Key Takeaways - US-Iran Talks: The United States and Iran will hold a new round of talks sometime early the week of February 8. Neither the United States nor Iran has changed their negotiating position, which makes a diplomatic breakthrough unlikely if their respective positions do not change. Recent statements by Iranian officials indicate that Iran is unlikely to compromise on limits to its ballistic missile program, support for its proxies and partners in the region, and enrichment levels.
- Iranian Digital Repression: The Iranian regime is reportedly continuing to develop plans to restrict international internet access to only trusted regime supporters, which indicates that the regime continues to fear the spontaneous outbreak of new protests. A US media outlet reported on February 6 that the regime was planning since at least August 2025 to overhaul Iran’s digital ecosystem by blocking foreign platforms, banning circumvention tools, and enforcing reliance on state-approved technology "at every level.” These plans suggest that the regime believes that the protests could reemerge and therefore must continue its efforts to securitize Iran’s digital ecosystem.
- US Transfer of ISIS Detainees: Iraq has received 2,250 Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) detainees from Syria since January 21 as part of US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) operation to transfer detainees from Syrian prisons to Iraqi custody. US forces began to transfer ISIS detainees to Iraq on January 21 after several uncoordinated handovers of ISIS detention centers to the Syrian government by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) resulted in the escape of detainees.
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The United States and Iran will hold a new round of talks sometime early in the week of February 8. Neither the United States nor Iran has changed their negotiating position, which makes a diplomatic breakthrough unlikely if their respective positions do not change. Iran and the United States held talks in Muscat, Oman, on February 6 to establish a framework for future negotiations. US President Donald Trump stated on February 7 that US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held “very good talks” and that they will meet again “early next week.” Israeli media, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that the United States told Iran that it expects Iran to make a “tangible and significant concession” regarding its nuclear program in the next round of talks. Trump told reporters that the ”consequences are very steep” if Iran does not make a deal. Trump signed an executive order on February 6 that imposes a conditional 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran. Recent statements by Iranian officials indicate that Iran is unlikely to compromise on limits to its ballistic missile program, support for its proxies and partners in the region, and enrichment levels. Araghchi stated to Al Jazeera on February 7 that Iran will keep its enriched uranium inside the country and set enrichment levels based on national needs. Araghchi also dismissed discussing issues outside of the nuclear program with the United States and reiterated threats to US bases in the region if the United States attacks Iran.
The Iranian regime is reportedly continuing to develop plans to restrict international internet access to only trusted regime supporters, which indicates that the regime continues to fear the spontaneous outbreak of new protests. A US media outlet reported on February 6 that the regime was planning since at least August 2025 to overhaul Iran’s digital ecosystem by blocking foreign platforms, banning circumvention tools, and enforcing reliance on state-approved technology "at every level.” US-sanctioned head of the Supreme Cyberspace Council Mohammad Amin Aghamiri reportedly received and approved this plan in August 2025. The United States sanctioned Aghamiri in 2023 for his role in blocking news and communication platforms and harassing journalists and dissidents as head of the Supreme Cyberspace Council. The outlet obtained the documents through a source in the Iranian technology community, who received the original copies from a government employee inside Iran. These claims are consistent with a January 15 report from internet monitor FilterWatch, which reported that the Iranian regime is planning to provide international internet access only to individuals with “security clearance” and that “users’ access to international internet will never return to its previous form.” These plans suggest that the regime believes that the protests could reemerge and therefore must continue its efforts to securitize Iran’s digital ecosystem. The regime’s fears are presumably enhanced in the short term, given the continued frustration and anger among Iranians in the aftermath of the deadliest crackdown in the history of the Islamic Republic. |
The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants. |
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