As the wave of anger against the “system” continues unabated and the political world is trying to deal with an emotionally charged situation, one can attempt an assessment of potential future developments.
The first opinion polls, published in the last few days – their reliability being questioned for a number of reasons, not confined just to their timing – show some damage to the government, which most likely will prove to be more extensive than presented.
Party officials, as well as pundits known for their ideological leanings and political preferences, give their distorted analyses of the situation.
On the other hand, an objective observer would offer the following thoughts:
The political system as a whole is paying a price. The government will see its numbers plummet as many of its supporters will choose not to vote, at least not in the first polls.
For his part, the prime minister hopes that once these disenchanted New Democracy voters have expressed their anger in the first election, they – most of them at least – will come around and vote, even coldheartedly, for the government in the second one.
On the opposition side, SYRIZA is not gaining, at least not as much as its leadership would hope for. The same is true for the third largest party, PASOK.
The prevailing sentiment is to punish the political system as a whole, and in the eyes of most this is represented by all three parties mentioned above; it is they that have governed in the past and are expected to do so again in the future, in one way or another.
On the other hand the small radical left party of former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, looks to gain from the anger and its chances of entering parliament seem increased.
Once the elections are announced, about a month before the date of the polls, the Supreme Court will be called upon to decide if the far right nationalist party of former Golden Dawn leading member, Ilias Kasidiaris, should be banned from participating. If it is allowed to run, and given the anti-systemic sentiment, it looks very likely that it will enter parliament with a higher percentage of votes than initially expected.
A final observation. Although many supporters of New Democracy felt until recently that their party would succeed in attaining a majority and would be able to govern by itself, it is now becoming more apparent that the most likely scenario is a coalition government of one form or another.
That is the result of more and more people feeling a need for additional checks and balances on any government, something a coalition partner would provide.
If that is the case, the question then becomes which parties will form this coalition. Here, we have to wait for the voters to decide.
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