İtalyan Düşünce Kuruluşu ISPI'nin Çin hk. kısa değerlendirmesi 22 Mart 2023 Xi the Peacemaker? China’s Rise on the Global Stage

 İtalya Düşünce Kuruluşu ISPI'nin Çin hk. kısa değerlendirmesi 

Xi the Peacemaker? China’s Rise on the Global Stage 

22 Mart 2023

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During his three-day visit to Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s sought to strengthen his country’s so-called no-limits-friendship with Russia.  Beijing has also put its 12-point position paper on the Ukraine crisis forward. Xi’s visit occurred right after the CCP wrapped up its Two Sessions, China’s annual assembly where the nation’s political direction is decided for the coming year. Unsurprisingly, Xi used this year’s assembly to secure his grasp on the Party by taking measures to stabilize the economy and by pushing his ideological propaganda. With regard to foreign affairs, Xi has explicitly criticized the US attempts to “encircle China". He also strengthened China’s international prestige as both a responsible power and an alternative to the US by facilitating the Iran-Saudi reconciliation deal. Furthermore, Xi announced his intention to have a phone-call with Ukrainian President Zelensky.  

Why does Xi Jinping visit to Russia matter?  

1. Strengthening bilateral relations. If there was any doubt about Xi and –Putin's relationship, this most recent visit made clear that the Chinese leader will support his “no-limits-friend", regardless of what the International Criminal Court thinks. Xi even expressed his support for Putin’s yet-to-be-announced presidential bid in 2024. However, Russia-China relations are becoming increasingly unbalanced, not only economically, but especially regarding political power. Putin and Xi signed the Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era. It is clear from the title of this document that it adopts China’s worldview. According to Xi, the new era began when he assumed the role of Party leader in 2012 and will result in the in the achievement of the “China Dream” in 2049. In addition, this joint statement adopts China’s position on the war as a basis for future negotiations.  

2. An alternative to the Us for the Global South. Even though securing bilateral relations is an important goal, the primary reason for the visit was to show the world that China and Russia stand together, and that united they will counter the Us. The two powers want to strengthen their leadership in the Global South through a multilateral approach, as opposed to what they call US unilateralism. The expansion of the BRICS and SCO along with empowering the G20 as opposed to the G7, led by the Global North or Collective West. Successfully acting as a global peacemaker will prove to be an important step for the PRC if it wants to achieve its goals.  

3. A new foreign policy posture? Whether Xi Jinping has moved away or not from Deng’s “keep a low profile” mantra has been debated extensively over the past decade. However, during the recent Two Sessions Xi has presented a new “24-characters formula” that praises assertiveness over keeping a low profile. In addition, for the first time, Xi directly addressed the US as a source of concern and of international turmoil. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, even warned that a conflict between the two powers could break out. These rhetorical changes are reflected in the PRCs actions, as Beijing hosted Iran and Saudi Arabia during the final step in their rapprochement negotiation. Sorting diplomatic issues in the MENA region might help China get ready for a potential new role as a mediator between Putin and Zelensky. 

Meanwhile, Xi did his homework. What are the main takeaways from the Two sessions? 

1. Party over the State: Xi at the helm. Despite claims that Xi is getting weaker, the CCP General Secretary continues to push forward his agenda of political centralization and greater Party role. New reforms were announced to give the party more control over the financial system along with the tech and innovation sectors. This highlights Xi’s main concerns: to ensure that Chinese growth is more resilient to both debt and the pending real estate bubble, while at the same time achieving tech self-sufficiency. Furthermore, Xi Jinping has used the Two Sessions as a means to surround himself with allies. This is seen with the appointment of Li Qiang, the new premier and number two in the Party since October, who worked with Xi decades ago in Zhejiang, a province where many Xi's faction members rose.where many Xi's faction members rose. 

2. Economic headaches. China is facing economic challenges, due in part to international tensions that affect global trade and the need to restore its pre-pandemic levels of consumption. These issues were brought to the forefront after the economic growth target was set at an unambitious 5%. Despite a rise in domestic consumption and a 2.4% increase in industrial production during the first few months of 2023, China is still struggling with its youth unemployment at 18% and a total debt of 273.2% of its GDP. 

Our take

Xi’s grasp on power appears to have survived both the end of the Zero-Covid policy and last November's wave of protests. However, with his new cabinet of allies, he must deal with pressing issues such as consumption and financial risks. Self-reliance might be a way to mitigate US tech containment, but it will require time, funds and a renewal of China’s innovation model. Domestic security allows for a firmer stance on foreign affairs. Indeed, it seems that the PRC is taking steps toward becoming a more involved global power.  After hosting the Iran- Saudi negotiations, Xi’s visit to Russia is an assertive move in response to reiterated request from the West for Beijing to distance itself from Russia. In response to these requests, Xi supported Putin’s potential presidential bid in 2024 just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian President. China is seeking to gain international legitimacy as a responsible power and as an alternative to the US-led world order, especially in the eyes of the Global South and of European countries that are skeptical about US policies to contain China.