POLITICO Geert Wilders seeks coalition allies after seismic Dutch election BY ELINE SCHAART NOVEMBER 24, 2023 4:00 AM CET

 POLITICO

Geert Wilders seeks coalition allies after seismic Dutch election

Coalition talks are set to begin Friday, but will anyone be willing to work with the election’s far-right winner?

NETHERLANDS-POLITICS-ELECTION

While he definitely has his rivals' attention, it's by no means certain that Geert Wilders will find enough allies to form a coalition | Koen Van Weel/ANP/AFP via Getty Images

BY ELINE SCHAART

NOVEMBER 24, 2023 4:00 AM CET

THE HAGUE — Far-right populist Geert Wilders wants to be the Netherlands’ next prime minister.

His party won around 25 percent of Wednesday’s vote, becoming by far the largest in the lower house of parliament, but there are still many bridges to cross before he can form a government.

Political parties are meeting on Friday with Speaker Vera Bergkamp to decide who should be the so-called scout — a senior statesman or woman who looks into possible government coalitions in the days after an election.

Within a week of the election, the parliament will appoint an informateur to conduct detailed negotiations with the most likely candidates.

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The last government of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte took a record 299 days to coalesce; this time it could take even longer.

Founded in 2006, Wilders’ PVV has finally become the largest party in parliament, and as its leader declares, can “no longer be ignored.” But while he definitely has his rivals’ attention, it’s by no means certain that Wilders will find enough allies to form a coalition. 

Dilan Yeşilgöz, head of the liberal-conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), said previously she would not rule out joining forces with Wilders. 

However, after a historic election night that saw her ruling People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) lose 10 of its previous 34 seats, Yeşilgöz said she was skeptical. “I have said that I didn’t see that this country would have a leader who does not bring together all Dutch people … but above all I don’t see a majority forming,” she said on Thursday after a meeting with her party. 

Another key player is Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the new center-right New Social Contract (NSC) party, which secured 20 seats. During the campaign he also excluded working with Wilders due to his anti-constitutional plans to ban Islamic schools, mosques and the Quran.

On election night, however, Omtzigt struck a more moderate tone, saying “we are available to govern.” He called the outcome “difficult,” and said it “will require politicians to step over their own shadow.” 

On Thursday, before meeting with his party, Omtzigt was more reticent, and said nothing about cooperation with the PVV. 

A coalition of the Freedom Party, VVD and NSC would have 81 seats combined, a majority in the 150-seat chamber.

Caroline van der Plas, head of the Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB) and an attractive coalition partner with the most seats in the Dutch senate, said she was open to join a coalition of those three parties. 

The left-wing bloc, led by former European Commission VP Frans Timmermans, has ruled out working with the far right. 

Once a potential coalition has been identified, the informateur appoints a formateur, usually the leader of the largest party, who is tasked with working out a coalition agreement.

If coalition talks between the country’s right-wing parties fail, a center-left cabinet is still possible — but wouldn’t be straightforward. 

Timmermans, whose Labour-Green alliance finished in second place with 25 seats, would be in charge of trying to find a majority if Wilders failed. Together with the VVD, NSC and the liberal D66 party they could form a centrist coalition with 78 seats, a slim majority. 

That would be a nightmare scenario for Wilders, who will do everything he can to prevent it. “It cannot be the case that because of a failed formation, Frans Timmermans will later run with it — that should not happen,” Wilders declared on election night. 

Something similar happened in the Netherlands in 1977, when Joop den Uyl won the election for the Labour Party, but the ensuing coalition talks failed. The VVD and the Christian Democrats then reached a deal to take power.

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