FP (Foreign Policy) - January 3, 2025, 7:15 AM - Will 2025 Be More Peaceful? The incoming U.S. administration could strike a deal on Ukraine—and possibly start talks with Iran and North Korea—but bickering could derail diplomatic efforts.

 It's Debatable

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Will 2025 Be More Peaceful?

The incoming U.S. administration could strike a deal on Ukraine—and possibly start talks with Iran and North Korea—but bickering could derail diplomatic efforts.

By Emma Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Matthew Kroenig, a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

A dove of peace flag is seen during a rally in support of Ukraine, to mark the second year of Russia's military invasion, in Frankfurt, Germany on Feb. 24, 2024.

A dove of peace flag is seen during a rally in support of Ukraine, to mark the second year of Russia's military invasion, in Frankfurt, Germany on Feb. 24, 2024. AFP via Getty Images

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January 3, 2025, 7:15 AM View Comments (0)

Matt Kroenig: Hi Emma! Happy New Year!

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It’s Debatable: The Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford and the Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig debate pressing issues for policymakers.

Emma Ashford: Happy New Year to you, too, Matt. Excited for another peaceful, tranquil year?

MK: Ha! With major wars in Europe and the Middle East, my fond hope is for a more peaceful 2025. And I think there is at least some chance that things will settle down.

In fact, I thought that would be a good topic for this week’s column—our first of the year. What are your predictions for 2025?

EA: I’ve given up predicting. I started college during the Iraq War, graduated during the global financial crisis, and my kids were born during the COVID-19 pandemic. I’ve just come to accept that my adult life is apparently going to be surrounded by utter chaos.

I’m sure there are plenty of things we won’t see coming in 2025; who would have predicted the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria at the start of 2024, for example? But you’re right that 2025 does seem to offer some prospect of resolution—or at least changes—in some of the big conflicts we’re already watching, like Gaza or Ukraine.

Donald Trump hasn’t even taken office yet, but things are already moving on the Ukraine peace talks front.

MK: Well, you are right that there were some big surprises in the past. The biggest for me in 2024 was the smashing of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. I certainly would not have predicted that Assad, Hamas, and Hezbollah would all be decimated by Jan. 1, 2025. There are probably some other surprises in store for us this year.

Let’s start with Ukraine as you suggested. We have a new U.S. president taking office on Jan. 20 who has vowed to end the war in Ukraine. Many like to point out the limits of American power, but it is remarkable the degree to which the U.S. president can still set the global agenda. Just a few weeks ago, the conventional wisdom, following Joe Biden’s guidance, was that the West would fight the war in Ukraine “as long as it takes.” Now, it is taken for granted that they will seek peace negotiations.

I think there is a reasonable chance that the conflict will wind down this year. The new Trump administration is determined to make it happen, and the Western allies and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have already expressed support for this position. Moreover, both the Russians and the Ukrainians are exhausted from three years of fighting. So, it won’t be easy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if peace in Ukraine is a big story in 2025.

EA: It’s rather surprising to me to hear folks, who have all along argued that Russia will never make peace in Ukraine, saying that peace is just around the corner.