Turkey has become an indispensable intermediary in the Ukraine–Russia–West ternary, and wherever one currently looks, Ankara is often already there. Since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Turkey has maintained close ties with Ukraine and Russia in a skillful balancing act of strategic ambiguity. It is not surprising that in the long-term, Ankara hopes to use its diplomatic position, which it considers ‘well-balanced’ between the two parties, to bring the Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table. Because Ankara is also worried about Russia’s expansionism in the region. Turkey has become a prisoner of economic ties with Moscow, be it through signing up to Russia’s TurkStream pipeline project to bypass Ukrainian territory in delivering Russian gas to Europe or purchasing S-400 missile systems, despite criticism from the US and NATO. Turkey has many companies that have obtained licenses to build in Russia; it is interested in peace because this would also mean Western sanctions would have an end date. In the five years preceding the war, Turkish-Ukrainian relations went from strength to strength, partly due to Ankara’s close ties to the Crimean Tatar community, a Turkic ethnic group, and helping to set up the Crimea Platform diplomatic initiative. A crucial point, and one that probably irks Putin the most, is that Ankara was one of the few partners prepared to cooperate seriously with Ukraine in terms of the defence industry, especially on advanced drones and warships. This significantly contributed to the modernisation of Ukraine’s armed forces after 2014. Then, of course, take the grain deal, which set a precedent, and Black Sea shipping security issues. Some wagging tongues even suggested that Russia’s grain deal U-turn was orchestrated to make Turkey look even more credible and indispensable- a view shared not only among hawkish European diplomats. In the end, one has to admit; no one else has managed to mediate on the line between Kyiv and Moscow more successfully and produce deliverables. | 
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