G20 Achievements, Social and Economic Control in China, and the Future of Politics in Southeast Asia |
French President Emmanuel Macron, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, U.S. President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visit the Raj Ghat memorial with other Group of Twenty (G20) leaders, on September 10, 2023, in New Delhi. (Reuters/Kenny Holston) |
In this month’s newsletter, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) experts examine the G20 summit’s successes, censorship and economic policy in China, and opposition parties in Thailand and Singapore, among other topics.
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India turned the G20 Leaders’ Summit this month into a public forum that would showcase its new role as the bridge between leading developed democracies and the Global South. The effort succeeded in three important ways, argue Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Manjari Chatterjee Miller and Research Associate Clare Harris in Barron’s. Get the analysis |
At the G20 summit, the United States and its partners revealed their plan for an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, seeking to counter the inroads China has made through its Belt and Road Initiative, by linking India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe. However, calling the plan a serious counterweight to China’s Belt and Road Initiative is premature, argues Fellow for Asia Studies David Sacks in Asia Unbound. Learn more |
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CFR’s Ian Johnson details how China’s underground writers, filmmakers, and artists created a movement to challenge the Communist Party’s control of history. |
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Social and Economic Control in China |
In this New York Times excerpt from his new CFR Book, Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and Their Battle for the Future, Stephen A. Schwarzman Senior Fellow for China Studies Ian Johnson details how China’s underground historians have overcome crackdowns and censorship to forge a nationwide movement that challenges the Chinese Communist Party’s control of history. Read the excerpt |
The posture of China’s growth trajectory has long called for careful structural reform. Instead, Xi Jinping’s economic policy has produced grandiose political rhetoric mixed with clumsy handling of economic challenges and misguided policies, exacerbating China’s latent economic structural problems, explains Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies Zongyuan Zoe Liu in Foreign Policy. Learn more |
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CFR is seeking applicants for its 2024–25 International Affairs Fellowship programs. The programs offer unique opportunities for mid-career professionals who have a demonstrated commitment to a career in foreign policy to gain experience in a new environment in the United States, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Europe, or at an international organization. Applicants with a background in technology are encouraged to apply. Applicants must be U.S. citizens. Visit cfr.org/fellowships or email fellowships@cfr.org for more information. |
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Southeast Asia’s Political Future |
When former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, de facto leader of the Pheu Thai Party, first returned to Thailand in August after a fifteen-year exile, he received a royal pardon reducing his sentence for criminal charges to one year. That pardon suggests Thaksin and Pheu Thai struck a deal with the Thai establishment to gain power and the prime ministership, reports Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Joshua Kurlantzick in Asia Unbound. Read more |
Despite strong support for democratic change in Thailand’s national elections, the ruling establishment has preserved power. Thailand’s new coalition government is led by the longtime opposition party, Pheu Thai, but includes several military-aligned parties—angering many reform-minded Thais who now see Pheu Thai as linked to the establishment and no longer really an opposition party, writes Kurlantzick in Asia Unbound. Read the blog |
Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence has identified itself with unbending integrity, magnifying the damage recent alleged corruption and other scandals have done to its image. That damage, plus growing PAP challenges with innovation and with the idea of equality for all Singaporeans, could harm the PAP electorally, as it faces more organized and assertive opposition parties, writes Kurlantzick in World Politics Review. Get his take |
In recent years, Russia has quietly boosted its military ties and diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asia. Now, however, that influence seems to be dramatically fading, largely cutting Moscow out of a critical region in global politics, reports Kurlantzick in World Politics Review. Read the article |
President Joe Biden’s trip to Hanoi, Vietnam, to upgrade the U.S.-Vietnam relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership symbolizes growing shared bilateral interests. The new, higher-level partnership will likely boost military-to-military ties between the two countries, as well as closer cooperation on issues such as climate change, explain Kurlantzick and Research Associate Abigail McGowan in Asia Unbound. Get the analysis |
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Women's Voices From the Indo-Pacific |
CFR’s interview series Women’s Voices from the Indo-Pacific highlights women leaders from the United States’ Asian democratic partner countries. Launched by Miller, and joined now by John E. Merow Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Studies Sheila A. Smith and Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy Scott A. Snyder, the project will conduct interviews this year with leaders in Japan. Read the update |
In this interview with Smith published in Asia Unbound as part of CFR’s Women’s Voices from the Indo-Pacific project, Governor of Tokyo Koike Yuriko shares her thoughts on gender equality issues in Japan and how local government policy can make a difference. Get the interview |
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North Korea-Russia Relations |
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has again provided a basis for the convergence of political needs and material interests between itself and North Korea, which could foster a mutually beneficial weapons and technology trade and raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula, explains Snyder in this CFR.org In Brief. Learn more |
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The Asia Unbound blog examines political, economic, and social developments in Asia and the region’s central importance in global affairs. |
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A Year On, Charles Is Not the Radical Monarch Some Wished For (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Sydney Morning Herald) Biden’s Absence at ASEAN Summit Seen as Snub to Southeast Asia (Joshua Kurlantzick, Foreign Policy) Biden Will Seek World Bank Reform to Counter China at G20 Summit in India (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Newsweek) Delhi Is Rolling Out the Welcome Mat as Leaders Arrive for the G20 Summit in India (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, The World) G20 Summit: Leaders Agree on Foreign Aid Agenda, But Soften Stance on Ukraine War (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, New York Times) Geopolitical Balancing Act Before the G20 (in Norwegian) (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Dagens Nœringsliv) - How China's Underground Historians Fight the Politics of Amnesia (Ian Johnson, New Yorker)
Hun Sen’s Successor Must Keep Up His Chess Game (Joshua Kurlantzick, Foreign Policy) India Hopes to Lead on Climate, But Coal Still Powers Its Economic Growth (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Los Angeles Times) India’s G20 Presidency Risks Ringing Hollow as Ukraine War Dashes Hopes of Consensus (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, CNBC) India’s G20 Summit: Ambitions for Unity and Recovery and the Problems Ahead (in Chinese) (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, The Paper) Narendra Modi’s Gaze Is Installed in Every Corner of New Delhi for the G20 (in Spanish) (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Heraldo de Aragón) Ottawa Calls for Calm After India Issues Travel Advisory (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Globe and Mail) Safeguarding Democracy: Michael Chong’s Battle Against Transnational Repression (Joshua Kurlantzick, Sunday Guardian) ‘Sparks’ Review: A War in Chinese History, Today (Ian Johnson, Wall Street Journal) Ukraine Continues to Cast Shadow of Uncertainty Over G20 Consensus (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Newsroom Odisha) Ukraine War a Thorny Issue for India’s G20 Leadership Ambitions (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, La Prensa Latina) U.S. Sees Once-in-Generation Shot to Reset Rocky Thai Alliance (Joshua Kurlantzick, Bloomberg) With an Eye on China, Biden Caught in the Middle in Canada-India Tensions (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Washington Examiner) Xi Jinping Snubs the G20 and Will Not Attend the New Delhi Summit (in Spanish) (Manjari Chatterjee Miller, La Vanguardia)
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The Asia program at the Council on Foreign Relations informs policymakers, business leaders, and the public about the complex challenges facing the world’s largest continent. To stay up to date on the latest Asia-related commentary and analysis, follow CFR’s Asia program on Twitter and visit our blog Asia Unbound. |
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