By Amy Mackinnon
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep.
Here’s what’s on tap for the day: The world watches anxiously as Americans head to the polls in one of the most consequential presidential elections in memory, Hezbollah has a new boss, and Russia fines Google an astronomical sum over YouTube restrictions.
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Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East Hang in the Balance
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media at a press conference during a European Council session on Oct. 17.Jean Catuffe/Getty Images
We’re just five days out from Election Day, and the U.S. presidential race could not be tighter, with polls showing the two candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, neck and neck.
The election comes as the world finds itself at one of the most critical junctures of the post-Cold War era. With stark differences between how the two candidates are likely to conduct their foreign policy, who wins the White House next week has profound consequences for the major crises roiling the globe today. Most immediately, here’s what the election could mean for the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Ukraine and Europe. The result is likely to have a significant impact on the course of the war in Ukraine, where Russia is chipping away at Ukrainian territory in the Donbas. The United States is the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, and that aid has played a decisive role in limiting Russia’s advance during the course of the war.
Harris, who has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky several times, is widely expected to continue the Biden administration’s approach to the war. In her words, that translates to “supporting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked aggression.” She told Zelensky in September that she “will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war,” but in a 60 Minutes interview this month, she declined to say whether she would support Ukraine’s request to join NATO. The Biden administration opposes Ukraine joining the alliance until the war with Russia has ended.
Trump, on the other hand, has put nerves on edge in Ukraine and Europe, promising to end the conflict in one day.
U.S. assistance is likely to be “cut off” if the former president is reelected, said Jim Townsend, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO during the Obama administration. “Unless he’s going to use that as leverage over Zelensky,” Townsend said.
Indeed, Trump has suggested that his approach to ending the war would involve pushing both sides to the negotiating table by telling Zelensky that he’s getting no more U.S. aid and that it’s time to make a deal while telling Russian President Vladimir Putin the opposite: that the United States will give Ukraine even more support if the Russian leader doesn’t play ball.
NATO allies are bracing for a potential pullback in U.S. support to Ukraine in the event of a Trump victory. Earlier this year, the alliance assumed control of the formerly U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which oversees military aid and training to the country, in a bid to shield it from sudden policy shifts in Washington.
Townsend, who remains in contact with European officials, said that a year ago, the mood ahead of the U.S. presidential election was one of shock amid the scramble to “Trump-proof” aid for Ukraine. In recent months, the mood has shifted to one of “grim watching and waiting.”
Counter programming. On a more optimistic note, a source close to the Ukrainian government said that decision-makers in Kyiv are “fairly calm” about the election, noting that it was Trump who first made the decision to provide lethal military aid to Ukraine—once considered a red line by former President Barack Obama—and imposed sanctions on a Russian gas pipeline to Europe that was strongly opposed by Ukraine.
“They believe that Putin will frustrate Trump, potentially causing him to provide more robust U.S. military assistance to Ukraine,” said the source, who was granted anonymity to share a candid assessment of the thinking in Kyiv.
Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon. The prospect of a changing of the guard in Washington is already being felt in the Middle East, as Israel appears to be waiting until the election results are known before moving forward on any cease-fire deals in Gaza or Lebanon. Israel is also seeking to lock in strategic gains against its adversaries Hamas and Hezbollah before a new president takes the White House, Reuters reports.
Trump ticked off a lot of items from Israel’s diplomatic wish list during his first presidency, moving the U.S. Embassy to the contested city of Jerusalem and formally recognizing the country’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Opinion polls in Israel show strong support for Trump.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump were close during his first term in office. But their relationship was strained after Netanyahu publicly congratulated Biden on his victory in the 2020 election one day after the race was called, angering Trump. “F**k him,” Trump told Axios in 2021.
Analysts predict that Harris will largely be a continuity president when it comes to the Middle East—with some speculation that she may be quicker to speak out on the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
In a briefing hosted by the Jerusalem Press Club in September, Israeli analyst Shmuel Rosner likened the two presidential candidates to different types of investments. “Do we prefer the solid state bond that’s Harris, or the high-risk high-reward hedge fund that’s Donald Trump?”
An area of shared common ground between Trump and Harris? Both have called for a rapid end to the war in Gaza. “Both Harris and Trump have expressed sympathy for Israel’s predicament, but both seem interested in above all an end to the hostilities,” said Shalom Lipner, who served as an aide to seven Israeli prime ministers.
Top Biden administration officials are in the Middle East this week (more on that below) amid ongoing efforts to pull the region back from the brink. Regardless of who the election, securing any deals during a lame-duck administration could prove challenging for Biden, Lipner said.
“He’ll be dealing with people on this side of the ocean [who will be] wondering, ‘Can I get a better deal the day after [the inauguration],’” added Lipner, who spoke from Israel.
Iran. In an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes earlier this month, Harris named Iran as the United States’ greatest adversary and said that one of her highest priorities would be preventing the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The vice president has said she would prefer to pursue a diplomatic route to this end, but she noted in a call with Jewish voters that “all options are on the table.”
Trump, who withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, said in September that he would be open to striking a new deal with Tehran to prevent the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear bomb.
But Robert Greenway, who served as the senior director for the Middle East on Trump’s National Security Council, told Foreign Policy that Iran has to know that the use of force is on the table. “The military option may be the only viable option left to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon,” he said.
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One pressing question. Two opposing points of view. |
FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky hosts Counterpoint, a new podcast from FP and the Doha Forum. Listen in as an international cast of diplomats, journalists, academics and activists from around the globe debate controversial issues that get to the heart of the world’s biggest dilemmas. |
Let’s Get Personnel
Hezbollah named Naim Qassem as its new leader following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah last month.
Ambassador Jessica Lapenn, the inaugural U.S. senior coordinator for Atlantic cooperation, is retiring after 30 years in the foreign service, the State Department announced this week.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Rough Draft. Ukraine is set to draft an additional 160,000 people into the armed forces, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko announced on Tuesday. New recruits would add to the one million people already drafted into the country’s military since martial law began, the Kyiv Independent reports. Ukraine’s forces have been stretched thin by Russia’s grinding offensive in the Donbas and have struggled to generate new forces to compensate for battlefield losses. The Economist offers a sobering look at Ukraine’s struggle to survive, which is well worth your time.
Full-court press. A fleet of top Biden administration officials are being dispatched to the Middle East this week in a bid to tamp down tensions in the region, CBS’s Margaret Brennan reports. CIA Director Bill Burns is in Cairo while White House officials Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk as well as Centcom Commander Erik Kurilla are in Israel.
Can you, Canada? Canada would have to double its defense spending by 2032 to reach its stated goal of meeting NATO’s spending target of 2 percent of its GDP, according to a new report by a parliamentary watchdog. This could put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ambition to meet the alliance’s spending goals on a collision course with government plans to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio.
Snapshot
U.S. President Joe Biden playfully greets a baby as he and first lady Jill Biden welcome trick-or-treaters during a Halloween event at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 30. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
Put On Your Radar
Oct. 31: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin host their counterparts from South Korea in Washington for the sixth U.S.-Republic of Korea Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting
Nov. 3: Moldova holds a presidential election runoff
Nov. 4-7: Interpol convenes its 92nd General Assembly in Glasgow
Nov. 5: U.S. presidential and legislative elections take place
Quote of the Week
“I don’t know if you know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.”
—Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, speaking at a Trump rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday. The comment sparked anger, including from prominent Puerto Rican public figures, causing the Trump campaign to publicly disavow the remark. The campaign did not disavow any of the other racist, misogynistic, and crude statements made by Hinchcliffe and other featured speakers at the rally about Jews, Palestinians, Latinos, Black people, Harris, and Hillary Clinton.
This Week’s Most Read
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Two undecillion rubles, or $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. That’s how much a Russian court has fined Google for restricting state media channels on YouTube, the BBC reports. That’s more than the world’s entire GDP, which the International Monetary Fund estimates to be $110 trillion.
What We’re Reading
The Washington Post has a detailed look at Beijing’s “staggering military buildup” on the island of Hainan. A popular holiday destination that’s often dubbed China’s Hawaii, the island in the South China Sea hosts three air bases; a space launch site; and East Yulin Naval Base, which is home to Chinese destroyers and nuclear-armed submarines. The buildup is part of Beijing’s multibillion-dollar investment in military infrastructure in the South China Sea, which analysts fear could undercut a U.S. military advantage in the event of a head-to-head conflict, the Post’s Ellen Nakashima and Laris Karklis report.
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