The Brief – Life after Putin

 The Brief – Life after Putin

(DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EURACTIV Media network.)

By Alexandra Brzozowski | EURACTIV.com May 4, 2022

The Brief is EURACTIV's evening newsletter.

 [EPA-EFE/SASCHA STEINBACH]

The war in Ukraine will end at some point, but the way Europe diplomatically deals with Russia will never be the same again.

Western diplomats, military experts, and pundits have several scenarios of how this war will finish.

But one thing most hawks and doves increasingly agree on is that Russia will remain a revisionist power as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in office. 

The war and its extensive geopolitical ramifications have proven that as long as Putin sits in the Kremlin, he will be ready to open the gates of hell the more desperate the situation on the battlefield gets.

For him, potentially losing the war will mean prosecution, either international or domestic. If Putin levels Ukraine to the ground and Western sanctions harden further, his loyalists, cronies and potential successors will face the question: Do we oust him, or do we suffer his fate?

Unsubstantiated rumours of coup preparation are already doing the rounds.

In the coming weeks, if Putin loses the battle for the Donbas, like he lost the one for Kyiv, to save face in Russia, he might be tempted to go a step further.

­Because can there really be a face-saving solution for him without a Russian victory? Can there be an international absolution for a war criminal? If we look at history, most of them eventually either lost power or ended up in a courtroom, or both.

Either way, with or without Putin, what comes next will be peace talks for Ukraine and, for the West, a gradual diplomatic re-engagement with Russia. 

The only scenario Kyiv and its Western allies currently see as the basis for avoiding another ambitious Minsk-style agreement is if Ukraine can negotiate from a position of power. For this, the West needs to provide heavy weapons, and Ukraine must reap military successes in the short term.

But there seems to be agreement that in the long term, sustainable peace in Europe can only be preserved if Ukraine is entirely rebuilt, shows signs of sustainable economic prosperity, and is en route towards EU membership, however long that might take.

But for the EU, an end to the war will also mean facing a deep soul-searching exercise.

What kind of relations with Russia are possible, and under what conditions?

It will require sticking to the lesson already learned, namely that Putin cannot be trusted to leave Russia’s immediate neighbourhood alone.

Several diplomats told EURACTIV it is becoming clearer by the day that Europe will not be able to shift its attention away from Ukraine or, in fact, the entire Eastern Partnership region for years to come. 

Failure to keep close tabs on the region could risk seeing renewed troubles or smashing the hopes of millions of citizens of a better life in the EU.

The implications could be either enlargement becoming an ultimate goal or, at worst, accepting a multi-speed-Europe, with different layers of political and economic integration.

Meanwhile, the taboos removed on the EU side will inevitably catch up with it. 

The most obvious is that the EU, a peace project by nature, has decided to fund and provide lethal weapons to a third country. A step that has fundamentally changed how the bloc is perceived on the international stage and by its own members.

Furthermore, the long shadow of this crisis will remain.

“It is clear that the series of sanctions packages that have been implemented since 24 February is here to stay for a while, beyond the immediate aftermath of the war,” one EU source told EURACTIV. 

Some more hawkish EU diplomats even count in terms of years.

Although the bloc has proven to be creative with legal procedures, lifting sanctions any time soon is unlikely.

“As the treaties stand, we will require unanimity to remove the sanctions – watch the Eastern Europeans ever agreeing to that, unless they see a weaker Russia,” one EU diplomat said.

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