How much Greens and Liberals will sacrifice for the next German government?

 

How much Greens and Liberals will sacrifice for the next German government?    By Markus Ziener, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund With the centre strengthened and the fringes weakened, Germans decided to vote for political stability. This is good news and should not be underestimated if compared to other countries where the far-right and populist parties have gained much support in recent years. However, while putting up stop signs to radical parties on the right and left, voters also abandoned the two people’s parties: the conservatives (CDU) and the social democrats (SPD). Until last weekend, both saw themselves as the last Big Tent party standing. The illusion is now broken. In fact, voters handed the real power to two smaller parties, the Greens (Die Grünen) and the liberal FDP, who are now guaranteed to be part of almost any possible coalition. If they manage to find common ground, they could together wield great power. But the burning question is: are they able to compromise? Greens and Liberals are far apart on a whole range of issues. The most divisive one is a philosophical debate: what is the role of the state and to what extent should the state interfere in people’s individual lives? While the Greens are ready to draw numerous red lines and even fine citizens for overstepping boundaries, the Liberals reject excessive state intervention as an ill-advised approach. This divergence becomes most obvious in the way both parties want to tackle one of Germany’s most pressing issues: the fight against climate change. The Greens advocate clear caps for CO2 emissions and tight deadlines for the companies to meet. The Liberals prefer to use market-based tools, such as trade with emission certificates, to achieve the same goals. The FDP believes the market knows what works best and should be left alone to decide whether electric batteries or hydrogen will power industry and mobility. It is not the overall goal – climate neutrality – that is disputed but rather the means to get there. The two parties are also at odds on taxation and spending. The Liberals worry higher taxes might further damage Germany's image as a place for investment. The FDP fears another tax hike –  like the introduction of a wealth tax and a property tax as proposed by the SPD and Greens –  would scare off entrepreneurs and foreign investors. Even if it’s still difficult to see how the partners-to-be can bridge these major gaps, there is nevertheless common ground. Greens and Liberals agree that digitisation and education in Germany needs a do-over, and defend the modernisation and liberalisation of immigration policy. There is also considerable overlap on the role human rights should play in foreign policy. Both parties see China and Russia with a critical eye. The China question could spark significant conflict with Olaf Scholz and the German industry, which is heavily dependent on sales to and from Beijing. Volkswagen, for example, sells over 40% of its cars to China. The situation is similarly tricky regarding Russia. While the two small parties hold no punches when calling out President Vladimir Putin for turning the country into a de-facto dictatorship bereft of free speech, the Social Democrats pursue a much softer line. The SPD famously supports the construction of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. There is yet another commonality. Since both parties were largely supported by the youth, FDP and Greens represent an electorate that is here to stay while the SPD voters are older and much more traditional in their thinking. Still, the question remains whether all this common ground is sufficient to make up for the ideological divisions. The leaders, Christian Lindner of the FDP and Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, must hammer out a solid platform that will hold over four years. The SPD watches the rapprochement of the two potential coalition partners with suspicion. However, there is not much they can do. For them, practically no other coalition option is viable. And what about the so-called Jamaica coalition, putting together the CDU, Greens and Liberals? This is an option very unlikely to materialise given the scope of the conservative defeat. A potential Jamaica 2021 is not the same constellation as Jamaica 2017 that almost came to fruition when Angela Merkel, who had greater sympathy for the Greens, was running the show. These days, Germans clearly see Jamaica as the second-best scenario and show little appetite for it. This is partly because, after the last election, voters were already served the second-best option: the grand coalition between CDU and SPD, which was formed because no other alternative was in sight. This time around, Germans want just the first dish.