Editors' Picks from the Atlantic Council This week's edition brought to you by Daniel Malloy, Managing Editor

 

Editors' Picks from the Atlantic Council

This week's edition brought to you by Daniel Malloy, Managing Editor

NOVEMBER 2, 2024 | Greetings from purple America. Ahead of Tuesday’s elections, the airwaves, mailboxes, and doorsteps here in suburban Raleigh, North Carolina, are saturated with politics. The national candidates and their surrogates linger just long enough to learn some of the finer points of barbecue, sweet tea, and college basketball. Unfortunately, at least for my purposes, all the campaign rhetoric is largely devoid of real discussion about the United States’ place in an increasingly volatile world. But that’s where our team at the Atlantic Council comes in. We’ve been delivering analysis and convenings that spotlight the challenges awaiting the next administration. This week’s editors’ picks do what attack ads do not—illuminate the global stakes ahead.

Climate, changed. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump present a “stark choice” on energy and climate, write our energy experts Andrea Clabaugh and David Goldwyn, who previously served as the US State Department’s coordinator for international energy affairs. Trump would push for further increases of fossil-fuel production, while Harris would attempt to expand on the major clean-energy investments in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). But both would face constraints from Congress and the courts in implementing their plans, David and Andrea write, in a nuanced look at the next four years. Of note: Trump and a Republican Congress would probably not be able to kill the IRA, but they could change it dramatically. Dive into the details here.

Win-win. If demography is destiny, Africa’s fortunes are bright, with one in four people on the planet projected to be African by 2050. And Trump is likely to “unleash as much of that youthful energy as possible” if he wins the presidency again by streamlining regulations and encouraging business development and trade with Africa—particularly as tensions with China rise, writes former Republican Congressman Vin Weber. What about Harris? If she wins, expect her to build on the Biden administration’s approach by deepening economic ties with Africa, with a new focus on battling corruption and backing human rights, writes Benjamin Mossberg, who previously worked on Africa policy in the US Treasury Department. Either way, Africa looks like a winner. Read Vin’s take on Trump and Ben’s on Harris.

Measuring the meddlers. The world is watching Tuesday’s results closely, and some countries are doing more than watching. Our Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) is logging all of the (publicly known) malign influence efforts—everything from hacking to spreading disinformation and negative narratives—by Russia, China, Iran, and other countries in this handy tracker. This week, the DFRLab’s Meredith Furbish also took a closer look at how Russia is hyping fears of voter fraud. “Synergy between English-language conspiracy outlets, Russian propaganda for English-speaking audiences, and Russian-language pro-Kremlin media continues to fuel election disinformation,” she concludes. Dive into the tracker and read Meredith’s case study here.

Assessing the “axis.” Congressman Mike Turner, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, joined us this week for the latest in a series of Atlantic Council Front Page events with leaders from both parties on the election’s global consequences—and what Turner termed the “must-dos” for the next administration. Top of mind for Turner was what he called the “emerging axis of evil” of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, particularly given the recent news that North Korea has sent some ten thousand troops to Russia to fight Ukraine. Turner called on NATO and the United States to “consider attacking directly North Korean troops that are in Ukraine” to send a message that this collaboration should not be tolerated. Read more of what he had to say.

Makeover in the Middle East. One foreign policy issue that is breaking through on the campaign trail is the awful humanitarian situation in Gaza. This week, Israel banned communication with the United Nations Refugee Works Agency (UNRWA) over the agency’s ties to Hamas. Amid all the heated debate over the action, Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky, an Israeli national security consultant, and Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, offer some straightforward—if difficult—solutions to reform UNRWA so it can serve Palestinians without threatening Israel’s security. The plan starts with more international oversight. Read Michal and Jonathan’s recommendations here.