Will Russia’s Ukraine invasion push Nato’s prodigal son Turkey back into US arms?

 From SCMP

This Week in Asia / 

Politics

Will Russia’s Ukraine invasion push Nato’s prodigal son Turkey back into US arms?

The Ukraine war has given Washington and Ankara an opportunity to revive their ties that have soured over stalled defence deals and human rights disputes

While Turkey struck a measured tone in the face of its economic ally’s military action, experts say Nato and the US need the country to tackle a combative Moscow

Tom Hussain

Tom Hussain

+The Ukraine war has prompted calls in Washington’s foreign policy circles for the United States to rebuild defence ties with prodigal Nato member Turkey.

Turkey has declined to enforce Western sanctions against Russia, with which it shares a maritime border in the Black Sea. Ankara depends on Moscow for nearly half the natural gas it consumes and for two-thirds of the wheat it imports.

Despite Turkey’s closeness with Russia, it has also maintained friendly ties with Ukraine, which received 20 Bayraktar TB2 drones last year after the West snubbed Kyiv’s request.

These weapons have proven effective against Russian tanks and air defence systems following Moscow’s invasion of its neighbour. Ukrainian officials claim they have got more drones since the February 24 military operation.

While Turkey has not confirmed the latest deal, Istanbul-based political analyst Yusuf Erim said the country does have “drones on stock where an expedited sale would be possible.”

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Before the Russian shelling, Turkey was working with Ukraine to establish a pro-Nato bloc that included Azerbaijan and Georgia, which applied for membership of the European Union on Wednesday.

Georgia also bore the brunt of Russian aggression in 2008, when it attacked the former Soviet state over two pro-Moscow breakaway republics.

As the Russian offensive against Ukraine enters its eighth day, several retired US diplomats and military officers have called on the White House to revive its strained relationship with Turkey.

Washington-Ankara ties took a hit in 2017 after it rejected the American-made Patriot missile defence system in favour of Russia’s S-400 Triumf. In retaliation, the US ejected Turkey from a Nato-led joint F-35 fighter jet production programme in 2019 and imposed sanctions on its defence industry a year later.

The transcontinental country, however, continues to store US nuclear warheads at its Incirlik airbase.

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James F. Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, said Ankara is “by far the strongest of the six Nato frontline countries facing Russia and has major geostrategic interests at risk after it lost the buffer provided by Ukraine.”

“It is hard to imagine success for Nato in this crisis without Turkey’s diplomatic support,” said Jeffrey, who currently chairs the Middle East programme at the Wilson Centre.

It remains to be seen whether Ankara can face the potential economic impacts if the government comes under pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin, he added.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has a strong rapport with Putin, rebuked Russia’s actions but also took aim at the West for previously hesitating to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

Similarly, Ankara abstained from voting last Friday on a motion to expel Russia from the Council of Europe, but supported the censuring of Moscow by the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday.

The two men’s friendship helped Russia and Turkey broker a ceasefire with Armenia and Azerbaijan following a conflict in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020.

But all niceties aside, Ankara last week declared the Ukraine conflict a war, empowering itself under the terms of Montreux Convention to block the passage of Russian warships through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits.

Ukrainian firefighters extinguish a blaze at a damaged city centre after a Russian air raid in Chernigiv on Thursday. Photo: AP

Ukrainian firefighters extinguish a blaze at a damaged city centre after a Russian air raid in Chernigiv on Thursday. Photo: AP

Although the US welcomed Turkey’s decision, efforts to iron out differences between the two sides have not made much progress.

They include the Joe Biden administration’s staunch criticism of Erdogan’s human rights record and its refusal to sell the latest-generation F-16 warplanes to Turkey and update the country’s existing fleet.

Biden also omitted the Turkish leader from the US-hosted Summit for Democracy in December and he did not hold telephonic exchanges with Erdogan as Washington sought to rally allies and partners to condemn Russia.

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Jeffrey, the ex-diplomat said, “it is Washington’s responsibility to coordinate closely and creatively with Turkey.”

“The outreach should begin with its recent F-16 request and take it forward by developing common diplomatic-security approaches for Nato’s southeastern flank,” he said.

Turkish analyst Erim said the Ukraine conflict has created a “geopolitical opportunity” for the US and Turkey to work together again, but stressed that “both sides need to engage in confidence-building measures which are going to be a tough ask.”

“If Nato is to be rejuvenated to contain a more aggressive Russia going forward, Turkey will be an indispensable part of that strategy, just as it was during the Cold War,” Erim said, adding that Washington and Ankara’s bilateral problems will likely become compartmentalised amid Moscow’s belligerence.

Gönül Tol, director of the Turkey programme at the Middle East Institute, said Erdogan’s stance on Ukraine was “a wise one meant to mend ties with the West while avoiding a significant rift with Moscow.”

“Ankara must be hoping that its recent announcement will help drive home the point that denying it the F-35 or F-16s will hurt Nato,” she said.

Meanwhile, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will arrive in Turkey on Friday as part of a week-long tour of five Mediterranean states to seek their support for the diplomatic campaign against Russia.

Tom Hussain

Tom Hussain