CTP - Critical Threats and ISW
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE
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Iran Update, November 17, 2024
The IDF killed the head of Hezbollah’s media office, Mohammad Afif, in central Beirut on November 17.[i] The IDF conducted a strike targeting Afif in a residential building in Ras al Nabaa, a neighborhood in central Beirut.[ii] Hezbollah confirmed Afif’s death.[iii] Afif was reportedly visiting a Syrian Ba’ath Party in Lebanon branch office at the time of the strike, according to the office’s head.[iv] The Lebanese Health Ministry reported the strike killed one and injured three others.[v]
Afif’s killing is a continuation of the IDF’s campaign to target senior Hezbollah leadership to further degrade Hezbollah’s command-and-control. The IDF said that Afif worked with senior Hezbollah officials to direct military operations, particularly after Israeli operations seriously disrupted Hezbollah‘s strategic- and operational-level military leadership.[vi] Afif had served as Hezbollah’s spokesperson since 2014 and facilitated Hezbollah’s news coverage and media relations.[vii] Afif managed Hezbollah’s attack claims and documentation related to attack claims and coordinated Hezbollah‘s messaging with Lebanese media.[viii] Afif played a role in Hezbollah’s October 19 drone attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's house in Caesarea.[ix] He was a close adviser to Nasrallah and had become the highest-ranking Hezbollah official to hold public conferences in Beirut over the past month.[x] Afif’s killing is likely intended to further disrupt Hezbollah’s command-and-control structures and its attempts to rehabilitate those structures by having other officials step into previous commanders' roles.
The IDF’s ground operation in Lebanon has enabled the IDF to begin taking steps to return Israelis to their homes. Israeli operations in Lebanon have done this by reducing the threat of anti-tank fire and other munitions to northern Israeli towns. Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has removed all military checkpoints and roadblocks on roads near the Israel-Lebanon border that have been closed to civilians over the past year.[xi] The IDF’s re-opening of roads along the border indicates that the IDF has assessed that Israeli operations have significantly reduced the threat of anti-tank fire and other short-range munitions enough to allow civilians to return to previously targeted areas.[xii] An unspecified IDF official told Israeli Army Radio that civilian movement in the north is ”free” because of the ”IDF’s control of Lebanese territory.” The IDF has disrupted Hezbollah’s ability to conduct direct fire—including anti-tank fire—and observed indirect attacks targeting northern Israel by seizing key terrain north of the border. Hezbollah's rate of anti-tank fire attacks has significantly dropped since the IDF began ground operations on October 1, suggesting that Israeli operations successfully pushed Hezbollah fighters back from the immediate border and disrupted Hezbollah’s ability to conduct these attacks.[xiii] Hezbollah may still be able to conduct attacks with direct line-of-sight into Israel from further back from the Israel-Lebanon border, however. Israeli forces are currently operating in ”second-line” Lebanese villages to prevent additional attacks from longer range.
Re-opening northern roads is a part of the IDF‘s efforts to prepare for the return of northern residents to their homes.[xiv] The IDF also plans to soon withdraw IDF soldiers based in northern towns and return them to IDF outposts and bases.[xv] This is consistent with recent comments from unspecified senior IDF officers that said that the IDF was considering returning displaced civilians to the north even without a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.[xvi]
Likely Hezbollah fighters fired at UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon on November 16.[xvii] UNIFIL reported that an armed group prevented a patrol of French and Finnish peacekeepers from conducting a patrol in Bedias, Tyre District. The patrol continued along its planned route into the village of Maarakeh. UNIFIL said that “likely non-state actors“ fired upon the patrol about 40 times. The only non-state armed groups operating in southern Lebanon are Hezbollah and groups that Hezbollah permits to operate in southern Lebanon. Some patrol vehicles had bullet impacts but no peacekeepers were injured. UNIFIL said it is unacceptable that peacekeepers are routinely targeted while conducting UN Security Council-mandated tasks. UNIFIL stated that it is the responsibility of Lebanese authorities to ensure that UNIFIL peacekeepers can carry out their mandated tasks without fear or threats.
The IDF is changing the length of time it activates reserve forces. This change appears designed to enable the IDF to sustain a longer war. An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on November 17 that the IDF is planning to standardize the service duration of IDF reserve brigades to one period of 70 consecutive days every year.[xviii] The IDF has activated multiple reserve brigades several times since October 7, with at least one brigade serving for more than 200 days out of the year. The long and repeated call-ups to meet the needs of the IDF during the October 7 War has reportedly caused ”burnout” among IDF reservists.[xix] This has caused a decrease in the number of reservists reporting for duty. These changes to the IDF’s policies regarding reserve call-ups presumably seek to address this burnout and make a longer war more sustainable for the force.
Israeli media reported on November 17 that Hamas’ political leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey.[xx] Qatar previously ordered Hamas’ political leadership to relocate from Doha, according to US officials and Israeli media.[xxi] The United States reportedly pressured Qatar to expel Hamas’ political leadership after the group rejected the latest ceasefire-hostage agreement proposed by international mediators.[xxii]
Key Takeaways:
Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The IDF strike that killed Hezbollah media chief Mohammad Afif is a continuation of the IDF’s campaign to target senior Hezbollah leadership to further degrade Hezbollah’s command-and-control. The IDF said that Afif worked with senior Hezbollah officials to direct military operations, particularly after Israeli operations seriously disrupted Hezbollah‘s strategic- and operational-level military leadership.
Israeli Ground Campaign in Lebanon: The IDF’s ground operation in Lebanon has enabled the IDF to begin taking steps to return Israelis to their homes. The IDF has removed all military checkpoints and roadblocks on roads near the Israel-Lebanon border that have been closed to civilians over the past year. The IDF’s re-opening of roads along the border indicates that the IDF has assessed that Israeli operations have significantly reduced the threat of anti-tank fire and other short-range munitions enough to allow civilians to return to previously targeted areas.
UNIFIL: Likely Hezbollah fighters fired at UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon on November 16. UNIFIL said that “likely non-state actors“ fired upon a patrol about 40 times. The only non-state armed groups operating in southern Lebanon are Hezbollah and groups that Hezbollah permits to operate in southern Lebanon.
IDF Reserve Policies: The IDF is changing the length of time it activates reserve forces. This change appears designed to enable the IDF to sustain a longer war. The IDF is planning to standardize the service duration of IDF reserve brigades to one period of 70 consecutive days every year. The long and repeated call-ups to meet the needs of the IDF during the October 7 War has reportedly caused ”burnout” among IDF reservists.
Hamas Moves to Turkey: Israeli media reported on November 17 that Hamas’ political leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey
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