The big question for Trump Atlantic Council Editors EDITORS' PICKS November 16, 2024 This week's edition brought to you by Ohimai Amaize, Social Media Editor

The big question for Trump

Atlantic Council Editors

EDITORS' PICKS 

November 16, 2024 

This week's edition brought to you by

Ohimai Amaize, Social Media Editor

 

 

NOVEMBER 16, 2024 | On this day in 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt established diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, ending nearly sixteen years of estrangement with Moscow. FDR hoped that renewed US-Soviet relations would help the US economy as well as deter Japan’s expansionist goals in Asia—which led to its joining the Axis powers of World War II. Nine decades later, the United States and its allies confront a new “Axis of Aggressors” in Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and rising tensions with China over Taiwan. As incoming President Donald Trump assembles a cabinet, he faces opportunities and threats to US interests around the world. The big question is whether, like FDR, he is ready to confront the challenges of a wartime president. This week’s Editors’ Picks paint a vivid picture of some of the challenges ahead.

 

#1. Russia, again. The fallout from Georgia’s disputed October 26 parliamentary elections has been a victory for Moscow. Russia analyst Nicholas Chkhaidze argues that despite popular opposition, the Kremlin has managed to cement its influence in Georgia by aligning with local elites and sidestepping global outcry over election interference. While Georgia’s Western allies have expressed concern over the elections, Nicholas writes, they remain hesitant to withhold official recognition, underscoring Russia’s strategic success in the Caucasus. Nicholas warns that Russia is likely to replicate its Georgia playbook in upcoming elections in Moldova—and potentially in postwar Ukraine. Find out what this means for Georgia’s democratic future and EU integration.

 

#2. Game theory. Trump faces a world far more dangerous than he did during his first term, says Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council. Fred outlines the disturbing reality: China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are coordinating in unprecedented ways, just as fifty thousand Russian and North Korean troops prepare for battle against Ukraine. While the idea of a “grand strategy” might not be Trump’s style, Fred argues it is exactly what’s required for the United States to navigate this volatile era. Can the incoming president forge a new form of “Trump-Atlanticism” to rally the United States and its allies around a cohesive plan to shape this perilous new era? Read Fred’s compelling analysis here.

 

#3. Billions. Trump’s tariffs are making a comeback, and this time, the stakes are higher, says Josh Lipsky, who heads our GeoEconomics Center. Drawing on his experience as an International Monetary Fund adviser during the 2018 US-China trade war, Josh says IMF modeling at the time projected that relatively small dispute would cost the global economy upwards of $700 billion. (The response from Trump administration officials, Josh recalls, was: “That’s it?”) This time, the impact could be much broader. Josh explains that Trump’s renewed tariff push is not just a negotiation tactic, as some on Wall Street are hoping. It’s a core plank of his beliefs on trade. So, what will the opening salvo of this new trade war look like? Unpack the full implications.

 

#4. Money talks. President Joe Biden is meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping today in Lima, Peru, at the 2024 APEC Leaders’ Summit. While the United States has long been a key trade and investment partner in the region, our Latin America and China experts Martin Cassinelli and Caroline Costello note that China’s economic and political ties in Latin America are deepening rapidly. Biden’s visit, they argue, risks being overshadowed by Xi’s inauguration of a $3.5 billion deep-water port in Chancay, Peru. Going forward, Martin and Caroline predict Latin American countries will demand diplomacy that delivers real economic results. Can Washington rise to the challenge? Get the full picture of what’s at stake.

 

#5. Taiwan tightrope. After the Peru visit, Biden and Xi will head to Brazil for the G20 summit, where the other nations in attendance would be put in a real bind in the event of a crisis over Taiwan that leads the United States and its allies to impose economic sanctions on China. In a new report by our GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group, analysts Matthew Mingey, Laura Gormley, and Logan Wright examine how Brazil, South Korea, and Indonesia might respond to economic pressure from both sides. Brazil faces little risk of punitive measures from China given its BRICS ties, while South Korea’s closeness to the G7 and economic links to China will require a delicate balancing act. Meanwhile, Indonesia is likely to maintain its foreign policy stance of nonalignment. Read more about how each nation might navigate a Taiwan crisis.