Council on Foreign Relations Daily News Brief February 29, 2024 Putin Says Western Troops in Ukraine Could Prompt Nuclear War and more

 

Daily News Brief February 29, 2024

Top of the Agenda Putin Says Western Troops in Ukraine Could Prompt Nuclear War In his annual state of the nation address today, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened (CNN) to launch nuclear weapons if Western countries send troops into Ukraine. He referenced French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on Monday that such a Western troop deployment “cannot be ruled out.” Current Western planning around the war in Ukraine “threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons,” Putin said. Some Western officials distanced themselves (NYT) from the prospect of such a troop deployment immediately after Macron’s comments.    Putin’s nuclear weapons threat took up the first few moments of a speech that also focused on economic issues and a roadmap for another six years in office ahead of elections scheduled for next month. He appears certain to be reelected, as most opposition and dissent have been quelled (FT).

Analysis “[Putin] hopes by escalating threats, he can instill restraint or hesitation in Western leaders making decisions on how to support Ukraine,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ William Alberque tells the Financial Times. “The Kremlin could be hoping to outlast U.S. and Western support for Ukraine, which appears less steadfast than once assumed, and to relieve internal pressure by presenting the war as turning its way. Yet domestic tensions are unlikely to disappear. The Russian economy will remain under strain, which will make tensions and elite power struggles more probable,” CFR expert Liana Fix and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Maria Snegovaya write in this CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum.

Pacific Rim U.S. Commerce Department Opens Investigation Into Chinese Electric Vehicles U.S. President Joe Biden said internet-connected electric vehicles (EVs) from China could present (NYT) security risks as they could be used to send sensitive data to Beijing. The probe could result in new commercial restrictions on cars using software from the country. Asia: The Asian Development Bank plans to devote 55 percent of its financing toward climate projects by 2030, up from less than 40 percent now, a bank director told Nikkei.

South and Central Asia India, South Africa Object to Investment Deal at World Trade Organization Talks The two countries lodged (Reuters) an objection to a deal backed by some 125 countries that aims to simplify foreign direct investment for development projects in lower-income countries. Consensus is required for the agreement to pass. Disagreements at the meeting have underscored (Politico) the body’s ability to manage global trade.  India: The government is carrying out the second phase of auctioning mining permits for minerals it has deemed critical and strategic, India’s information agency announced yesterday. A previous auction in November sold permits for twenty mining areas. India is reliant on coal and says the auctions are part of (Reuters) its clean energy push.

Middle East and North Africa Gaza Health Ministry Reports Over Thirty Thousand People Have Died in Enclave Since October 7 The health ministry, which is run by Palestinian militant group Hamas, does not distinguish between fighters and civilians in its death count. An article in the British medical journal The Lancet looking at the first weeks of mortality reports found the deaths were among population groups “that are likely to be largely civilian.” The new milestone suggests around one of every seventy-three Palestinians in the Gaza Strip has been killed (NYT).   Palestinian territories/Russia: Russia invited (CNN) all Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, to a meeting in Moscow today to discuss governance reform in the Palestinian territories. Palestinian Authority Foreign Affairs Minister Riyadh al-Maliki said yesterday that he did not expect (Al Jazeera) “miracles” from today’s meeting.   This Backgrounder by CFR’s Kali Robinson explains who governs the Palestinians.

Sub-Saharan Africa Ghana’s Legislature Passes Bill Imposing Jail Terms for Those Who Identify as LGBTQ+ People identifying as gay could be sentenced to (NYT) three years in jail, while those found to be organizing LGBTQ+ advocacy efforts could be sentenced to five years under the bill passed yesterday. Amnesty International called it one of the harshest such measures on the African continent. It would enter into effect if President Nana Akufo-Addo signs it into law.   This article by CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo and Kali Robinson looks at Africa’s struggle toward inclusive LGBTQ+ laws. Chad: The government said opposition party members attacked (BBC) a state facility in the capital, N’Djamena, yesterday, killing several people, while opposition officials said they had come under attack. Internet outages were also reported in the country. The attack came the day after the government announced a presidential election date of May 6.

Europe Pro-Russian Separatists in Moldova Ask Moscow for Support Politicians in the breakaway region of Transnistria called (NYT) asked yesterday for Russia’s protection to guard them from unspecified pressure from Moldova. While the request sparked fears of Russian intervention in the region, Transnistrian officials stopped short of calling for Russian annexation and also asked for assistance from the European Parliament, the Red Cross, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Americas Caribbean Leaders: Haiti Agreed to Hold Elections by Mid-2025 Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry agreed (AP) to the election timeline at a meeting of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), which issued a joint announcement on the matter yesterday. The statement said that all Haitian stakeholders will need to make concessions to allow democracy to be restored in the country. Haiti currently has no elected officials in power.    Colombia: Authorities in Colombia temporarily closed (NYT) the Darién jungle border with Panama to migration following the arrest of two boat captains that move migrants northward.    This photo essay by CFR’s Sabine Baumgartner and Diana Roy documents the dangerous journey to cross the Darién Gap.

United States Biden, Trump Make Separate Visits to Southern U.S. Border President Biden and former President Donald Trump are using (NPR) their visits to Texas today to highlight their immigration policies ahead of November’s presidential election in which each is leading the nomination race for their party. Biden is set to meet with law enforcement and local leaders in the town of Brownsville and underscore House Republican blockage of a border bill. Trump will visit Eagle Pass and is expected to call for tighter restrictions on migration.

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