Biden is right to sanction Belarus. Now it's Turkey's turn

 Washington Examiner 

Biden is right to sanction Belarus. Now it's Turkey's turn

Michael Rubin  3 hrs ago (August  13, 2021)

On Aug. 9, the one-year anniversary of Belarus’s fraudulent elections, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced "decisive action against 44 individuals and entities in order to hold [Alexander Lukashenko] and his regime to account for its continued, violent repression of Belarusians inside and outside the country."

Recep Tayyip Erdogan wearing a suit and tie smiling and looking at the camera© Provided by Washington Examiner

His move comes just over a week after President Joe Biden met Belorussian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya at the White House. The logic behind the Biden administration’s choice of sanctions was wise: By targeting the "cliques and cronies" surrounding Lukashenko, Biden hopes to sow dissent among the only Belorussians about whom Lukashenko cares — which is to say, those upon whose patronage the dictator relies. If sanctions diminish their profit in supporting Lukashenko, the Biden administration hopes these cronies might be more amenable to change. If not, the White House and State Department can still justify their actions in striking at the machine upon which Europe’s worst dictator relies.

Such a strategy is not new. After Russian forces invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, then-President Barack Obama targeted close associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many of Putin's friends and neighbors from the Lake Komsomolsk dacha community attached themselves to Putin’s coattails and grew fabulously rich. Obama hoped to show these associates that, should Putin continue his aggression, they might stand to lose much of what they had gained.

Of course, Russian forces remain in control of Crimea, and Putin’s supporters weathered the sanctions. This should not surprise. Sanctions seldom work quickly or achieve their goals absent a broader strategy.

Turkey, however, could be an exception.

After Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrested American Pastor Andrew Brunson on trumped-up charges, then-President Donald Trump imposed sanctions that essentially crashed the Turkish currency. Erdogan surrendered and released his hostage.

Erdogan is even more vulnerable today. Turkey’s currency hovers near historic lows, and Erdogan's efforts to enrich himself and his family chaff even followers within his own party. Fires rage across Anatolia, compounded by Erdogan’s mismanagement. The attention-hungry Turkish president responded by driving his motorcade to his new Marmaris palace, disrupting firefighters and throwing tea bags to displaced locals in a tin-ear effort to win their support.

Meanwhile, Erdogan becomes more defiant.

Last month, he transferred parts of the Cypriot city of Varosha to the proxy state Turkey established in the occupied zone. Blinken responded with a milquetoast statement: "The United States views Turkish Cypriot actions in Varosha, with the support of Turkey, as provocative, unacceptable, and incompatible with their past commitments to engage constructively in settlement talks. We urge Turkish Cypriots and Turkey to reverse their decision announced today." Erdogan, as always, ignored him.

It is time for plan B.

Erdogan regularly rewards his cronies with lucrative contracts, especially in the construction industry. Turkey’s de facto annexation of Varosha could enable Erdogan to direct billions of dollars to his top supporters, with a huge proportion kicked back for himself. Inside Turkey, Erdogan is close to two construction firms: Mehmet Cengiz’s Cengiz Holding and Nihat Ozdemir’s Limak Holding. Both Cengiz and Ozdemir are part of the so-called Gang of Five businessmen upon whom Erdogan relies and to whom he funnels a disproportionate number of contracts.

Neither company is popular. Last winter, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main CHP opposition group, castigated the Gang of Five and promised to nationalize their assets should the opposition win forthcoming elections. It quickly became one of his most popular speeches. While Erdogan relies on both Cengiz and Ozdemir, they have little grassroots support inside Turkey. Turks resent that after Erdogan awarded Cengiz Holding $2.4 billion in public tenders, for example, Erdogan forgave $256 million in accrued taxes. In recent days, local villagers, meanwhile, say that the government is using the fires as a cover to clear a forest so Limak Holding can build a new lignite mine.

The Biden administration should take note. After all, in 2019, the Department of Justice indicted a State Department contracting official whom Limak Holding apparently bribed. There would be no better response than to sanction Ozdemir.

Lukashenko may be a hardened dictator backed by Putin. But Erdogan is more akin to a schoolyard bully whose bulk is fat rather than muscle. If Biden and Blinken are serious about reversing Erdogan’s provocations in Varosha and elsewhere, it is time to replace empty statements with sanctions targeting men like Cengiz and Ozdemir. Biden and Blinken may be surprised at how quickly the Turkish dictator folds.

Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.