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A view of candles lit to offer condolences over the deaths of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi and others, outside the Iranian embassy, in Baghdad, Iraq May 20, 2024. (Reuters)
In Focus
Death of Iran’s Raisi: Implications for Middle East security and stability
The disarray and uncertainty resulting from Raisi’s passing could present an opening for moderates, but a more likely outcome is continuation of hardline rule
Iran
Jennifer Bell, Al Arabiya English
Published: 21 May ,2024: 08:28 AM GST
Updated: 21 May ,2024: 04:56 PM GST
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and raised questions about the potential geopolitical ramifications of his passing. While experts believe the immediate impact on regional security will be minimal, the long-term consequences could be significant, exerts have told Al Arabiya English.
On a foggy Sunday in a remote area of northwestern Iran, a helicopter carrying Raisi, a hardline conservative cleric who assumed Iran’s presidency in 2021, as well as Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other senior officials lost communication and crashed. The incident occurred as the helicopter was returning to Tabriz after Raisi attended a joint inauguration of a dam with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
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Iraqis carry portraits of Iran's late president Ebrahim Raisi outside the Iranian embassy in Baghdad during a condolences service on May 20, 2024 for the president and his entourage, who were killed in a helicopter crash in Iran the previous day. (AFP)
State TV broke the news early Monday, describing Raisi as having “achieved the highest level of martyrdom.” Images of the late president, accompanied by recitations from the Quran, filled the screen. The crash not only claimed the lives of Iran’s top officials, but also triggered a wave of uncertainty across the nation and beyond – at a time of rising tensions between Iran and its regional rivals, as well as heightened unrest within Iran itself.
According to regional experts and analysts, while Raisi’s death itself is unlikely to immediately alter Iran’s foreign policy trajectory or regional posture, it does have the potential to shake up Iran’s domestic politics and inject further uncertainty into an already volatile part of the world.
‘Limited’ short-term regional security impact
This combination of pictures shows handout photos released by the Iranian presidency on May 20, 2024 of the empty seats of Iran’s late President Ebrahim Raisi (L) and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian during a cabinet meeting held in Tehran the same day, following a plane crash in which they were both killed the previous day. (Via AFP)
In the immediate aftermath of Raisi’s death, most observers do not anticipate drastic changes to the Middle East’s security landscape. They point to the Islamic Republic’s entrenched power structure and proxy warfare approach as key reasons.
“In the short term, I do not think President Raisi’s death will have much of an impact on the current tensions in the Middle East,” said senior political scientist at RAND Corporation, Raphael Cohen.
Cohen pointed to three main factors limiting the broader security implications of Raisi’s passing in the near future.
“First, in most states, there is a fair bit of bureaucratic inertia in terms of policy, such that even if the leader at the top is removed, the overall policies remain the same,” he explained. “Moreover, in Iran’s case in particular, Supreme Leader Khamenei also directs national security policies and he’s still alive.”
Cohen also noted the role of Iran’s proxy groups in maintaining continuity. “It’s worth remembering Iran is fighting the current war largely by proxy, and the leadership of those proxy groups – such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Hamas – also remains intact, which gives yet another reason to expect continuity.”
Other experts, too, echoed Cohen’s assessment that Iran’s foreign policy and military postures are unlikely to shift substantially due to Raisi’s death alone.
“Strategic decisions are set by the supreme leader and the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps], not the president,” posted Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, on X. “Expect continued rigidity in US relations and regional policies.”
Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, agreed, noting on Twitter that “Iran’s foreign policy won’t change. The president doesn’t have much sway on security issues, and Raisi was particularly passive on such matters, referring all things to Khamenei and the IRGC.”
Speaking at a press briefing on Monday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin echoed this perspective. “I don’t necessarily see any broader regional security impacts at this point as a result of the helicopter crash that killed the top Iranian officials,” Austin told reporters.
This frame grab from video released by the Iranian Red Crescent on May 20, 2024 shows a screen display showing a video showing the crash site of the helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi in East Azerbaijan province. (AFP)
Longer-term implications could be significant
While Raisi’s passing itself may not immediately alter the fragile security situation in the Middle East, his death does remove an important player from Iran’s domestic political scene and could have longer-term implications for the country’s foreign policy orientation.
“In the longer term though, I think it will depend a little on who Raisi’s successor is and, more importantly, who eventually replaces Khamenei, too,” Cohen of RAND Corporation said.
Khamenei, who wields ultimate power in Iran’s political system, is 83 years old. The question of who will replace him when he dies or steps down looms large over Iran’s future.
Some experts worry that if Khamenei were to be succeeded by his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who is seen as a hardliner, it could catalyze unrest and public opposition.
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out the potential for a succession crisis. “In Iran’s conspiratorial political culture, few will believe Raisi’s death was accidental,” Sadjadpour wrote on X. If Khamenei’s son Mojtaba succeeds him, “this could lead to popular unrest. Mojtaba’s lack of legitimacy and popularity means he’d be entirely reliant on the IRGC to maintain order. This could hasten the regime’s transition to military rule or its potential collapse.”
Depending on who emerges as Iran’s next president and eventual supreme leader, the country could shift toward a more conciliatory foreign policy stance. But a more hardline leadership could also lead to increased backing for regional militant groups and proxy forces.
“One could hope that more sweeping leadership changes would allow Iran to moderate its policies both at home and abroad, but that’s still very much up in the air at this point,” Cohen commented.
A man lights a candle to offer condolences over the deaths of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi and others, outside the Iranian embassy, in Baghdad, Iraq May 20, 2024. (Reuters)
Domestic political shakeup on the horizon
While foreign policy may remain steady in the short term, Raisi’s death seems certain to shake up Iran’s domestic political environment.
Iran’s supreme leader has declared five days of national mourning and appointed Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim president, Iran is set to hold presidential elections on June 28. The registration of candidates will take place from May 30 to June 3, with campaigning from June 12 to June 27. The compressed timeframe leaves little opportunity for candidates to mount campaigns and raises questions about turnout, given widespread discontent with the regime among ordinary Iranians.
“The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” noted the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, Dr Sanam Vakil, in an interview.
“While the system will maintain business as usual, they have to get the vote out and find a compelling candidate in 50 days. This is not an easy task for a regime facing a perpetual legitimacy crisis with public apathy at an all-time high,” Vakil added.
Raisi, a hardline conservative and close ally of Khamenei, was seen as a pillar of the Iranian regime’s stability. His sudden removal from the political scene leaves a significant power vacuum.
Vaez of Crisis Group notes Raisi’s death “will trigger elections at a time when the IRI [Islamic Republic of Iran] is at the nadir of its legitimacy and zenith of its exclusionary policies.”
The disarray and uncertainty resulting from Raisi’s passing could present an opening for Iranian reformists and moderates, seeking gradual change, but a more likely outcome appears to be the continuation of hardline rule, now without one of its central figures.
“The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” predicted Vakil.
International and regional reactions
The loss of Raisi elicited a range of responses from the international community. Iran’s close partners Russia and China were effusive in their tributes, with Russian President Vladimir Putin hailing him as “an outstanding politician” and “a true friend”, while Chinese President Xi Jinping said “the Chinese people have lost a good friend.”
Iran’s regional allies and proxies also offered condolences and praise. Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels all portrayed Raisi as a strong supporter of their “resistance” against Israel and the West. Lebanon, Iraq, Qatar and Oman were among the Middle Eastern states expressing sympathy.
The European Union, NATO, Japan and India extended more measured condolences to Iran and the victims’ families. The United States offered official condolences while reaffirming “support for the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights and fundamental freedoms.” White House spokesman John Kirby said Raisi “had a lot of blood on his hands” for rights abuses.
Ordinary Iranians assess Raisi’s legacy
Not all the regional reactions were positive.
On the streets of Iran, reactions to Raisi’s death have been mixed. While state media has portrayed him as a righteous “martyr” and champion of the people, many ordinary Iranians hold a very different view of his tenure.
“He never supported us, never kept his promises, never called for a ceasefire, and never stood by us,” said Naji Khodeir, a resident of the Gaza Strip, which has been bombarded by Israeli airstrikes during Raisi’s presidency.
Other Iranians saw Raisi as emblematic of the regime’s failures and disconnect from the populace.
Over the past two years, Raisi presided over a brutal crackdown on nationwide anti-regime protests, leaving hundreds dead and thousands imprisoned.
While the regime has sought to present his death as an unfathomable tragedy, graffiti seen in Tehran in recent days captures the dismissive sentiment of many Iranians.
Laila, a 21-year-old student in Tehran, told Reuters by phone that she was not saddened by Raisi’s death, “because he ordered the crackdown on women over hijab.”
“But I am sad because even with Raisi’s death this regime will not change,” she added.
What comes next?
As Iran prepares to bury Raisi and elect his successor, the Middle East braces for uncertainty.
In the short term, little may change, with Khamenei and the IRGC continuing to dictate Iran’s foreign policy. But Raisi’s death ushers in a period of unpredictability.
With public opposition simmering, proxy wars raging, and the question of eventual leadership transition looming, the structural challenges facing Tehran remain immense. Raisi’s passing itself does not fundamentally alter these core dilemmas, but does make their future trajectory even harder to foresee.
Regional leaders will watch closely for signs of policy shifts or turmoil emerging from Tehran, but for now, Iran’s domestic politics, not so much its foreign policy, seem most shaken by the sudden loss of Raisi. The long-term reverberations of his death for regional security remain to be seen.
Al Arabiya's Yaghoub Fazeli contributed to this report.
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