FP's Amelia - AUGUST 3, 2026 - The heated European debate on immigration - Ending the Iran war - Middle powers analyses and more

AUGUST 3, 2026  |  VIEW IN BROWSER  |  DOWNLOAD THE APP Tyler Comrie Illustration for Foreign Policy Images of tens of thousands of migrants crossing from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta last week are sure to shape the heated European debate on immigration. The causes of last week’s sudden surge are still being ascertained—and most of the migrants have since returned—but the episode has shined a spotlight on Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchéz’s pro-immigration policies, which have sparked a trend across the continent. Elsewhere in Europe, mid-century idealism has given way to a widespread rejection of the rights of asylum-seekers, Linda Kinstler writes. Across the Atlantic, FP’s Julian Zelizer argues that Washington’s approach to Cuban immigrants is one of the most most dramatic pieces of evidence as to how much political attitudes to immigration have changed in the United States. In 1966, Congress passed the Cuban Adjustment Act, which provided special protections for those fleeing Fidel Castro’s regime. Sixty years later, U.S. President Donald Trump’s second administration has rendered Cubans as vulnerable to removal as other noncitizens. Similar dynamics—demographic decline, nationalist sentiment, and a demand for restrictive migration policies—are playing out in Russia. Although the country has become more dependent on foreign labor, its political environment has grown steadily less welcoming to migrants. As a result, Samuel Bendett and Maria Snegovaya of the Center for Strategic and International Studies write, the Kremlin faces a dilemma with no easy solution.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor The stories that define today’s geopolitics. Our Editors’ Picks newsletter delivers the best articles from the day directly to your inbox, Monday through Friday. Get on the list. On Our Radar Ending the Iran war. The latest from Trump on Iran is that he has canceled a potentially massive U.S. military assault. This follows intense lobbying by Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, and it is the second time in two weeks that Trump has pulled back from renewed war. In case he is looking to achieve a more comprehensive diplomatic solution, the Atlantic Council’s Allison Minor and Nate Swanson offer a step-by-step guide. Middle power math. Two recent analyses chart different paths for the world’s middle powers. The fact is that many middle powers, and the right-wing populists that run them, find Trump’s vision for the world more compelling than Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s, write Christopher S. Chivvis, Milan Vaishnav, and Rohan Mukherjee. Galip Dalay, meanwhile, argues that middle powers can change the global order’s security-centric agenda—but they must work together and overcome ideology to do so. French wildfires. After weeks of intense battle that forced the evacuation of 224,000 people, France’s devastating fires are now “under control,” says French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. The country’s next presidential election is more ominous in the glow of its latest environmental disaster, writes Robert Zaretsky, who suggests that the time-tested institutions and constitution of the Fifth Republic might burn, as well. FP COLLECTIONS Energy After the Shock New from FP! The U.S. war on Iran has turned energy and other commodities into geopolitical levers. Foreign Policy’s latest collection breaks down this seismic change in the global energy system. Read the stories online or download them as PDFs for convenient offline reading. EXPLORE THE COLLECTION Exercise Your Mind Thousands of people rallied in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on Tuesday in protest of proposed constitutional changes that could result in what? The removal of some civil rights to combat M23 rebels A restructuring of Congo’s provinces A third presidential term for Félix Tshisekedi The abolition of opposition political parties You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Test your knowledge with more quiz questions.  FP Live The New Rules of Economic Warfare Aug. 4 | 11 a.m. ET What do export controls between Washington and Beijing have in common with the Houthis’ ability to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb? Both represent the embrace of chokepoints as an economic weapon. So, what tools are in this new arsenal? How are they enforced? Edward Fishman deployed these very tools during his time serving in the U.S. Defense, State, and Treasury Departments. In Chokepoints, he argues that the United States built a playbook that is now being used against it. Fishman joins FP Live to unpack what this new economic warfare costs the global economy and U.S. power. Register now and submit your questions ahead of the conversation. Energy After the Shock On Demand Oil prices are once again on the rise—and this time, they may not come down so quickly. With the Strait of Hormuz once again shut down and the Houthis attempting to block Saudi exports through the Red Sea, crude prices seem set to soar. In addition, global reservoirs of crude haven’t been restored, and China may drop its export curbs. Beyond the immediate price shock, how will countries and companies adapt their behavior in the longer term? Daniel Yergin, an economic historian and energy guru, joined FP Live to share his insights. Register now and submit your questions ahead of the conversation. Trending Now The Book That Predicted Pete Hegseth’s Failures ‘On the Psychology of Military Incompetence’ examines the narrow minds of petty men. By Keith Johnson The Wildberries Theory of Russian Defeat After oil refineries and cargo ships, Ukraine is now taking out Russian e-commerce. By Alexey Kovalev Odysseus at the End of Civilization Nolan’s film confronts the betrayal of the West’s own values. By Bret Devereaux The Kremlin’s Easy Money Is Gone Russia still has assets to tap for its war, but the political costs are growing. By Agathe Demarais How to End the Iran War Trump needs to learn the diplomatic art of losing well. By Allison Minor, Nate Swanson From Around FP 🎧 I Serve: The entire first season of I Serve is out now! In all eight episodes, men and women from the U.S. and allied armed forces tell those stories in their own words. From tank battles in the Persian Gulf to helicopter extractions under fire in Vietnam, I Serve goes deep into the defining moments and enduring values of the people who wore the uniform. I Serve is a co-production of Foreign Policy and With Honor. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 🇺🇳 Join FP at the United Nations General Assembly: Each year, FP’s UNGA programming convenes global leaders, thinkers, and decision-makers to tackle shared challenges. As we prepare for UNGA81, explore speakers from previous years and visit our website to learn how you can get involved.  🎧 The Economics of the Odyssey: The biggest movie in the world right now is Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. This week on FP’s hit economics podcast Ones & Tooze, Cam and Adam broke down the economic and philosophical underpinnings of the story. Watch on YouTube or listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Answer: C. In pursuit of Congo’s mineral wealth, the Trump administration has remained silent on Tshisekedi’s attempts to secure a third term, FP’s Christina Lu reported in June.