NYT Russia - Ukraine War Briefing December 09, 2022

 

December 9, 2022

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

A Russian court sentenced the opposition politician Ilya Yashin to eight and a half years in prison for “spreading false information” about atrocities that Russian troops committed in the Ukrainian city of Bucha. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused the Kremlin of waging a genocidal war, a day after President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russian strikes were targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Get the latest updates here.

Footage from Russian state media showed Brittney Griner during the swap with Viktor Bout on the tarmac at Abu Dhabi airport. via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Inside the Griner-Bout swap

Brittney Griner, the American basketball star, returned home today, landing in San Antonio after a 10-month ordeal in Russia. Griner was released in exchange for Viktor Bout, one of the world’s most notorious arms dealers, who earned the nickname “Merchant of Death.”

The swap was greeted as a victory for Russia by Kremlin supporters, while in the U.S., President Biden’s administration faced criticism from some Republicans for failing to secure the release of a second American in the exchange: Paul Whelan, a corporate security executive who was arrested at a Moscow hotel in December 2018.

“Putin outplayed Biden,” Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, wrote on his Telegram channel. “We got back our spy, it seems, and gave away a normal girl.”

Bout has been accused of supplying arms to Al Qaeda, the Taliban and rebels in Rwanda. Russia had been seeking his return since he was arrested in an undercover operation in Bangkok in 2008. He was convicted in 2011 in New York on charges including conspiracy to kill American citizens. Prosecutors said he had agreed to sell antiaircraft weapons to informants posing as arms buyers for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

Griner, a W.N.B.A. star, was detained in February just before Russia invaded Ukraine. She was found guilty of trying to smuggle illegal narcotics into Russia after carrying vape cartridges containing hashish oil in her luggage. She was sentenced to nine years in one of Russia’s most notorious penal colonies.

My colleagues Michael Shear and Peter Baker reported from Washington that a deal on a swap began to take shape after the midterm elections.

Just after the elections last month, Russian contacts delivered a message suggesting a one-for-one deal — Griner for Bout, according to U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. American diplomats concluded that the timing was a calculated move on Russia’s part to avoid handing a political victory to Biden ahead of the midterms.

Viktor Bout interviewed on Russian state television after his arrival in Moscow.All-Russian Television and Radio Broadcasting Company, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Despite the huge disparity in the severity of their offenses, U.S. officials considered that the Russians were finally making a real counteroffer after months of stonewalling.

The U.S. would have to consider excluding Whelan from the trade, and Russia was ready to drop its insistence that Vadim Krasikov, a convicted assassin serving a life sentence in Germany, also be released.

On Dec. 1, Biden hosted Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, for a state dinner at the White House. He had made his decision days earlier. If the Russians agreed to swap Griner for Bout, he would take that deal and keep working for Whelan’s release in the future.

In the context of the war in Ukraine, there was a clear undertone to the crowing in Moscow over the prison exchange, my colleagues Anton Troianovski and Valery Hopkins write.

To his supporters, Putin remains a deal maker, and he stands ready to negotiate over Ukraine as long as the West does not block his goal of pulling the country into his orbit.

At a news conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, today, Putin said that Griner’s release was “a result of negotiations and a search for compromises.” As for whether the deal could lead to further talks with the U.S., Putin said: “Of course, they create a certain atmosphere.”

Brittney Griner arriving in San Antonio.Suzanne Cordeiro/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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What else we’re following

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Ukraine

Russia has fired more than 1,000 missiles and drones at Ukraine’s power infrastructure since Oct. 10, the chairman of Ukraine’s national utility said. While Russian missiles pound Ukrainian cities, a debate is already in full swing over the reconstruction of postwar Ukraine. After the return of Kherson, Crimea has come within Ukraine’s sights. But for now, it would be wise to go slow on recapturing the peninsula, Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write in Foreign Affairs.

Around the world

Turkey is complicating the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO, U.S. officials say. Qatar is poised to become a critical energy source for Europe as the continent pivots from its dependence on Russia. Turkey has deepened its energy ties to Russia. The price of oil fell by about 10 percent this week despite tougher sanctions on Russian crude. Now is not the time to push for premature peace, Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, writes in Foreign Affairs. The only path to peace is to push Russia out of Ukraine. The documentary “20 Days in Mariupol,” by the Ukrainian-born director and Associated Press video journalist Mstyslav Chernov, will premiere at the Sundance Film Festival next month.

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Sviatohirsk, a town in the Donbas, is back under Ukrainian control, but its residents remain divided by their allegiances to Moscow or Kyiv.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Monday. — Carole

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