Hello from London,
Here’s a thought experiment to worry elected politicians. What if the possibility of sustained popularity is now dead and buried?
Think back to a time before the financial crisis, austerity and the pandemic. Before there was a need to spend more on defence as well as on welfare, when the cost of holding large public debt was not quite so high. Back then, say 20 years ago, it was typical for a large chunk of those who voted for a victorious party to remain patient after an election. Today, not at all.
Take a tour of political leaders. Donald Trump’s popularity, at minus 14 points according to our tracker, is dire in comparison with previous presidents—much worse than Joe Biden’s was at the same moment in his term of office. Yet Democrats can’t cheer the fact that American voters dislike their current chief: for they hate his opponents even more. Even Democrats heartily dislike the Democrats. (Read our cover story on why America lacks any effective opposition.)
Or look across to my country. Little more than a year since Britain got a new government, Sir Keir Starmer is already mired in political crisis. One typical poll in August suggested only 24% of Britons approved of him, whereas 68% disapproved. I suspect his rating is even worse today. He is already at least as disliked as his predecessors, often more so. (Follow his fate with our Starmer tracker.)
In France, watch as the prime minister of just nine months, Francois Bayrou, is almost certainly forced from office on Monday, after losing a confidence vote in the National Assembly. He can’t persuade politicians to pass a budget that involves public-spending cuts. Meanwhile polls show the late-term president, Emmanuel Macron, has never been less liked. Not that novelty provides any defence against the haters. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently marked his 100th day in office. Polls show him to be far less popular, at this early stage, than were any of his recent predecessors. Germany’s dismally low growth is largely to blame. And over in Japan, Ishiba Shigeru was prime minister for less than a year before falling on his sword on Sunday.
Politicians can be bad in their own particular ways (hello Mr Trump). But there are structural problems that also cause voter misery, which politicians, despite their promises, can’t fix quickly. Here’s one reason for discord that I think is often neglected: democracies have steadily ageing populations and, frankly, older voters are often more cantankerous than the young (I’m bracing for your angry emails). Those who are most hostile to immigration, or who worry the most about crime (even when levels are historically low) and who flock to the Reform party in Britain, and to Mr Trump in America, tend to be older.
Then there are permanently high living costs—in particular housing—that squeeze the young, not to mention nagging fears over climate change (or over the cost of tackling it), the frustrations of woke culture, and concern over the disruptive effects of AI. Perhaps worst of all, voters are increasingly informed by the quarter-truths they learn on strident social media. Given all of this, I can’t imagine any politician being popular for long at all. And if political systems produce only unloved leaders, then they themselves may grow unstable. Here’s my less-than-cheery prediction: democracies are going to have to learn to live with long-term malaise.
Last week I asked whether you’d want to attend Xi Jinping’s party, and by extension his parade. As ever, there is too little space to quote all of your thoughtful responses. Susan Lynn in Denver argues that Mr Xi may be more popular among a group of 20 or so autocrats (mostly) who responded to his call, but that doesn’t confirm his wider clout. She would have attended the party, but with trepidation: “From a psychoanalytic point of view it would be mesmerising…like watching a bunch of spiders.” Ana Moreira in Lisbon bluntly sees China as successful but only because of divisions and the “weaknesses of the Western world”. Lampis Pergantis in Greece argues that Mr Xi certainly looks more powerful than ever, but also points to signs of growing fragility. “China’s economy faces slowing growth, high debt, demographic decline, and rising youth unemployment” as well as greater efforts by Western powers to build military pacts and limit the flow of tech there.
For next week, I’d like to know if you agree with my thought experiment suggesting it is now structurally impossible for politicians to remain popular. Is the fact that electorates are ageing partly to blame? Or are the young equally cantankerous as the old? Write to me at economisttoday@economist.com. |
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