GZero Daily Newsletter - March 25, 2024 Presented by mastercard.com Written by John Haltiwanger, Matthew Kendrick, Tracy Moran, and Willis Sparks. Edited by John Haltiwanger, Matthew Kendrick, and Tracy Moran.

 GZero Daily Newsletter - March 25, 2024

Presented by mastercard.com

Written by John Haltiwanger, Matthew Kendrick, Tracy Moran, and Willis Sparks. Edited by John Haltiwanger, Matthew Kendrick, and Tracy Moran.

Dear Önder,

Happy Monday! March 25 is Tolkien Reading Day, a vaunted tradition among both your favorite geopolitics writers and right-wing Italian politicians. (Say what you will about Giorgia Meloni, she has good taste in epic fantasy).

Now, on to some less whimsical tales of power and hubris:

Putin reacts to IS attacks

Trump’s big bill comes due

Tens of thousands flee Port-au-Prince

TikTok’s worldwide clout

Plus: Stephen Walt compares Biden and Trump's foreign policy

Enjoy,

– The Daily crew

What We’re Watching: Putin blames Ukraine, Trump can’t pay, Haitians flee capital, Sudan fears famine

Moscow mourns amid international blame game

President Vladimir Putin declared Sunday a national day of mourning for the 137 people killed at the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on Friday. Several gunmen opened fire at the popular music venue late Friday, injuring another 182 and leaving more than a third of the building on fire. Crews are still sifting through the debris for bodies.

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack, which came just weeks after Washington warned of possible terrorism at large venues in the Moscow area, which Putin notably ridiculed as fearmongering.

What motivated the militants? In a word: Syria. Russia has been helping the Assad regime ramp up its attacks on Islamic State strongholds in recent months, but the battles have been going on for years, with anger festering over Putin’s support for President Bashar al-Assad.

Still, Putin looks east. Despite the Islamic State’s admission, Putin tried to blame Ukraine. He also blamed “international terrorism” but said the perpetrators — 11 have been arrested, including four of the gunmen — were trying to flee to Ukraine after the attack.

Ukraine has repeatedly denied any role in Friday’s tragedy. Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities intensified over the weekend, with drones hitting Kyiv and Lviv, along the Polish border. While no one was injured, Poland reported that Russian cruise missiles had entered its airspace.

"Pointing the finger at Ukraine and sidelining the ISIS-K angle — at least in official statements — serves the Kremlin’s purpose of rationalizing a potential escalation in its military operations against the adversary," says Eurasia Group analyst Tinatin Japaridze, possibly including a new round of conscription, though Putin did not mention mobilization specifically on Saturday.

What happens if Trump can’t find $454 million?

Donald Trump’s half-billion dollar bond in his New York fraud case is due Monday and his lawyers say he doesn’t have it.

New York Attorney General Letitia James has already positioned herself to seize Trump’s properties in Westchester County and could potentially target his bank accounts. She’s likely to wait a few days, however, pending the ruling of Trump’s appeal.

The former president’s legal team is arguing that he should be allowed to post a smaller bond because raising such a large sum is impossible. However, Trump on Friday undercut their messaging on social media by claiming he does have $500 million in cash on hand, which may make it seem to the court that he’s simply trying to get out of paying. His net looks like it could get a nice boost now that the social network Trump owns, Truth Social, has approval to go public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, but it might be six months before he can cash out.

So will there be a fire sale? It may be easier for James to go after bank accounts first, because seizing and auctioning off real estate is irreversible should the appeals court offer Trump some relief. Should the courts stick with the status quo, however, James could start auctioning off Trump’s buildings about two months after she seizes them.

Haitians flee capital en masse

Intense violence in Port-au-Prince led over 33,000 Haitians to flee the city in the last two weeks alone, according to the United Nations.

Gangs attacked two specialized police bases in Port-au-Prince on Saturday and continue to make advances. Over 2,500 people have been killed in the fighting this year. Violence has kept the air and seaports shuttered all month, making it difficult for aid organizations to bring supplies in. The World Food Programme now says Haiti faces a record level of food insecurity.

Small signs of hope. The transitional council meant to replace outgoing Prime Minister Ariel Henry saw a key breakthrough last week when former Senator Jean-Charles Moïse reversed his position and accepted a seat. All seven voting members are now in place, and could name a president as soon as next week.

Progress toward setting up a government could also remove impediments to the Kenyan-led intervention force that has been stalled for months. We’re watching for who ends up in charge, and whether Haitians buy into this unelected government.

Famine looms in Sudan

As much of the world focuses on conflicts raging in Ukraine and Gaza, the ongoing war in Sudan has generated what a senior UN official said last week was “one the worst humanitarian disasters in recent memory.”

The numbers speak for themselves. Nearly a year of war between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has killed tens of thousands, forced eight million from their homes, and left more than 18 million people facing acute food insecurity. Some 730,000 Sudanese children are now suffering from severe malnutrition. Famine looms as a real possibility in the coming weeks.

There are no promising signs of an end to the fighting. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the Rapid Support Forces have so far refused calls for a cease-fire. The greatest challenge for aid workers hoping to bring relief to the war’s millions of refugees is that few people around the world know it’s happening and that the governments of countries that might help are focused instead on the conflicts that matter most to their populations.A message from our sponsor Mastercard

Digital payments support consumers, small businesses, and the economy

“Digital payments are critical to small businesses and our ability to operate on a daily basis." That's what entrepreneur Rahama Wright shared during a recent summit in Washington, D.C., focused on the value of digital payments and the benefits the ecosystem delivers to all of its stakeholders.

With speakers that included House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and industry voices, the summit by Mastercard and Punchbowl News also highlighted how innovation in payments supports security and inclusion. On financial inclusion, Mastercard’s President of the Americas Linda Kirkpatrick said, “It's not only the right thing to do for society. It's also good for our business.”

How the US election will change the world

What role will foreign policy play in the upcoming US presidential election? “More than it usually does,” says Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt in the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. “Partly because the economy doesn't seem to be helping Biden as much as it should be, partly because it's hard to look at Biden's foreign policy and tout a lot of big success stories."

In a wide-ranging interview comparing US foreign policy under a second Biden or Trump term, Walt suggests that they may not be as different as people expect. “On a bunch of big issues, the daylight between him and Biden just isn't that great.” It may come as little surprise that Bremmer disagrees.

Watch the full clip here and catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online or on US public television. Check local listings.

Graphic Truth

TikTok has taken the world by storm over the past few years, growing its global audience to a whopping 900 million users and counting. You can find a wide array of video content on the app, ranging from people cooking, dancing, and pontificating to breaking news and political drama. It can be quite addictive.

Meanwhile, politicians in Washington continue to raise the alarm about the potential national security risks of the app, which is owned by the China-based company ByteDance. The US House of Representatives recently voted to ban TikTok if its Chinese owner doesn’t sell it, and we’re waiting to see whether the Senate votes on the measure. But many American users seem unfazed by the political discourse as the US boasts the most users – nearly 150 million – of any country in the world.

Should people be more concerned about the Chinese government spying on them through TikTok?

Hard Numbers: US government shutdown averted, Nigerian schoolkids rescued, Israel’s hospital raid proves deadly, Search for Mexican kidnap victims continues

   

1.2 trillion: The Senate passed the $1.2 trillion spending bill on Saturday in a 74-24 vote, enabling President Joe Biden to sign it into law and avert a partial government shutdown. This will keep the lights on for roughly three-quarters of the federal government until October, raising military pay and increasing funds for US-Mexico border patrol.

137: Nigerian authorities on Sunday rescued 137 schoolkids who were kidnapped two weeks ago in the northern state of Kaduna, with 76 girls and 61 boys found in the neighboring Zamfara state. Earlier reports suggested that 287 children had been kidnapped, but that number was an estimate, and authorities say all of the kidnap victims have been found and will soon return home.

170: Israel says its raid on Gaza’s largest health facility, Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital, has killed 170 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants, with more than 800 detained. Israeli special forces and tanks encircled the hospital early last week, forcing thousands of Palestinians who had been sheltering there to evacuate. On Sunday, Israel reportedly surrounded two more hospitals in Gaza.

42: After 66 people were kidnapped Friday in the northwestern Mexican state of Sinaloa – home to the infamous Sinaloa Cartel – authorities have worked over the weekend to rescue 42 of the hostages, including 18 children. The search continues for the remaining 24.

This edition of GZERO Daily was written by John Haltiwanger, Matthew Kendrick, Tracy Moran, and Willis Sparks. Edited by John Haltiwanger, Matthew Kendrick, and Tracy Moran.

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