Türkiye in a State of Confusion
January 9, 2025
Türkiye’s national agenda over the past decade-and-a-half has offered our people hardly any optimism. In recent months, two items took over all else: The negative impact of our continuing economic downturn on the low-income classes, and Türkiye’s Kurdish issue interlinked with developments in Syria.
The low-income classes’ attention was focused on the minimum wage and pensions, both normally updated at the beginning of the new year according to the annual inflation rate. According to the AKP government, the inflation rate for the year 2024 was 45%. However, according to the Inflation Research Group, (ENAGrup), this was 83.40%. Thus, the minimal increases in minimum wage and pensions led to public protests and endless criticism of the government. Sadly, millions in Türkiye are struggling to make a living and are unhappy, to say the least.
While Turks remained preoccupied with our economic difficulties, the five-decade-long Assad regime was swept away in barely two weeks. Syrians at home rightly celebrated. Syrians abroad, including those in Türkiye, also celebrated but understandably they would not be running home. The world is now waiting to see what kind of a new regime will emerge in Damascus and how external powers will compete to promote their selfish interests.
For a few days, after the HTS offensive, the AKP leadership was silent on the developments in Syria. The only high-level statement came from Foreign Minister Fidan. He said that Türkiye is not involved in the clashes in Syria and is taking the necessary measures to prevent an influx of refugees. Later, however, Ankara proudly declared its role in Assad’s ouster. That Ankara endorsed the anti-Assad offensive became a certainty. How much it was involved in its planning and execution and with whom it partnered remains a question. Israel immediately took advantage of the change and uncertainty in Damascus.
Interestingly, in recent times, Turkish headlines have focused more on Mr. Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, the principal partner of Türkiye’s governing AKP. On October 22, 2024, he surprised everybody by calling on the authorities to allow PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to come to the Turkish parliament, to address the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) group and declare that terror is over. After a few days, President Erdoğan endorsed his remarks without getting into specifics. Since then, a DEM group has met with Abdullah Öcalan and later with the leaders of the political parties. Such meetings are likely to continue. His release from prison seems to be in the cards.
President Erdoğan and Mr. Bahçeli are calling for an end to PKK/YPG terror and the re-energizing of the Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood. However, Assad’s fall seems to have given the Kurds in Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, and Iran an opportunity to raise the stakes for their regional status.
Mr. Bahçeli, in an address to his party’s parliamentary group on December 3, after attacking the YPG and its external supporters, said that Türkiye fully respects Syria’s political and territorial integrity; however, the Syrian Arab Republic squeezed between Latakia and Damascus, with two-thirds of its territory out of its control is now a country on the respiratory device; that Assad has refused the hand extended by Türkiye but it is still not too late for him to enter into dialogue with Ankara without preconditions and go for the normalization of relations in the interest of his and his country’s interest; that Türkiye has no ambitions over the territory of other countries; that Syria belongs to the Syrians; Syria must adopt a constitutional system of democracy. But then, he went on to say:
“We sincerely wish Aleppo to find peace and calm.
“In line with our political morals, we must also declare before our nation that there is not a single Turkish patriot whose heart would not start beating when he hears the word “Aleppo”.
“Because Aleppo is Turkish and Muslim.”
Because of what Mr. Bahçeli said about Aleppo, it was a relief to hear President Erdoğan later say that Türkiye does not have eyes on even one single pebble of any country, let alone their land, and that all Türkiye wishes for Syria is only the peace, stability, and calm it has longed for over the past thirteen years.
Later, the following from Mr. Trump’s January 7, press conference, particularly his reference to “mutual respect between President Erdoğan and himself, attracted much attention in the pro-AKP media.
“Question: Good afternoon, Mr. President. It’s good to see you again. Two questions about Syria and the ongoing war in Gaza. About Syria, the Pentagon disclosed last month that the US has some 2,000 troops in Syria. That’s almost double the number. Initially, we were told of 900. Will you keep that troop capacity the same upon taking office?
“Donald Trump: Well, I won’t tell you that because it’s part of a military strategy, but I will say it was Turkey. Turkey has been after that country in different names and different forms and shapes for 2,000 years. Those people that went in are from Turkey. And President Erdogan is a friend of mine. He’s a guy I like, respect.
“I think he respects me also. He’s the one that didn’t go after certain people after I requested that he not. You know who I’m talking about, the Kurds. I don’t know how long that’s going to — because they’re natural enemies. They hate each other, but he didn’t do that yet and he didn’t do it in the past also.
“He started and I said, please don’t do that, and he didn’t do it. But if you look at what happened with Syria, Russia was weakened. Iran was weakened and he’s a very smart guy and he sent his people in there through different forms and different names. And they went in and they took over, and that’s the way it is.
Question: I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to interrupt you. Do you have concerns about HTS taking control [Inaudible]?
By the way, I have the envoy here. Is that in the back, standing with my son, Eric, is Steve Witkoff, who’s just got back from the Middle East and he’s done a fantastic job. He’s a great dealmaker. I said what we need there is a dealmaker because nobody makes a deal. We have people that understand where the rivers are and where the metes and bounds are, but they can’t talk…” [i]
The foregoing shows that Ankara and President-elect Trump are already engaged in a dialogue on the future of Syria and the Middle East. The US establishment wishes to overcome Türkiye’s opposition to an enhanced status for the YPG. Together with Israel, it wishes to meet, to the maximum extent possible, the regional aspirations of the Kurds. The question is what the US establishment would offer Ankara in return. There is much speculation in Türkiye about future arrangements because the roadmap to a solution and its basic elements remain a mystery. Many in the opposition also see a domestic political dimension in a prospective deal, the perpetuation of the AKP’s grip on power.
What worries me more than our economic troubles and the developments in Syria are the increasing references by the AKP leadership and their partners to the “New Turkish Century”, because this appears to signal a break with the first century of the Republic characterized by Atatürk reforms, secularism, enlightened education, modernity and, despite its roller-coaster pattern, Turkish democracy.
During the first hundred years of the Turkish Republic, prominent Western leaders praised Atatürk, the eternal leader of the Turkish nation on numerous occasions. But the tragedy was that the leading Western powers’ innermost feelings were only frustration with his achievements because their plan at the end of the First World War was to confine Türkiye to a small stretch of territory in central Anatolia, making it a small state continuing with its decadent Ottoman traditions and irreversibly part of the Islamist Middle East.
Atatürk upended their plans. Despite its Ottoman past, the newly established Republic of Türkiye inspired Arab independence movements. It inspired secularism in Arab countries that ended dynastic rule. Ankara maintained good relations with the West, became a member of NATO, and aspired to join the EU, but never became the West’s “second fiddle”. All this explains why President Biden remained an adversary of Türkiye throughout his political career.
On January 6, in a speech to French ambassadors, President Macron said France would not abandon “freedom fighters, like the Kurds” who are fighting extremist groups in Syria.[ii] In December, French Foreign Minister Barrot had called on Syria’s new rulers to reach a settlement with Kurdish authorities in the northeast, who fear for the de facto autonomy their administration has enjoyed since early in the civil war. “A political solution must be reached with France’s allies, the Kurds, so that they are fully integrated into this political process that is beginning today,” Barrot said after meeting civil society representatives in Damascus.[iii]
Does Paris consider Türkiye an “ally” today? I doubt it.
Against President Macron’s demanding statements over Syria, it is worth remembering that on December 31, 2024, Ivory Coast announced that French troops would leave the country after a decades-long military presence. It was the latest African nation to downscale military ties with its former colonial power. Several West African nations — including coup-hit Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — have recently asked the French to leave. Most recently, Senegal and Chad did the same. Chad was considered France’s most stable and loyal partner in Africa.[iv] In other words, it is high time to put colonial instincts behind for good.
None of the foregoing suggests that Türkiye’s political establishment, including the opposition, should avoid looking for arrangements to enhance the country’s domestic peace and stability through dialogue with Türkiye’s Kurds. On the contrary, they should engage in such an effort in harmony, genuine and open dialogue, and with the involvement of the entire parliament beyond leaders. Most importantly, all the parties to such a dialogue should not forget that had Türkiye’s AKP remained on the democratic path with a stable economy and independent judiciary, today we would have been at a much better point in our history.
[i] https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-mar-a-lago-january-7-2025/
[ii] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/01/06/macron-urges-ukraine-for-realistic-expectations-warns-about-iran-in-middle-east_6736752_7.html
[iii] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250103-french-fm-visits-syria-with-german-counterpart-to-promote-peaceful-transition
[iv] https://www.voanews.com/a/ivory-coast-asks-french-troops-to-leave-latest-african-country-to-do-so/7920403.html
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