China’s Iran-Saudi Deal May Not Stick
Beijing will have a tough time balancing ties with Riyadh and Tehran.
On Friday, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a joint agreement, brokered by China, to pursue the restoration of diplomatic relations. The agreement outlines a two-month process to reopen embassies in Tehran and Riyadh, as well as discussions on progress toward a range of cooperation mechanisms. The breakthrough agreement highlights China’s willingness to play the role of mediator in the Middle East and shore up its investments and interests in the Persian Gulf, but the real test is whether China can continue to balance the pursuit of its interests with both sides without derailing its own progress.
Since December 2022, China has been doing damage control after deepening ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) put strain on its relationship with Iran. The Chinese government has repeatedly expressed to Iran in direct engagement, public statements, and bilateral cooperation that it considers Tehran and Riyadh equivalent partners, but Beijing’s actions have signaled a subtle shift toward Riyadh, at least in the near term.
Iran’s frustration with China will likely not be satiated by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Beijing in February but will require China to take real steps—particularly in fiscal and economic terms—to get the relationship realigned. While Iran may feel it is out of China’s favor now, the pendulum is likely to swing back to Iran as China reconciles its near- and long-term priorities. But balancing ties with both sides will be a tricky prospect, given the critical role of security in the region.
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