CT (Critical Threats) - Iran Update, MArch 14,2026 - Laterst developments in Iran war

 

Iran Update, March 14, 2026

Key Takeaways: Israeli and US officials told Axios on March 13 that Israel is planning to “significantly expand” its ground campaign in Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River. A senior Israeli official said that Israel’s objectives are to “take over territory, push Hezbollah’s forces north and away from the border, and dismantle [Hezbollah’s] military positions and weapons depots in [southern Lebanese] villages.” Neither Iran nor the United States is prepared to hold discussions to reach a ceasefire despite mediation efforts by Oman and Egypt, according to Iranian, regional, and White House officials speaking to Reuters on March 14. Three sources familiar with the efforts told Reuters that the Trump administration rejected efforts by Middle Eastern allies, including Oman and Egypt, to start diplomatic talks to end the war with Iran. The United States struck Iranian military infrastructure on Kharg Island in Bushehr Province on March 13, in part to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that US forces conducted large-scale precision strikes targeting Kharg Island, destroying naval mine storage facilities, missile storage facilities, and other military sites. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on March 14 that it has not observed any confirmed vessel attacks in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman in the past 48 hours. UKMTO warned that the threat environment in these areas remains critical, however. Hezbollah claimed 43 attacks targeting Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, as well as northern Israeli towns, between 3:00 PM ET on March 13 and 3:00 PM ET on March 14. This marks the highest number of attacks that Hezbollah has claimed in a 24-hour period since the start of the war.

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Israeli and US officials told Axios on March 13 that Israel is planning to “significantly expand” its ground campaign in Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River. A senior Israeli official said that Israel’s objectives are to “take over territory, push Hezbollah’s forces north and away from the border, and dismantle [Hezbollah’s] military positions and weapons depots in [southern Lebanese] villages.” Israeli and US officials said that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) seeks to seize “the entire area” south of the Litani River in order to dismantle Hezbollah military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. US and Israeli officials said that the United States supports the proposed Israeli operation to disarm Hezbollah. The United States has reportedly asked Israel to not target the Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport and other Lebanese state infrastructure, however. US officials said that Israel agreed to not target the Beirut airport and would consult with the United States on a “case-by-case basis” about striking other Lebanese state infrastructure. Israeli media reported on March 12 that the Israeli operation in Lebanon “will begin within a week.” Israeli officials told Israeli media on March 12 that Israeli operations could continue in Lebanon for months even if the conflict with Iran ends soon. The IDF continues to deploy additional forces to northern Israel to support operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The IDF reported that the IDF Northern Command, which commands IDF units operating on the Israel-Lebanon border, will receive additional forces “during the coming week.” IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir ordered the deployment of additional forces to the Northern Command on March 12. Zamir stated on March 13 that the reinforcements will include a division, two brigades, and multiple engineering battalions. These reinforcements will supplement the three IDF divisions that have been deployed on the Israel-Lebanon border since the start of the war. Israeli media reported on March 14 that Israeli tank transporters and armored personnel carriers are moving toward the Israel-Lebanon border as part of preparations for a potential “large-scale” IDF ground maneuver. Israeli and Lebanese officials are reportedly preparing to hold direct talks mediated by the United States “in the coming days.” Two sources familiar with the matter told Israeli media that Israeli and Lebanese delegations are expected to meet for direct talks in either Paris or Cyprus “in the coming days.” Senior US and Israeli officials told Axios and Israeli media on March 14 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tasked former Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer with the “Lebanese file” and leading initial Israeli negotiations with the Lebanese government. An unspecified Lebanese official told Qatari media on March 14 that the Lebanese government is preparing to form a negotiating delegation comprised of Lebanese diplomats to discuss de-escalation with Israel. The Lebanese official said that Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri agreed to not include a Hezbollah or Amal Movement representative in the delegation. The Lebanese official said that the Lebanese government has called for Israel and Lebanon to reimplement the November 2024 ceasefire agreement before negotiating further. US mediation efforts will reportedly be led by either US Senior Adviser for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos or Jared Kushner. Five sources “with knowledge of the matter” told Axios on March 9 that the Lebanese government proposed immediate direct negotiations with Israel under US auspices to reach a peace agreement. An unspecified senior Israeli official told Israeli media on March 11 that Israel had begun to hold indirect talks with the Lebanese government. Israel reportedly demanded that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) act against Hezbollah immediately.   France has reportedly proposed a peace plan between Israel and Lebanon that would include Lebanon normalizing relations with Israel. Three sources familiar with the details of the plan told Axios on March 14 that the French government has drafted an Israel-Lebanon peace plan proposal. The proposal includes multiple stages of negotiations that would be mediated by both the United States and France. The negotiations would reportedly begin with negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats before advancing to talks between Israeli and Lebanese political leaders. The French peace plan proposal includes the following stages: Stage 1: Lebanon and Israel initiate negotiations and agree to a “political declaration” within one month. The sources stated that Lebanon would agree to respect Israeli sovereignty and territorial integrity as part of the “political declaration.” The declaration would also reportedly include Lebanon’s “initial recognition of Israel.” The Lebanese government would additionally commit to preventing any attacks against Israel from Lebanese territory and disarming Hezbollah. Israel and Lebanon would affirm their commitment to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War, and the November 2024 ceasefire agreement. Stage 2: The LAF would redeploy forces south of the Litani River as the IDF withdraws from Lebanese territory that it has seized in the current conflict. Israel and Lebanon would also commit to engaging through the US-led ceasefire monitoring committee to address ceasefire violations during this period. UNIFIL peacekeepers would reportedly verify that the LAF was sufficiently disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani River, while an unspecified UNSC-mandated ”coalition of countries” would oversee Hezbollah’s disarmament throughout the rest of Lebanon. Stage 3: Lebanon would be required to sign a permanent non-aggression agreement with Israel within two months of signing the “political declaration” in stage one. The non-aggression agreement would formally end the state of war between Israel and Lebanon that has existed between the two countries since 1948. Stage 4: Israel would withdraw its forces from the five positions in Lebanon that the IDF has occupied since February 2025 over an unspecified time period. Lebanon would also be expected to complete negotiations with Israel and Syria to demarcate Lebanon’s borders by the end of 2026. French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 14 that he recently spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss efforts to halt the conflict in Lebanon. Macron said that Aoun, Berri, and Salam “indicated willingness” to engage in direct talks with Israel. Macron also said that France is willing to host the Israel-Lebanon talks in Paris.   Neither Iran nor the United States is prepared to hold discussions to reach a ceasefire despite mediation efforts by Oman and Egypt, according to Iranian, regional, and White House officials speaking to Reuters on March 14. Three sources familiar with the efforts told Reuters that the Trump administration rejected efforts by Middle Eastern allies, including Oman and Egypt, to start diplomatic talks to end the war with Iran.  Two senior Iranian officials said that Iran rejected the possibility of a ceasefire until the United States and Israel stop striking Iran and meet Iranian demands, which reportedly include compensation. A third Iranian source stated that previous diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States are “irrelevant now.”  The source added that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials “strongly believe that if they lose control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will lose the war.” A senior White House official told Reuters that President Donald Trump is “not interested in [diplomatic talks] right now.”