving. But it’s also worth bearing in mind that the operation that set off these changes — as smoothly as it may have gone — was still an invasion of a sovereign state. Experts consider it a violation of international law. In private, Venezuelan government officials point out that the changes that have taken place since Maduro’s downfall could have easily occurred with him in power. The autocrat repeatedly offered U.S. companies open access to the country’s natural resources and had agreed to kick out Chinese, Russian and Iranian competitors. Had he stayed, the moneymaking opportunities might well have been the same. But there wouldn’t have been the same brazen display of American power.
The U.S. blockade of the Strait of HormuzThe U.S. military has started its blockade of Iran’s ports, which was announced by Trump after peace talks broke down over the weekend. Iran has promised to retaliate: A spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards threatened to “introduce new methods of warfare.” At least one vessel — a tanker linked to Iran — appeared to defy the blockade yesterday. Experts said they doubted that the blockade would succeed. But the move sets up the next test in the war, my colleague David Sanger writes: Which side can endure more economic pain? On the negotiation front, Iran said yesterday that it would suspend uranium enrichment for up to five years — an offer the Trump administration rejected, insisting on 20 years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. That the two sides are now arguing over the time period for suspending nuclear activity suggests that there may be a path to a deal. Officials said they were discussing a second round of face-to-face talks. Follow our live updates. Top of The World: The most clicked link in your newsletter yesterday was about how a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would work.
The pope clapped back at TrumpPope Leo XIV said yesterday that he was not afraid of the Trump administration, hours after the president attacked him on social media for “catering to the Radical Left” and being “WEAK on Crime.” Tensions between the two men have risen in recent weeks after the pope criticized the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Trump’s attack — along with an image depicting himself as Jesus that he posted on his social media account — drew criticism from Christians, including some of his own supporters. The image was later deleted. Trump said he thought it showed him not as Jesus, but as a doctor. African tour: Pope Leo’s visit to Algeria has been billed as a homecoming for the first pope from the Order of St. Augustine to the place where Augustine himself preached the Gospel.
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Jailed in Vietnam for love songs, but still singingNguyen Van Loc sings the romantic music that defined Hanoi before Vietnam split in 1954: slow-tempo poetry set to melodies adapted from the West. During the Vietnam War, the Communist authorities in the North tried to stamp out the genre and jailed people for performing such songs. Loc was arrested in the late 1960s and spent nearly a decade in prison. At labor camps deep in the jungle, he sang to stay sane. Today, at 81, he is keeping the tradition alive in a much-changed Hanoi. Have a listen.
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This simple adaptation of kua kling, a Southern Thai dry red curry, owes much of its flavor to red curry paste, turmeric and fresh chile. Feel free to use ground pork, sliced beef, chicken or mushrooms.
Where are these mountains?
Here are today’s Spelling Bee, Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here. That’s it for today. See you tomorrow! — Katrin We welcome your feedback. Send us your suggestions at theworld@nytimes.com.
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