Atlantic Council ,Editors' Picks - September 02, 2023 by Katherine Walla

 

Atlantic Council Editors	6:06 PM (2 hours ago)
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This week's edition brought to you by Katherine Walla, Associate Director, Editorial     SEPTEMBER 2, 2023 | For many students in the United States, this week included their first days back to school. They’re sharpening pencils (or charging laptops); zipping up their backpacks; and diving headfirst into history, economics, government, and more. If your school days are behind you, avoid the feeling of missing out by catching up on our experts’ insights. This week’s lessons include Russia’s economic strategy, the Netherlands’ unusual constitution, and more—no homework or pop quizzes required.     The price to pay. Because of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is slated to be leapfrogged by Indonesia two years sooner on the list of the world’s largest economies. That original analysis comes straight from geoeconomics mavens Josh Lipsky and Niels Graham, who pored over the International Monetary Fund’s growth projections, comparing Russia’s predicted economic performance with and without its invasion. But Russia’s downgrade, fueled by acute brain drain, isn’t the only reason for the projected 2026 swap in rank: Indonesia has its own growth—in its labor force, commodity exports, and more—to thank.  Dive into the data to get ahead on Russia’s future fall.     Criminal law. When it comes to understanding the sanctions placed on Iranian officials and entities, rely on staff lawyers Celeste Kmiotek and Lisandra Novo. In a new series, they’re unpacking these sanctions so that people affected by human-rights violations can better understand how the international community is working to prevent perpetrators from continuing abuses. In this edition, Celeste and Lisandra narrow in on the United Kingdom and Canada’s new sanctions on Iranian officials, businesspeople, and entities for the provision of military supplies to Iranian security forces and to Russia. They write that these designations are important because they interrupt the drone manufacturing supply chain, among other impacts. But there’s still plenty more designating—and asset freezing —for the West to do, they add. Decode the sanctions-speak with our experts.     Born this way. Following the Netherlands’ decision to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, Timo S. Koster put on his detective hat to get to the bottom of why the country is “punching above its weight” when it comes to military aid to Ukraine. It comes down to much more than a thirst for regional leadership, writes Timo, a former career diplomat at the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Rather, protecting the international order is in the country’s blood—well, in its constitution—and the Netherlands has felt Russian aggression firsthand after the downing of flight MH17. Read Timo’s analysis on why the Netherlands is meeting this moment.     Meet the robot ruble. This Labor Day weekend, Americans can’t yet pay for their shopping with digital dollars; but some Russians can already pay with digital rubles at several retail locations (with a few caveats). That’s courtesy of a new pilot program through which the Russian central bank is testing out its digital currency, or the “robot ruble” as some are calling it. But Russia hopes to do more than cater to domestic shopaholics with its CBDC, write Charles Lichfield, an expert on the Russian economy, and Ananya Kumar, who knows digital currencies inside and out. They write that Russia is looking to open alternative channels for cross-border payments and a replacement to the SWIFT messaging system—from which it was booted last year—to ease its economic woes. But those goals, Ananya and Charles write, are unlikely to pan out. Read why here.     Georgia on our minds. Ukraine’s formidable resistance to invasion does not mean all of Russia’s regional goals have been blocked. That’s because, as former Georgian Member of Parliament Giorgi Kandelaki writes this week, Russia is “winning” in Georgia. That can be seen in Tbilisi’s Kremlin-friendly policies and China-embracing activities—all of which show that a shift away from the West is under way. There’s more too, from Georgian authorities’ embrace of anti-democratic policies to the proliferation of Russian propaganda. Check out this former Georgian official’s plea to the West for action.     Something else catch your eye at the Atlantic Council or beyond this week? Email us at editor@atlanticcouncil.org to let us know.