Turkey on a better foreign policy footing as Trump returns to office December 17, 2024 Gönül Tol

Turkey on a better foreign policy footing as Trump returns to office

December 17, 2024 

Gönül Tol

Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Black Sea Program

When Donald Trump left office in 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was struggling with ahost of domestic and regional challenges. In 2019, his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had lost almost all of the country’s major cities in municipal elections and the Turkish  economy was  facing a number of problems. The Turkish lira had lost more than 40 percent of its value against the dollar and the country’s debt had been downgraded by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. Trump’sdecision to impose doubletariffs on Turkish metal exports to put pressure on Ankara to release a jailedAmerican clergyman had contributed to the country’s economic woes.

Erdoğan was facing problems on the foreign policy front as well. Chief among them wasTurkey’s relations with the United States. Turkey had received the Russian S-400missile-defense system in July 2019, straining ties with its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) partners, particularly the US. Washington was worried about the S-400s’ compatibility with NATO systems and the potential security risks it posed to the F-35 fighter jet program.

Bilateral ties received a further blow when Washington decided to remove Turkey from the F-35program and slapped sanctions on Ankara. Turkey’s military operation against the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia — a key US ally in the fight against ISIS that Ankara considers a terrorist organization — complicated relations even more. At the time,Turkey was also trying to repair its fraught relations with Middle Eastern countries, badlydamaged by its support for Islamists trying to topple regional autocrats.

As Trump prepares to return to the White House in January 2025, Ankara finds itself betterpositioned on the foreign policy front this time around. Turkey has normalized ties with former  regional foes such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine turned Turkey into an important Western partner in efforts to mediate the conflict. There are still problems in Turkey-US ties but the countries have found common ground in places like the Black Sea and Africa. The ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria further strengthens Ankara’s hand on the foreign policy front as Western and Arab countries turn to Turkey to discuss the country’s post-Assad future.

Erdoğan still faces a challenging domestic environment, but Assad’s ouster could offer himopportunities there too. One of the biggest problems he faces at home is Turkey’s 3.6 million Syrian refugees. With Assad gone, many of them may return to Syria and he can tell his constituency that the problem has been solved.

This context may help Turkish-US ties under the second Trump presidency as well. One keyfactor that will affect how relations evolve is whether the incoming American president decides to withdraw troops from Syria. If he does, that will remove one of the thorniest issues in bilateral ties: US cooperation with the YPG. Ankara is then likely to strengthen its relations with the new US administration by committing to the fight against ISIS, curbing Iran’s influence, and playing an active role in ending the war in Ukraine.

Follow: @gonultol