NIKKEI ASIA OPINION Modi needs more than personal clout to salvage the G20 summit New Delhi summit communique highly unlikely due to Ukraine war divisions Tristen Naylor August 30, 2023 17:00 JST

 NIKKEI  ASIA

OPINION

Modi needs more than personal clout to salvage the G20 summit

New Delhi summit communique highly unlikely due to Ukraine war divisions

Tristen Naylor

August 30, 2023 17:00 JST

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last year told Russian President Vladimir Putin that "this is not the era for war" but also declared the two countries' friendship to be "unbreakable."

Tristen Naylor is an assistant professor of politics and history at the University of Cambridge and the author of "Social Closure and International Society: Status Groups from the Family of Civilised Nations to the G20."

In the game of global diplomacy, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been a man in demand by every team.

Over the last year, world leaders have stepped up their courting of Modi, seeking to win the huge geopolitical prize of pulling his steadfastly neutral nation into their own orbit. India is seen as a potentially decisive factor on matters ranging from reversing Russia's invasion of Ukraine to containing Chinese expansionism.

Against this backdrop, Modi next week will play host to the Group of 20 leaders' summit. Under the long shadow of Russia's brutal offensive, India will face a daunting challenge to forge a workable consensus across a wide spectrum of interests. It appears almost impossible at this point that the gathered leaders will unanimously agree on a concluding communique.

This deficiency reflects a contradiction at the heart of Indian diplomacy right now, with a great deal of hype bumping into the Gordian knot of geopolitical reality. Should no communique emerge, it would mark the first time in the club's history that a summit failed to produce an agreed final statement.

This would be a major blow for Modi, who hoped to use the summit to not only cement India's place at the world's top table but also to demonstrate a capacity to lead it. The absence of a final communique would also send a strong signal that geopolitical divisions are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

As the host of last year's G20 summit, Indonesia faced a similar challenge as its planned program was largely derailed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While President Joko Widodo managed to lead the group to a final agreement, it did not come easy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the summit, sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in his place. Lavrov left the summit early, just before Russia launched missile strikes on several Ukrainian cities, prompting an emergency meeting of Group of Seven leaders on the sidelines of the G20 meeting. More obfuscating and tactical diplomacy from the Russian delegation can be expected this year too.

India's position as G20 chair is complicated by the ambiguous position that Modi himself has taken with respect to Ukraine and Russia. While Modi told Putin publicly last September that "this is not the era for war," he has also declared India's friendship with Russia to be "unbreakable."

India continues to buy record amounts of Russian oil on the cheap, helping to buoy the Kremlin's coffers and keep its war machine running. Modi's stance might make for expedient politics at home, but it puts him at odds with his democratic peers.

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman speaks after the G20 finance ministers' meeting on July 18: G20 ministers have so far failed to find a way to skirt around the Ukraine war.   © Reuters

To make matters worse, the warning lights on India's G20 presidency have flashed after every preparatory meeting for the leader's summit. Russia and China have consistently dissociated themselves from any mention of the Ukraine war in working group documents. Major preparatory meetings, including the pivotal gathering of G20 finance ministers, have ended in deadlock.

With G20 ministers and senior diplomats having so far failed to find a way to skirt around the war, leaving their national leaders without the joint statements upon which they would usually base their summit discussions, it is hard to see how Modi will reach a breakthrough at the gathering in New Delhi.

This is no surprise given that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has tested the very core of the post-World War II international rules-based order. But given that the war has precipitated multiple economic crises -- including spurring global food insecurity and sending energy prices soaring, with both impacts driving runaway inflation -- it is reasonable to hope the world's top economic coordinating forum might have something to contribute.

The G20's raison d'etre is, of course, to address economic turmoil, and it is fair to expect some headway in this aim. Yet the war's role in the New Delhi summit will doubtless reveal the limits of the G20 as a committee capable of coordinated action.

While the G20 successfully responded to the 2008 global financial crisis, that was because it faced a challenge that was economic in both its origins and the remedies required. War, however, is political in origin and thus requires a political remedy.

Up against this reality, India's hands are effectively tied, though Modi is not helped by an underpowered diplomatic service.

In many ways, India is still playing catch-up in diplomatic prowess. Many rankings that score countries on diplomatic capability, soft power or nation brand show India punching below its weight. The Singapore-based Chandler Institute of Governance ranks India 48th for global influence and reputation in its Chandler Good Government Index. The Anholt-Ipsos Nation Brand Index and the Soft Power 30 compiled by Facebook, Portland Communications and polling company ComRes, back this up.

If Modi is able to defy the odds and forge a consensus, it will be a major diplomatic win for a country in its ascendancy. Hopes in India are high for the summit, with expectations that it will confirm the country's status as a major power in the emerging multipolar order. Domestically, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will be hoping the summit validates Modi's unrivaled position as India's leader ahead of national elections next year.

Such ambitions, however, appear be running ahead of reality. In such a moment of geopolitical crisis, regardless of India's impressive growth and modernization, and the scale of Modi's popularity, there is still a ways to go for the country to achieve real diplomatic heft on the world stage.