ISPI (Italian Institute for International Political Studies) LIBYA AND MOROCCO: WHAT’S NEXT? - Sept. 29, 2023

ISPI (Italian Institute)

LIBYA AND MOROCCO: WHAT’S NEXT?

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today we shed light on the consequences of the natural disasters that recently hit Libya and Morocco.

In early September, in the span of a couple of days, Morocco and Libya were hit by two natural disasters, the devastating aftermath of which both countries are still grappling with. The earthquake that struck Morocco on September 8 resulted in a death toll of 3,000, with thousands more injured and potential implications for the country’s economy, including its important tourism sector. In the days after the earthquake, the Moroccan government faced criticisms for its decision to decline assistance from several countries, a choice that many analysts believed to be politically motivated. Similar doubts regarding the management of foreign aid arose in Libya following the devastating flood that – coupled with the collapse of two dams - destroyed part of the eastern city of Derna on September 10, killing approximately 11,000. Protests targeting widespread corruption and mismanagement of public resources erupted in the city soon after the disaster. Since then, allegations have continued to mount, particularly against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who has been accused of exploiting international aid for personal political gain. These accusations have cast an additional shadow over this disaster, highlighting once again the steep cost of Libya’s ongoing political deadlock. Experts from the ISPI network discuss the consequences of the natural disasters that recently hit Libya and Morocco.

International attention and foreign aid might not last forever

“Contrary to fears, humanitarian aid is arriving from abroad to Derna and international rescue teams have hit the ground running. Assistance is also arriving from across Libya, offered up by supporters of both administrations, which have worked well to get supplies where they need to go. As for foreign donors, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of which have for years supported the eastern-based LNA, were especially timely and generous with their assistance. But other countries have stepped up as well, defying traditional geopolitical boundaries. Within a day from the flood, Türkiye and Italy – which have been supporting for long the Tripoli-based government - flew in the first members of their respective search-and-rescue teams and equipment and sent shiploads of supplies. The arrival of help from outside is unquestionably good news. However, I worry that as time passes, international attention to the city will wane.” Claudia Gazzini, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group

The flood could be a political jackpot for the Haftar family

“In Libya, the devastating flood that struck Derna on September 11 has sparked public outrage against public authorities. The death toll reportedly surpassed 11,000 and according to the United Nations adequate early warning systems could have averted most deaths. Khalifa Haftar’s forces, which control eastern Libya, are cracking down on protests and arresting critics. Haftar seems intent on using disaster relief efforts to consolidate power, having named his 32-year-old son Saddam as head of emergency operations, despite his lack of experience in relief work. Chatham House analyst Tim Eaton also suggested that Haftar might attempt to access national and international aid resources for personal gain. While the impact of these developments on Libya’s stability remains uncertain, it’s noteworthy that Haftar visited Moscow earlier this week to bolster bilateral ties with Russia.”   Federico Manfredi Firmian, Associate Research Fellow, ISPI; Lecturer, Sciences Po Paris

How the flood impacted Libya’s political deadlock

“The Derna cataclysm has deepened Libya’s political deadlock, highlighting the lack of democracy in the country. The event disrupted the UN's already fragile plan to hold elections in 2024. It also muted ongoing talks about the possibility of replacing the GNU with a small caretaker government before any elections. In the east, as the Haftar family tampered with international aid for Derna and carried out a harsh crackdown against the disaster-stricken survivors, not a single country uttered a word. Field Marshal Haftar was congratulated for his noble behaviour in the face of adversity. Regarding reconstruction, most foreign states are unlikely to donate money to Benghazi directly. Derna-related funds will probably have to be funnelled through Tripoli. In this context, the existing semi-entente between the Haftar and Dbeibeh families will likely go on.” Jalel Harchaoui, Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

The earthquake will exacerbate inequalities in Morocco

“The earthquake that hit Morocco on September the 8th with its epicentre in the High Atlas Mountains has killed more than 3,000 people and injured more than 5,600. While initial media coverage focused on the city of Marrakech, the rural province of Al-Haouz was by far the worst-hit area. In the aftermath of the earthquake, the mountainous nature of this province hindered rescue efforts - a condition that is also likely to impact the reconstruction process. Fears that the earthquake could completely halt the recovery of tourism after the COVID-19 pandemics seem to be less concrete than expected, at least in Marrakech and its surroundings. Still, this natural disaster will only worsen inequalities in the country. The worst-affected areas were suffering already from high poverty rates, and, as such, will seriously need extra support from the state. It remains to be seen if the special fund created after the earthquake will be enough to target this emergency.” Lorena Stella Martini, ECFR

The earthquake: an x-ray of power relations in Morocco

"The earthquake was a revealing x-ray of how power is exercised in Morocco. First of all, King Mohamed VI was out of the country and took 19 hours to return. The government and various public authorities remained silent until the monarch's return to Rabat, highlighting the governance problem posed by the King’s frequent absences. For instance, the head of government, Aziz Akchnnouch, offered his condolences only 24 hours after the disaster, much later than many foreign dignitaries. The only exception is probably the General Command, which announced rather quickly the mobilisation of the army. Finally, Morocco made the aid offered a political issue: its refusal seemed a nationalist move. It only accepted aid from Spain, the United Kingdom, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates making it clear that it refused the offer from France, a country with which it is in diplomatic crisis."   Ignacio Cembrero, Journalist