Tuesday, May 31, 2022

The EU just escalated its economic war against Russia's "war machine.(Defense One)

 

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The D Brief
May 31, 2022

The EU just escalated its economic war against Russia's "war machine." European Union leaders said Monday evening that the 27-nation bloc will ban sea-borne Russian oil, which affects about two-thirds of Moscow's estimated $10 billion in monthly oil exports to Europe. The ban will rise to about 90% of Russian oil imports by the end of the year, as Germany and Poland gradually turn away from those sources by the end of the calendar year to further punish Russia for invading its democratic neighbor Ukraine in late-February. 

Notable: The new sanctions exempt Russian oil delivered via pipeline. This "temporary" exemption was designed to allow the landlocked nations of Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic to continue their access to oil via Russia's Druzhba ("friendship") line, which has been in operation since 1964 and is the world's longest oil pipeline, stretching nearly 3,500 miles.

"Two-thirds of the oil that we have in the European Union is sea-borne, and one-third is pipeline," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said when announcing the sanctions, which is the bloc's sixth iteration, and includes removing Russia's largest bank (Sberbank) from the Swift financial system, and banning another three Russian state-run media outlets from broadcasting across the EU. These new sanctions will "immediately" cover those "two-thirds of oil imports from Russia, cutting a huge source of financing for its war machine," European Council chief Charles Michel tweeted Monday. "Maximum pressure on Russia to end the war," he added.

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Regarding the roughly 10% that's exempt, von der Leyen and Michel would like to close that pipeline-delivered gap as soon as possible; but it's unclear when that might come, since it involves the consent of Hungary's increasingly autocratic leader. "This is a topic we will come back to and where we will still have to work on," she said. 

Backup plan: Croatia says it's ready to ship oil to Hungary via a line known as the Adriatic, should Russia cut the supply via Druzhba in the months ahead, according to Reuters. But in the meantime, Hungary's refineries "will have to be updated because the Russian oil is of a different quality than the Adriatic pipeline oil," von der Leyen said. "So it is good to have a certain amount of time and activity to fulfill all these criteria so that Hungary can really switch off the Russian oil." 

Bigger picture: The EU's new sanctions "could fan global inflation, already running at its highest rate in decades in major economies, and exacerbate a shortage of fuels in poorer regions that will compete with Europe to import oil," the Wall Street Journal reports. Already, "Europe's race to stock up on oil from other producers has driven the price of high-quality crudes produced from West Africa to Azerbaijan to levels not seen for years." 

Dollars and sense: The sanctions could provide an opening for new diesel sales from the U.S., India, and the Middle East, since more cars run on diesel in Europe than the U.S., according to the Journal. They could also hurt Russian efforts to transport its oil abroad, since the new EU measures include a ban on insuring Russian vessels by EU companies. CNBC has a bit more on what's known so far. 

Russian reax: "They hate us all! The basis for these decisions is hatred for Russia, for Russians and for all its inhabitants," Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram.

Next up for the EU: Figuring out how to get an alleged 22 million tons of Ukrainian grain out to markets. It remains stuck in bins and on hoppers because of Russia's naval blockade of the Black Sea. Establishing some kind of reconstruction financing for Ukraine is also on the EU's docket, as well as finding ways to pivot toward renewable energy sources. 

Milley: "Right now, the sea lanes are blocked by mines and the Russian navy," America's top military officer, Joint Chiefs Chairman Army Gen. Mark Milley, said Tuesday in London. "In order to open up those sea lanes would require a very significant military effort" and "would be a high-risk military operation." Defense News has more, while traveling with Milley in the UK.

Related reading: 

 
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Read More >>

 
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