ISPI (Italian Institute for International Political Studies) 17 Jul 2025 Testing Syria’s Transition as Sectarian Divides and Regional Tensions Resurface

 ISPI (Italian Institute for International Political Studies)

17 Jul 2025

Testing Syria’s Transition as Sectarian Divides and Regional Tensions Resurface 

Med This Week

Med this Week Middle East and North Africa

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the threats to national unity facing Syria’s new government in the wake of sectarian violence and Israeli attacks. 

In recent days, Syria has witnessed a renewed surge in violence, now further intensified by Israel’s military intervention. What began as an internal crisis – between Sunni Bedouins and the Druze community in the southern region of Suwayda, leaving over 250 people dead in just four days – has now assumed an international dimension. Following the attack by Israeli forces against Syrian government troops in Suwayda in proclaimed defence of the Druze community, yesterday Israel launched airstrikes on Damascus, targeting the Ministry of Defence and areas near the Presidential Palace (3 dead and 34 injured). This escalation underscores the fragility of Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s transitional government and its limited capacity to manage Syria’s complex ethno-religious landscape and the Israel Syria troubled relations. Despite efforts to rebuild national unity through Al-Sharaa’s diplomatic outreach, economic recovery initiatives, and a push for foreign investment, Syria remains deeply entangled in its old fault lines. Sectarian violence and security threats consistently permeate the country. In March, the Alawite minority was targeted in mass killings, and in June, a Daesh deadly attack struck the Mar Elias church, killing dozens of Christians. Although Israel has expanded its control over parts of the occupied Golan Heights and conducted scattered attacks against military sites throughout the country since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, recent months have seen Syria and Israel be moving toward a landmark rapprochement, thanks to US President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Indeed, the United States is now urging for peace, after investing significant diplomatic capital in reintegrating Syria into the international community through sanctions relief and the delisting of HTS as a terrorist organisation. As of now, while President Al-Sharaa has claimed that protecting the Druze is a “priority” for his administration, Syrian forces have withdrawn from Suwayda after reaching an agreement with Druze representatives, signalling a temporary de-escalation in the country. However, Israeli Syrian ties are once again under strain due to Israel’s abrupt intervention, threatening the fragile regional balance.  

Experts from the ISPI network discuss on the threats to national unity facing Syria’s new government in the wake of sectarian violence and Israeli attacks. 

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The Syrian crisis undermines Washington’s plans for the country 

“The recent escalation between Israel and Syria was the culmination of clashes that initially broke out at a local level between Sunni Bedouins and the Druze community in Suwayda, but it quickly carried far-reaching international consequences. In recent months, the Trump administration had invested heavily in brokering a historical agreement between Damascus and Jerusalem: an effort aimed at ending a long-standing conflict between the two nations. This included the Trump-Sharaa meeting in the Gulf, lifting harsh US sanctions on Syria, and removing HTS from the list of terrorist organisations. The crisis – possibly triggered by what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called a ‘misunderstanding’ – may have fundamentally undermined Washington’s plan to bring Syria into the Abraham Accords. Even if the US hopes to somehow get the initiative back on track, trust between the parties – especially Damascus’s trust in Israel – may now be irreparably damaged.” 

Francesco Petronella, ISPI 

National unity without discrimination is still a long way off  

“After the start of operations against the current government in Damascus in the Syrian coast, where the Alawite sect is mostly based, and after a Druze sheikh threatened to separate from Damascus in the city of Suwayda, the Syrian regime reacted violently and focused on the idea of Sunni Muslim superiority and victimhood, like it was some kind of competition. It relied on young people belonging to the war generation, who are loyal to a faction rather than to the country. Massacres and violations took place, and although the other side was also responsible, it cannot be held accountable in the same way as the state, which is responsible for enforcing the law and not for following the actions of the opposing faction. Building national unity is a complex process, especially when trying to emerge from decades of systematic fragmentation during the Assad family’s rule. It requires the establishment of the principle of citizenship, participation, and integration into institutions that represent everyone without discrimination. This is not happening today.” 

Salam Kawakibi , Director, CAREP Paris 

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The troubling aspects of the parliamentary nominations (not elections) scheduled for August 

“Parliamentary nominations in Syria are expected by the end of August 2025. One third will be appointed by the president while two thirds will be chosen by electoral committees chosen themselves by the higher committee for the elections formed by presidential decree. Given the absence of direct elections, the process raises significant concerns – particularly regarding representation, inclusion, and the legitimacy of the mandate. Moreover, the repartition of seats between governorates was based on the 2010 census which does not reflect the current repartition of the Syrian people. Inclusion will also be challenging; especially in terms of the participation of women and minority groups. While the higher committee mentioned a minimum quota of 20% of women members of parliament, it is still not clear how they will enforce it. The presidentially appointed one-third of parliamentarians is intended to address these gaps in representation and inclusion, yet questions persist about the transparency and effectiveness of this mechanism.” 

Assaad Al Achi , Coordinator, Syria Resource Group 

Syria’s refugee repatriation depends on reconciliation first 

 

“Short and long-term refugee and IDP (internally displaced person) returns are occurring across Syria, evoking both hope and difficulty. Family reunifications and homecomings offer emotional relief, but large-scale returns remain premature. Services are already overstretched, infrastructure is damaged, and the economy is in tatters—compounded by the slow unwinding of sanctions. Refugees often carry acute conflict experiences, returning to communities with already fragile social dynamics. Without an agreed national reconciliation strategy or transitional justice framework (including housing, land, and property (HLP) issues) reintegration risks deepening tensions. While return is a shared aspiration among many Syrians and the new authorities, sustainable return depends on broader recovery. Patience and planning are needed to ensure that large-scale returns, when they occur, are more likely to be productive and lasting.” 

Emma Beals, Associate Fellow, MEI 

The delisting of HTS as a symbolic shift in the post-‘War on Terror’ era 

“Although all factions from the former Syrian armed opposition – including HTS – were dissolved at the end of January during Syria’s Victory Conference, the US decision to remove HTS from its list of designated FTOs (‘foreign terrorist organizations’) still carried weight, including symbolic weight. It marks a consequential moment in the post-‘War on Terror’ international landscape and may well directly or indirectly influence the future trajectory of other designated armed groups.From an international perspective, the next potential step could be the removal of sanctions on HTS by the UN Security Council. As noted by Aaron Zelin, only a delisting of HTS at the UN level would allow the US Treasury Department to remove (what used to be) HTS or its former leaders from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist list. Beyond considerations at the international level – where the Syrian administration’s efforts have made remarkable advances in the realm of legitimacy – Damascus will also need to increasingly focus on the domestic sphere in the coming period, particularly in the wake of the spiral of violence in Suwayda and its potential ramifications.” 

Silvia Carenzi, PhD, Scuola Normale Superiore & Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies 

Sharaa’s hardline rule risks alienating minorities and derailing Syria’s future 

“Ahmad al-Sharaa must come to terms with Syria’s minority communities, in particular the three compact minorities: the Druze, Alawites and Kurds. He is trying to use force to defeat their demands for a measure of autonomy or a federal system of government. Sharaa’s promulgation of a 5-year interim constitution and formation of a new government which denies the minorities representation and places all authority into the President’s hands, frightens them. So does his mistreatment of the Alawites on the coast and more recently the Druze in the south. The Trump administration has signaled that it is behind Sharaa and rejects federalism. Ambassador Barrack has likened Sharaa to George Washington. But Israel views Sharaa very as a terrorist and demonstrated that it will defy the US and stand up for Syria’s Druze minority. If Sharaa continues to allow his security forces to run roughshod over fellow Syrians, many investors will refuse to gamble on Syria’s stability and future reconstruction process.” 

Joshua Landis, Sandra Mackey Chair and Professor in Middle East Studies, University of Oklahoma 

Edited by Lucia Dall’Asta

israel Syria

 - Introduction

 - The Syrian crisis undermines Washington’s plans for the country 

 - National unity without discrimination is still a long way off  

 - The troubling aspects of the parliamentary nominations (not elections) scheduled for August 

 - Syria’s refugee repatriation depends on reconciliation first  

 - The delisting of HTS as a symbolic shift in the post-‘War on Terror’ era 

 - Sharaa’s hardline rule risks alienating minorities and derailing Syria’s 

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