Middle East Forum Dispatch - By Ahnaf Kakam - December 31, 2024 - Erdogan's Provocations and Syria's Sectarian Struggles

 

View on web|Read what you missed MEF Dispatch: Erdoğan’s Provocations and Syria’s Sectarian Struggles By Ahnaf Kalam ● Dec 31, 2024 Smart Brevity® count: 5 mins...1277 words In the final edition of the Dispatch for 2024, we discuss our recent podcast with Kenneth Abramowitz who contrasts U.S. approaches to Islamism across administrations, revealing how philosophies of confrontation versus co-option shape policy. Next, we delve into Qatar’s ambitious expansion in the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting its strategic implications for regional power dynamics and stability. We then analyze the Sunni-Alawite tensions in post-Assad Syria, where sectarian divides threaten fragile peace efforts. Finally, MEF writing fellow Abdullah Bozkurt exposes a Turkish human smuggling network tied to President Erdoğan’s party, raising questions about corruption, accountability, and international repercussions. Please Support MEF As 2024 dawns, the Middle East stands at a crossroads. Hamas's October 7 massacre, Iran's expanding nuclear program, and the Houthis' attacks on global shipping lanes have created an unprecedented crisis - and an unprecedented opportunity for change. There's still time to join MEF’s mission with a year-end gift. Donate by December 31 for your 2024 tax deduction: www.meforum.org/2024 To those who've already stood with us this year - thank you. To others: this is your moment to be part of history. Join us in advancing American interests and Western values when they're needed most. ICYMI: “Islamism and the Middle East: Trump 45 vs. Biden” with Kenneth Abramowitz Contrasting approaches of recent U.S. administrations toward Islamism and the Middle East (think Iran and Hamas) express more than divides in policy; they reveal contrasting mentalities. These might be summarized as confrontation vs. cooption. What shapes opposing philosophical approaches? What are their practical implications? Are there differences over time? Kenneth Abramowitz is the founder and president of Save the West and the author of "The Multifront War: Defending America From Political Islam, China, Russia, Pandemics, and Racial Strife" (Dialog Press, 2022). He serves on the boards of the Israel Independence Fund, American Friends of Likud, and Israel Center for Social and Economic Policy (ICSEP). Mr. Abramowitz holds a B.A. in chemistry from Columbia University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School. To watch the full podcast episode, click here. What Is Qatar Doing in the Eastern Mediterranean? By: Michael Rubin Qatar is expanding its gas investments in the Eastern Mediterranean, shifting from its usual strategy. Why it matters: This move places Qatar in a geopolitically sensitive region, potentially impacting regional stability. By inserting ships and equipment under the guise of gas development, Qatar increases its influence and presence. Strategic Interests: Qatar's ventures are not solely driven by the need for gas supply but by broader geostrategic goals. Collaborations with major oil companies help it gain leverage in international politics. Regional Dynamics: Qatar's actions may affect regional powers like Israel and Greece, aligning with Turkey's regional ambitions. This could lead to increased tensions and complicate security dynamics in the area. To read the full article, click here. Sunni-Alawite Tensions in Syria: Interview By: Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi The fall of Assad's regime hasn't erased Sunni-Alawite tensions in Syria, despite some analysts suggesting otherwise. Why it matters: Sect-coded animosity persists, potentially threatening Syria's fragile transition. Sectarian rhetoric and past war crimes continue to fuel distrust and conflict among communities. Voices of Concern: Alawite communities express fears over Sunni insurgent actions, as highlighted by recent unrest. Incidents like shrine burnings and targeted killings underscore the deep-seated tensions. International Implications: The global community's approach to Syria's governance could be critical. Experimenting with extremist groups in leadership roles risks further destabilization. These tensions and international experiments could shape Syria's future, demanding careful navigation to avoid further conflict. To read the full article, click here. Erdogan Gov’t Whitewashed Human Smuggling Network Sending Turks to Germany By: Abdullah Bozkurt A sophisticated human smuggling network linked to Turkish President Erdogan's party was exposed, yet justice was evaded. Why it matters: The acquittal of all involved undermines the rule of law and highlights potential complicity at high government levels. This scandal raises questions about Turkey's commitment to tackling human smuggling and corruption. Scandal Details: The network facilitated illegal migration under the guise of official trips to Germany, using special passports. Bribes allegedly ranged from 4,500 to 7,000 euros per migrant. International Repercussions: Germany is investigating the smuggling network, indicating wider implications. The EU's concerns about Turkey's role in migrant smuggling are likely to intensify. This situation underscores the challenges of addressing human smuggling and corruption within Turkey, while straining relations with European partners. To read the full article, click here. WATCH: Thanos Davelis on Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean: The New Frontier By: Marilyn Stern The Eastern Mediterranean is rapidly becoming a hub for energy, economic, and diplomatic initiatives due to significant natural gas reserves. Why it matters: This region's transformation has fostered new alliances, impacting global energy dynamics. It reduces dependency on Russian energy, crucial amid geopolitical tensions. Regional Cooperation: Greece, Israel, and Cyprus lead a trilateral partnership, expanding to include Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) institutionalizes these collaborations, setting energy diplomacy standards. Challenges and Opportunities: Turkey's assertive policies pose challenges, while China's growing influence raises concerns. The region's partnerships aim to marginalize these powers, promoting stability and cooperation. This strategic shift highlights the Eastern Mediterranean's potential to redefine energy routes and geopolitical alliances, with Greece playing a central role in linking the region to Europe. To watch the full podcast episode, click here. Assad’s Army: What Went Wrong By: Amatzia Baram The sudden fall of Assad's regime in Syria was marked by sectarian divides, corruption, and failed alliances. Why it matters: Assad's army's disintegration exposes the vulnerabilities in sectarian-based military command. The Sunni majority's lack of support for the Alawite-led regime was pivotal in the regime's downfall. Command Failures: Assad's army was undermined by an Alawite-dominated leadership and poor training. This sectarian imbalance led to a disconnection between commanders and Sunni soldiers. Alliances Abandoned: Key allies like Russia and Iran failed to provide emergency support. This lack of backing contributed significantly to the regime's collapse. This event highlights the critical role of cohesive leadership and strong alliances in maintaining military strength and stability in politically volatile regions. To read the full article, click here. Washington Must Address Turks’ Ignorance and Detachment from Reality By: Michael Rubin The U.S. must confront Turkey's growing detachment from reality under Erdoğan's influence, as his narratives foster anti-American sentiments. Why it matters: Turkey's misinformation landscape threatens regional stability and U.S. national security. Erdoğan's unchecked narratives fuel terror sympathies and undermine democratic values. Strategic Oversight: U.S. informational efforts in Turkey are inadequate, risking further alienation. Voice of America and RFE/RL need to amplify broadcasts targeting Turkish audiences. Path Forward: Enhanced media outreach can counter Erdoğan’s ideology and inform Turkish citizens. Engaging exiled journalists and dissidents could provide alternative perspectives and promote critical discourse. This shift in strategy is vital to addressing misinformation and fostering a more informed public in Turkey. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Is Antisemitic” By: Philip Carl Salzman DEI policies in North America label Jews as oppressors and Islamist terrorists as marginalized victims. “Turkish Firm Operating Mogadishu Airport Shielded by President Erdoğan amid Controversial Practices” By: Abdullah Bozkurt Turkish firm Favori LLC’s controversial reign over the Mogadishu airport has brought forth allegations of corruption, labor abuse, and political favoritism. As we step into 2025, the challenges and opportunities in the Middle East As we begin 2025, the challenges and opportunities in the Middle East demand focus and action. From addressing Turkey’s growing influence and sectarian divides in Syria to exploring Qatar’s ambitions and their implications for regional stability, this edition of the MEF Dispatch underscores the complexities of the year ahead. Your continued support empowers us to deliver analyses and take action. Together, we can advocate for policies that promote stability and safeguard Western values across multiple fronts. Thank you for standing with us. Sincerely, Ahnaf Kalam Digital Media Specialist Middle East Forum