BROOKINGS CHİNA CENTER - - January 06, 2025 - For China, 2025 will be about how Xi tackles the economy and more ...

 

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January 6, 2025

Abetting competition, restraining Beijing: Recommendations for diplomacy toward China   Jonathan Czin provides recommendations on how to further advance the United States' interests in the competition with China based on the Biden administration's China strategy and Beijing's decision-making.   Read more    Explore additional work from "The future of U.S.-China policy" series below.

For China, 2025 will be about how Xi tackles the economy   President Xi Jinping will face significant difficulties and hard choices in 2025. Mary Gallagher highlights China's challenges this year, including economic stagnation from low consumer demand and deflation, delays in structural reform, and an increasingly volatile international environment with the return of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.   Read in World Politics Review

Peace through strength is Taiwan's ticket to stronger relations with the US   President-elect Trump wants to project strength and maintain unpredictability in America's foreign policy. To strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations under Trump, Ryan Hass recommends that Taiwan position itself as a key partner of America's "peace through strength" strategy.   Read in Taipei Times

China's view of Lai Ching-te and the pending crisis in the Taiwan Strait   Beijing views Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as beyond redemption and fixates only on what it sees as his unacceptable and provocative statements. Yun Sun argues that China's ramping up of military responses to perceived Taiwanese "transgressions" aims to build a "new normal" by raising the costs of activities that it deems unacceptable.   Read in China Leadership Monitor

US-China policy recommendations for the incoming administration   The Brookings China Center is excited to launch a new series: "The future of U.S.-China policy: Recommendations for the incoming administration." As part of the series: Ryan Hass examines where potential adjustments could be made to Washington's Taiwan strategy to strengthen America's capacity to protect its foremost interest of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Richard Bush underlines how the U.S. can bolster Taiwan's self-help tools, such as economic resilience, democratic institutions, and strategic alliances, to counter Beijing's coercion. Patricia Kim, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, and Tara Varma highlight the challenge of a deepening Sino-Russian relationship to U.S. interests and provide recommendations for America's response. Joshua P. Meltzer and Margaret Pearson discuss how the next administration should address Chinese overcapacity through a principled risk-based approach. Melanie Sisson and Dan Patt analyze the loss of U.S. regional military primacy in East Asia and provide recommendations within an expeditionary power projection model to promote U.S. interests. Drew Thompson explains Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's whole-of-society resilience campaign and offers recommendations for U.S.-Taiwan cooperation that could complement the campaign. Yun Sun explores China's strategic interests in the Middle East and its implications for the Trump administration's Middle East policy.

Upcoming events

How will AI impact security relations between the United States and China? U.S. and Chinese perspectives. On Friday, January 10, the Brookings China Center and Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy will co-host a panel discussion with U.S. and Chinese experts on how AI will influence national security issues facing both countries. Colin Kahl and Andrew Forrest will provide welcoming remarks, followed by a discussion moderated by Ryan Hass with experts Ting Dong, Chuanying Lu, Xiao Qian, Chris Meserole, and Jacquelyn Schneider.   U.S.-China climate relations: Innovation, competition, and global implications. On Monday, January 13, the Brookings China Center will host a high-level discussion on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations on climate change and green technology. The event will feature a panel moderated by Ryan Hass with scholars Jeffrey Ball, R. David Edelman, and Samantha Gross.

Past events

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn) and Ryan Hass.

Where are U.S.-China relations headed? On December 6, the Brookings China Center and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) presented findings from the first phase of their project on "Advancing Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition." U.S. Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn) participated in a keynote fireside chat moderated by Ryan Hass. The fireside chat was followed by a panel moderated by CSIS's Lily McElwee on the precedents of major power coordination with experts Nellie Bristol, Caroline Smith DeWaal, and Caitlin Welsh. This event was covered by the South China Morning Post.   Bridges or battlegrounds? American cities in the U.S.-China relationship. On December 12, the Brookings China Center partnered with the Truman Center for National Policy to discuss current and future city-level engagement with China. The event featured a presentation and panel discussion on how U.S.-China relations play out locally and what role these exchanges play in the broader U.S.-China relationship.

Asia visit with Brookings President Cecilia Rouse

Brookings delegation meets with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te

In December, a Brookings delegation—including Brookings President Cecilia Rouse, Suzanne Maloney, Ryan Hass, Mireya Solís, and Jennifer Mason—traveled to Taiwan and Japan.

More research and commentary   Taiwan's policy toward the Trump administration. Ryan Hass spoke at a joint event with Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research in Taipei on how Taiwan should approach the incoming Trump administration.   China's minimal gains from South Korea's domestic political crisis. Mary Gallagher wrote a column for World Politics Review on why Beijing will likely not benefit from South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol's failed self-coup.   Grassroots organizations in China. Diana Fu moderated a virtual event with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations on Anthony Spires' recent research about civil society organizations in China.   Beijing's response to Trump tariffs. Jonathan Czin was quoted by Politico's China Watcher newsletter on how policy initiatives begun under the Biden administration may be targeted first by Beijing if President-elect Trump enacts up to 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.   China-Russia relationship. Patricia Kim was highlighted by Columbia-Harvard's "China and the World Program" for her article on the threat of the Sino-Russian relationship to vital U.S. interests.   Washington's "end-state" debate in the competition between the U.S. and China. Ryan Hass and Yun Sun were cited by China Affairs on their respective positions in the debate over the ultimate goal of the U.S.-China competition.   Dissecting Washington's China consensus. Ryan Hass was cited in a policy draft paper by the Department of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and the Carter Center on his pushback to groupthink on China in Washington's policy community.   Chinese undergraduate students in the U.S. Yingyi Ma was quoted by the Wall Street Journal on how some Chinese undergraduates plan to pursue advanced degrees to stay in the United States longer.   Trump's inauguration invitation to Xi Jinping. Yun Sun was quoted by the Associated Press on Beijing's response to Trump's invitation to Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration.   Xi's response to the inauguration invitation. Yun Sun was quoted by Euro News on how it is not in Xi's interest to accept Trump's inauguration invite.   Technology regulations and internet splintering. R. David Edelman was quoted by ABS-CBN on a UK proposal for content moderation on social media platforms.   Chinese STEM workers' migration to the U.S. Yingyi Ma was quoted by Rest of World on how measures targeting China's technology impact the perceptions of Chinese STEM workers considering settling in the United States.   Increases in Chinese consumption. Evan Osnos was quoted by RealClearMarkets on the impact of China's economic rise on Chinese citizens' consumption patterns.   The Chinese government's authoritarian legality. Mary Gallagher was quoted by Texas Law Review on how China's ruling party uses the law to cultivate mass support, manage principal-agent problems, and exploit social cleavages.   Resilience in Taiwan's private sector. Richard Bush was cited by CommonWealth Magazine on the adaptiveness of Taiwan's private sector while the executive branch can overregulate other sectors like finance.

About the China Center at Brookings   The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.