In the early hours of June 13 local time, Israel struck more than 100 Iranian military and nuclear targets, catalyzing an exchange of missile fire between the two countries over the last few days.
Civilian casualties on both sides are starting to climb, and the latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which were scheduled to take place in Oman on June 15, were called off. This week, we’re watching what’s next in the Middle East.
Israel’s first round of airstrikes targeted Natanz, Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility, and killed top nuclear scientists just days before the United States and Iran were scheduled to begin a sixth round of negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump aimed to “make a deal” to halt Iran’s nuclear program as it was on the precipice of gaining nuclear capabilities, despite the United States’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action during his first term.
The effect of the strikes on Iranian nuclear development and military capability is significant. FP’s John Haltiwinger interviewed Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, to get a perspective on the impact of Iranian personnel losses. The bottom line? The experience and leadership of the commanders killed in the Israeli strikes may be irreplaceable as Iran finds itself on the precipice of its first major war since 1988.
FP columnist Matthew Kroenig assessed the situation as a victory for Israel and the United States, arguing that military action to delay the development of Iran’s nuclear program was necessary. “We have learned this week that Israel is willing to go to war to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons. So long as this remains true, Iran will not join the nuclear club,” Kroenig writes.
Meanwhile, Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, argues that the real reason for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s offensive against Iran is not nuclear nonproliferation. “Israel isn’t trying to knock out Iran’s centrifuges; it’s trying to knock out the regime itself,” he writes.
Is rapid de-escalation on the table? In “How the Israel-Iran War Might End,” Iselin Brady and Daniel Byman examine the possibilities of an Iranian defeat, an Israeli retreat, and the potential for U.S. military involvement in the conflict. With Netanyahu vowing to keep up strikes for “as many days as it takes,” the conflict will likely extend beyond a week.
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